Monthly Archives: May 2014

Bring on the ‘electile dysfunction’

It was inevitable, perhaps, that one of the three GOP Senate candidates and/or their surrogates would go there. Last week, adman Art Hackney, who runs the pro-GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan super PAC, released an anti-Begich radio ad taking on the Begich campaign’s recent commercials that show him all virile-like, zooming on a snowmachine through the North Slope, talking about the ground being penetrated, rigs that are going to be raised, oil that’s going to be pumped, homestyle country twang in the backdrop, music that Hackney’s ad says sounds straight out of an “erectile dysfunction” commercial.

There is a House candidate in Ohio who has an ad that goes after Speaker John Boehner for “electile” dysfunction but I’d venture to say that Hackney’s ad is the first that takes ED straight on. In any case, once you’ve heard Hackney’s ad, you’ll never see the Begich commercial, or that awful ED commercial, in the same way again.

Speaking of dysfunctional: Alaska’s Republican Party convention is in Juneau this weekend. Juneau? Why there? Don’t you have to buy a plane ticket to get there? Isn’t it expensive? For the masses?

Exactly. As many in the state know, when you really want to get things done far from the eyes of the masses — and still want whiskey on the rocks to cap off your evening — you head to Juneau.

Some might remember how the masses, loosely called the tea party but with a uniquely Alaska twist, took over the party in 2012. Others remember all too well how it ended at a year later, when the vice chair turned chair changed the locks on the doors to the Anchorage GOP headquarters, skipped town and threatened legal action if anyone tried to pull a Watergate break-in.

For some, as a description of one rowdy populist campaign put it, it seemed like “the galoots were loose.”

The new chair, Peter Goldberg, may not be a galoot. But he isn’t gaining points for style, I’m told. He’s prone to bellowing, “Attention,” drill sergeant style when people aren’t alert enough for his tastes. “He needs to chill out,” I was told. Perhaps he’s suffering from something, something that could be cured with some music, maybe something homestyle, with a country twang.

Relatively tea-party free, the convention began in earnest at 7:30 a.m. on Friday with a Senate forum including all three Republican candidates, one of whom has the firm backing of the “Republican establishment,” who really want Treadwell and Miller out of the race so they can get on with beating Begich. To greet the bleary audience was a poll on each chair, showing Dan Sullivan leading the pack, the intent of which was to emasculate Miller and Treadwell. Reports say that both, however, appeared to stand erect and hold their own. Miller declined to say whether he would support the Republican nominee if it weren’t him. The crowd gasped.

No matter what you think about him, Miller doesn’t need any country twang in the background.

In any event, Goldberg was re-elected as chair and vice chair will be Frank McQueary, whose birthday was Saturday.

Speaking of holding their own, women can do so also, until they don’t. Rep. Lindsey Holmes, a Democrat who chose to turn Republican, will not run again for her seat in West Anchorage. Word is all the criticism for the switch was too much for her. A shame. She was a good legislator who knew how to pass good bills.

And then there’s Clare Ross, who was running against Holmes. She decided to make the switch to run for Senate and leave the seat to Matt Claman before Holmes announced that she was bowing out. Pollster and political consultant Ivan Moore said that Ross did so at the bequest of “Democratic Party pawn makers,” except that, because he’s a Brit, it came out as “Democratic porn makers.” Another shame. She also would have made a good legislator,

And we’ll be minus yet another strong woman soon. Enstar CEO Colleen Starring will be leaving Alaska for a job in Canada. No word on her replacement. Starring started her career as a receptionist and worked her way up through the male-dominated world of utilities. She’s tough, smart and beautiful and she’ll be missed.

Also leaving the state is Alaska House Minority Spokesman Mark Gnadt, who’s headed for Switzerland to take a job with a conservation organization. He’s not as beautiful as Colleen but he’s great at what he does and he’ll also be missed.

Finally, the governor’s race is heating up. Two super PACs have filed with APOC to get involved in the Alaska governor’s race by boosting the candidacy of Democratic candidate Byron Mallott (Mallott-One Alaska PAC) and independent candidate Bill Walker (Walker for Alaska’s Future). To date, no one has created one to support the campaign of Gov. Parnell, who appears to be raising enough money on his own that he doesn’t need a surrogate speaking for him.

Not yet, anyway. The election is eons away, with lots of time ripe for some “electile” dysfunction.

