From a Bill Walker release to supporters:
This race is not yet over, but we remain optimistic that we will maintain our lead as absentee votes are counted in regional centers. We would not be on the cusp of victory without the diverse Alaskans who have stepped up to say they are ready for a change in leadership.
They’re also stepping up to get jobs, I’m told, none too soon:
If district voting trends keep up with the 20k uncounteds, Walker maintains his lead over Parnell. https://t.co/4KN47yHVH3 #akelect #akgov
— Alexandra Gutierrez (@alexgutierrez) November 6, 2014
From a Dan Sullivan campaign release to supporters:
Dan has won this race and he is the U.S. Senator-elect from the great state of Alaska.
Bill Walker is the winner. Parnell should concede so that Walker can begin the important transition work that will be needed as the first step of cleaning up Parnell’s mess.
Using statistical modeling from past races, we can expect slightly over 26,000 absentee and misc. questioned ballots. The LLN (Law of Large Numbers- a probability theorem) would predict based upon the numbers already generated from the 200,000 votes already cast and counted that the statistical probability of Parnell making up the 3,165 votes Walker is ahead at less than 1 out of 1000.
Some factors can influence how certain groups of absentee voters voted favoring one candidate over another, but the result will remain the same- an outcome with more Walker voters than Parnell voters. Absent fraud- which a statistical modeling would detect- Parnell needs to pack his bags.
The media would do well to better understand statistics. Readers deserve better reporting on such an important issue.
Look at how the AB/EV that have come scew. You’re dumb, just saying. Congratulations on exercising individual thought, Jk. Pick up a book, bro.
Why would early/absenteer voters skew more towards Begich? Yes, the earlies might be younger D voters racing down to vote for pot or min wage but that would be offset by R military and biz travelers voting absentee.
Alex’s Modeling is wrong. He’s not factoring in Absentee and Early Vote groups as their own metrics, which is a mistake. Does that mean Mark won? – Most likely not. But his numbers are not accurate, and if they were, Mark closes the gap some – it doesn’t get wider.
All votes will be counted, that’s the law. A concession announcement is not legally binding, all it does is allow certain mechanisms to be put in place. If Begich were to concede, transitional funds would be made available so that Sullivan can hire staff and start preparing. If a count would later come in that somehow pushed Begich ahead, the election would still be his.
You can always un-concede; ask Al Gore.
Because you voted early or voted absentee doesn’t mean you throw them out. All votes should be counted.