I missed this in my earlier coverage of the wide-ranging PPP poll: Question 1: If the election were today, how would you vote on SB 21 referendum?:
- Yes: 45 percent
- No: 34 percent
- Undecided: 21 percent.
A few things to keep in mind: It was a poorly conducted question. I’d wager that not many in the public know what SB 21 even is. (For those who don’t: it’s the oil tax repeal.) Also, PPP has been problematic in the past. However, the polls number in the Senate race track generally consistently with other poll numbers released.
I’ve tried to get a response from those who are working against the repeal. No luck.
While the columnist states that no none working against the repeal has responded, I’d say, “Look no further than the first three replies for their responses; meant to spin the report any way they can.”
While it’s true that a single-question poll isn’t sufficient for a thorough understanding of attitudes toward a given issue, the FACT is that a survey of 582 respondents , randomly selected by standard social science methodology, is more than adequate. Many paid-for polls in Alaska (Helenthal, Dittman, Moore, etc.) involve 400-450 respondents, and up to 600. PPP polls typically range from ~600 to 850.. with a margin of error of 3%-5%.
Perhaps 2 of the first 3 comments, representing ‘No on 1’s spin machine, would like to take another stab at it. I’m guessing none of the three has had any serious social science research training even at a bachelor’s level, let alone a higher degree… or they’re purposefully ignoring it, and misstating the reality. What I’d wager they -did- have was a call from someone at ‘No on 1’ asking them to quickly torpedo this column’s posting.
I hope Alaksakns aren’t dumb enough to repeal SB 21. Look around. People are working because SB 21 is working. Repeal SB 21 and the union halls will fill with unemployed workers, businesses will lay off workers, your home values will fall and the state will slip into a recession. The problem is our oil fields are in dexline. We need to increase production and now. Support SB 21.
People want free stuff and who better than an oil company to provide it? Don’t people (including polticians) just love to vote “yes” on issues that provide the seemingly free stuff? If you doubt that please remember the results of most votes to increase bonded indebtedness at both the state and local levels and our recent state budgets. .
If this pole is anywhere near accurate and if “undecided” means “uniformed” then the opponents of repeal have a struggle before them. Even the uniformed can appreciate that decreasing taxes on
“Big Oil” results immediatley in less revenue for the purchase of free stuff for them and now they are hearing that the state is a little short of cash.
So far, for the opponents of repeal of SB21, fear doesn’t seem to be working as a motivator to vote “NO”.
PPP polls are such a mess theu are hardly worth looking at. The sampling size is usually errored, the questions poorly asked and usually simply wrong. This will be a close race but nothing like this poll.