A poll paid for by independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker shows that Walker is just one point behind Gov. Sean Parnell, if the two were able to go head-to-head in the general election without a third candidate. However, throw Democratic candidate Byron Mallott into the mix, and Parnell beats Walker by about 14 percent and Mallott by 26 percent. When Mallott and Parnell are put together, Parnell wins by about 21 percent. (The questions and results are below.)
The take-away, according to Ivan Moore, who conducted the poll: “Byron Mallott is not going to win, even if he were running in a two-way race.” However, if Mallott were to drop out, Walker could “very easily win,” Moore said, but the chances are less likely if Mallott stays in the race.
There’s been no indication that Mallott will end his run.
Moore surveyed 584 likely voters statewide on both landline and cell phones between June 19-23. The margin of error is 4.05%. The party affiliation of those surveyed was roughly 15 percent Democrat, 28 percent Republican, 5 percent other party, and 51.7 percent non-affiliated.
In a release, Walker said that the numbers are proof that his grass roots efforts are paying off.
“We have sixteen campaign co-chairs from all regions of Alaska – – from Bella Hammond in Lake Clark to Clem Tillion in Halibut Cove to Shirley Marquardt in Unalaska to Roger Hickel in Anchorage,” he wrote. “In every nook and cranny of the state, Alaskans are requesting bumper stickers, campaign signs and T-shirts.”
He said that the results “explain Parnell’s recent personal attacks on me through social media and in his campaign emails and presentations.”
He’s referring to comments Parnell said about Walker’s campaign following an op-ed written by independent lieutenant governor hopeful Craig Fleener, who’s running with Walker. Fleener wrote that Parnell didn’t attend a National Congress of American Indians because he was “caught in traffic.”
Parnell’s campaign swung back at Fleener, calling him a “liar.” Parnell was in fact out of town, attending his in-laws’ anniversary, and had declined the invitation well in advance.
Here’s the questions and the results:
1) If the 2014 General election for Governor was held today, and the candidates
were ____ for whom would you vote for Governor?
Bill Walker, Independent: 28.5%
Sean Parnell, Republican: 42.3%
Byron Mallott, Democrat: 16.1%
Not sure: 13.2%
2) How about if the candidates were _____ for whom would you vote for Governor?
Bill Walker, Independent: 45.1%
Sean Parnell, Republican: 46.3%
Not sure: 8.6%
3) How about if the candidates were _____ for whom would you vote for Governor?
Byron Mallott, Democrat: 34.0%
Sean Parnell, Republican: 54.9%
Not sure: 11.1%
Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com
Compare Ballotpedia’s coverage with Wikipedia’s. The latter reads like a not-so-thinly-veiled advertisement for Public Policy Polling, whose polling is not too far afield from what you would expect from a Demo/RINO tool like Ivan Moore. Try there if not PPP’s website.
The way the game has been played for many years is that candidates are expected to go out and raise a whole pile of money to feed the vultures. Anyone not willing to play that game can and should expect to be shunned and ignored, with the aforementioned vultures leading the charge. In recent years, elections are almost entirely driven by advertising, polls and press conferences/releases. Voters are looked upon as having no role other than to dutifully show up at the polls and validate this impersonal, media/money-driven campaigning. The summer solstice street fair here in Fairbanks arguably draws more people each year than showed up to see Palin hand over the reins to Parnell. It was very telling to see which candidates showed up and which ones didn’t.
the other possibilities are real possibilities. Yours is not.
I agree 1000%… common sense to those who just see…
it`s all Parnell`s campaign people can do..as he is tongue-tied apparently, and afraid to factually defend his policies and the mode and manner in which they were conflicted into being.
. the relevance is plain. One way Alaska wins. The other it loses it`s sovereignty.
“Parnell’s campaign swung back at Fleener, calling him a “liar.” Parnell was in fact out of town, attending his in-laws’ anniversary, and had declined the invitation well in advance”.
There is something incongruous in that conclusion and assumption that “everybody knew” he or someone in his name was not going to show.
Why was the Governor listed as the keynote speaker?… somebody expected him, as his name was called out in introduction…. and,..not even a lowly commissioner showed up to welcome the visitors to the congregation of natives. Nobody was there to represent him. They can try to make this glaring disrespect all about Fleener`s mistake,..but they will be “missing the forest for the trees”. It`s about an oily uncaring ambitious politician on the payroll of big oil,..now and always. I`m tired of these folks calling the shots in my state.http://juneauempire.com/stories/102807/let_20071028011.shtml
Yes, all who are candidates should be afforded equal treatment by the press. It is not the job of the press to determine whether or not a candidate is viable. It is up to the voters. Just as you expect your comments to be covered in public forums such as this, I expect all candidates voices to be heard in the public forum.