***

This column first appeared in the Anchorage Daily News

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Loose Lips: The GOPer convention edition

Judy Eledge I wasn’t there, but from what I’ve been told, things weren’t nearly as exciting this year at the Republican Party’s convention as they have been in the past. This is good for the party faithful but not necessarily for writers. Nonetheless, here are few highlights:

Judy Eledge, pictured, was resplendent.
With the exception of the vice chair, all of the party officials were elected by unanimous consent. Peter Goldberg was reelected as chair. Frank McQueary got a birthday present in the form of being elected vice chair over Christina Hill. The secretary is Deborah Klebs and the assistant secretary is the Anchorage Daily News columnist Lynn Curry.
Probably the most buzz-worthy moment at the convention was when Joe Miller said that he refused to commit to support the Republican nominee if it weren’t him. The crowd gasped.
Convention delegates found an executive summary of a poll on their chairs Friday morning when they arrived for the GOP U.S. Senate candidates’ forum. The poll results showed Senate candidate Dan Sullivan with a 16 percent lead over Mead Treadwell and a 26 percentage point lead over Joe Miller. The idea, of course, was to deflate the other candidates before the start of the forum and let the party faithful know who the clear GOP leader appeared to be. However, 38 percent of primary voters were still undecided. The poll also showed Sullivan within the margin of error but down against U.S. Sen. Mark Begich by 2 percentage points.
The guy who works for the Democratic group American Bridge 21st Century was asked to leave the convention. The guy, who declined to give me his name last time I saw him, follows Dan Sullivan around like a pilot fish, camcorder in hand, just waiting for him to say something that will go viral and make the Rachel Maddow show. And we wonder why political discourse had been reduced to sound bites.
All but seven of the GOP conventioneers voted yes to the following question: “Do you want to take back OUR seat from Mark ‘Baggage’ Begich?” This led Alaska Public Media reporter Alexandra Gutierrez to wonder on twitter: Who are those seven people?
There goes the youth vote: About 70 percent of the GOP delegates voted against an amendment to strike anti-gay language from the party’s platform. Likewise, a resolution to come out against the marijuana ballot initiative passed with 75 percent of the delegates supporting it.
Opposition to repealing SB 21 and support for school choice were also rallying cries. They were mum on minimum wage and on the Pebble initiative.
In the wake of Art Hackney’s Super pac’s mention of erectile dysfunction, the Republican Party convention’s auction Friday evening netted $1,400 for Don Young’s calcified walrus penis. A pair of Ted Steven’s 1972 cuff links went for $2,500.
Lite gov candiates Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan and state Sen. Lesil McGuire both were reported to have done very well at their forum. Mayor Dan was funny and McGuire smart.
As Republicans were getting along in Juneau, Begich’s campaign had a party for the opening of his Anchorage office. About 100 people came and went. Many, presumably, were volunteers and supporters, but some were likely there for the free hotdogs and burgers, which were served up by Begich himself. Begich volunteers also gathered in five other communities across the state, and were video-conferenced in.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Senate poll: GOP candidate Sullivan ahead of primary pack, even with Begich

A new poll, first released at the Alaska Republican Party annual convention in Juneau, shows that GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has a double-digit lead against the two other GOP contenders in the race, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller, with a large percent still undecided. It also finds that Alaska’s view of Sen. Mark Begich’s positive image has “tumbled” over the past months. As of the end of April when the poll was conducted, Begich was only two percentage points ahead of Sullivan in a general election.

The poll was conducted by Portland-based Moore Information, and was paid for by Sullivan. It was conducted April 27-28, in 500 live interviews on both landline and cell phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Moore is associated with Republicans and has a long history for polling for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young. The firm also polled for the late Sen. Ted Stevens.

The last time the firm polled early this year, Sullivan polled two percentage points behind Treadwell and ten points ahead of Joe Miller. By the end of April, however, 38 percent of primary voters were going to vote for Sullivan, while Treadwell would get 22 percent and Miller 12 percent. However, 29 percent of primary voters are still undecided, leaving lots of room for Treadwell and Miller to pick up support.

According to the poll, Begich’s positive image went from a net +17 positive to a net +5 today. “The more voters learn about Mark Begich and his ties to the Obama agenda, the less likely they are to hold a favorable impression of him and, conversely, the more likely to hold a negative opinion of him,” Moore’s Senior Vice President Hans Kaiser wrote in a narrative accompanying the poll.

Kaiser wrote that Begich’s vote on ObamaCare appears to be his most serious liability. Among undecided voters, 56 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate who supported Obamacare. More bad news for Begich: only 24 percent had a positive view of Obama while 63 percent had a negative view.

However, it’s impossible to say what those numbers really mean as the chart accompanying the poll didn’t show the total percentage points of undecided voters in the general election.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Holmes will not be seeking reelection to her House seat in West Anchorage

Anchorage Rep. Lindsey Holmes confirmed on Friday that she will not be seeking reelection to her House seat in West Anchorage.

“It was a hard decision because I love my job, and I feel really good about a lot of things I did as a legislator,” she said. Her heart, however, wasn’t 100 percent in it. She said she’s looking forward to working, spending time with her god kids, friends, and in the house that she loves.

Holmes switched from Democrat to Republican last year, and has received much criticism, and a recall effort, for doing so.

She doesn’t know what she’ll be doing now. She’s a lawyer and she’ll be looking for a job in the private sector, but she doesn’t have anything lined up.

As for party politics, she going to continue to be a Republican, and will help out Rep. Mia Costello in her run for state Senate, she said. She’d also like to help those who are working to oppose an oil tax repeal. She will not be supporting Matt Claman, the Democrat who is running for her seat.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandmacoyne@yahoo.com

Local economist calls ‘$2 billion giveaway’ a myth

The phrase, “$2 billion giveaway” that was coined by those who want to repeal oil tax reform, has been used so often, including by this writer, that for many it’s believed to be a fact. Often quoted, and much respected UAA economist Scott Goldsmith took a hard look at the number and came up with something very different in a report funded by Northrim Bank, which is against repeal but funds a wide variety of reports about all facets of the state’s economy.

The “$2 billion giveaway is a myth,” Goldsmith told a crowd of about 200 at the Resource Development Council meeting on Thursday morning

While it’s true that the state is running at about a $2 billion deficit, the oil tax break isn’t what’s driving most of it, he said.

For one, to the extent that there’s a “giveaway” at all, it’s closer to $90 million. Much of the rest of the money is a result of lower production, lower prices, and rapidly increasing costs to produce the oil, costs that the oil companies provide to the state, and which we need more information about, he said.

Secondly, in the long run, reform will stabilize the tax system. At some prices the amount of taxes the producers will pay will be more under the new tax regime than under ACES. At some price points, it will be less. Why do the companies like it so much that they are willing to spend tens of millions to make sure that it’s not repealed? Because they believe that it will increase production

“The producers are not in business to minimize taxes,” Goldsmith said, “They’re in the business to maximize profit.” And the best way to do that is to expand and to increase the size of their operations, he said. He likened it to his wife getting a job. The family’s tax bill will go up, but the household will have more income. “We’ll be better off. And the treasury will be better off as well.”

Read Goldsmith’s presentation here.

Vic Fischer, who is the head the effort to repeal SB 21, issued a press release following the presentation. He’s sticking to his guns. “Goldsmith misses the mark,” he said and pointed to the $2 billion deficit has his proof.

“What Alaska needs is a tax structure that increases exploration for new oil and gas, not just provide incentives to pump the oil they are contractually obligated to produce,” he wrote.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Anti-Begich ad likely first ever to use term ‘erectile dysfunction’

Anchorage-based adman Art Hackney isn’t known for making ads that are overly cautious. One of his most famous ones was about a gas reserves tax on the ballot in 2006. It starred himself holding a handgun, which he pointed downward and pulled the trigger. Cut to a still-smoking boot with a bullet hole through it. His most recent radio ad is pure Hackney, and is probably the very first ad for Senate in the country to use the term “erectile dysfunction.” Hackney runs the pro-Dan Sullivan super-PAC, Alaska’s Energy-America’s Values. In the ad, he rifts off of recent Begich commercials which show him zooming through the North Slope on a snowmachine, set to the backdrop music that Hackney describes as “straight out of an erectile dysfunction ad.” Listen to that one here. The other ad that he produced takes on Begich’s time as Anchorage mayor and continues with the “Malarkey Mark” theme Hackney began earlier this year. Listen to that here.
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