How is reporting a story about a poll not being objective? Are you seriously suggesting that all candidates on the ballot, regardless of their fringe status, be mentioned as equals?
Simon says: Can’t understand how a poll done by a professional pollster gathers this much bile. Most polls are paid for by political contestants to see where they are during the election cycle. This was no different. Looks like Walker is making great progress in his campaign. I draw no other conclusions.
What’s wrong with that, Dave ?
Too bad this is a FIVE way race. This type of poll is misleading at best. The numbers will NOT break down according this poll come November. I also thought Amanda was going to cover the elections in a more objective way. I was wrong. Each post reveals your bias Amanda.
What are you talking about? The story is about a new poll, right? And the poll shows a close race between Parnell and Walker, right? So how do you justify your criticism? Just because you may disagree with the poll, or dislike what it shows, hardly makes the headline “ridiculously slanted, biased and misleading.” That you then presume to accuse Amanda of making it misleading intentionally says much more about you and your agenda than it does about the quality of journalism here.
What is the relevance of a fantasy situation? This is a 3 way race. If this is the best spin Walker’s pollster can provide, I’d suggest that all Walker will be is a foot note in the history of Alaska as an also ran.
Parnell used to be so vague but now that he has been in office for a term, Alaskans now know where he stands on a few issues:
– for anything big oil,
– for big spending of the state budget,
– for extraction of resources without public imput,
– thinks the world is 6,000 yrs old,
– avoids Alaska Natives,
– would rather be sitting on a church pew, calculating how much his donation can be a written off on taxes, if and when he increases his lobbying fees for big oil…
Parnell’s personal attacks on Walker Fleener are ongoing:
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152946977600299&id=166487965298
Ivan reminds me of the character of Jonah on the HBO series “Veep”. Both are awkward, canny, oversized buffoons with no dignity and very little grace.
My favorite line of his: “What do you want the poll to show?”
Any links to the other numbers you are talking about?
Well, I’ll take Ivan Moore’s numbers to the bank. NOT.
This is really interesting. Ivan seems to have taken the last PPP poll, flipped Mallott’s numbers with Walker’s, kept Parnell within the margin of error and then fabricated the head to head numbers. Did you think yo ask Ivan what precipitated such a movement in the polls? The reason I ask, there is nothing that has been significant enough or stong enough to drive tis type of flip in the numbers this far before the election. Think about it.
News Flash: Bill Walker breaks world record in one mile run according to Ivan Moore. Well, it must be true. NOT.
Up until now, I held you out to be the one journalist that was fair and unbiased. After this article, I would be telling a lie. Your headline is ridiculously slanted, biased and misleading (by intent I assume).
Your headline iis an embarrassment to your site. I don’t feel like your coverage of the gubernatorial race is fair any longer.
The reason that question wasn’t asked was because there is no possible world in which the election is held between Bill Walker and Byron Mallott. How would that be a useful question to answer? And on what basis are you making the claim that Mallott has a chance? I agree that the pollster is suspect; Moore has a Walker sign in his front yard, but that just means it should be re-checked by someone else.
Bill Walker claims that of the nine forums held for candidates for Governor, Parnell has participated in two of them. As usual Sean Parnell is refusing to engage, to any meaningful degree, in discussion of the issues facing this state or to justify his decisions over the last five years. He tried his “issue avoidance” tactic with Don Young which earned him his endearing title of “Captain Zero”.
I see control of overspending as the most significant challenge for the next Governor. Governor Parnell did not line item veto, as the Constitution allows him to do, one penny from the last State budget. Those who love to repeat the conclusion of Professor Goldsmith that SB 21 did not cause a significant loss of revenue seem not so keen to mention Goldsmith’s testimony before Senate Finance on March 25th that the State of Alaska is now spending its cash reserves at the rate of 7 million dollars per day or just over 2 billion dollars per year. These same folks also tend to ignore the warnings of Brad Keithley regarding state spending or pay attention to Mr. Keithley’s explanations of how moving cash outlays within the state budget can be used to deceive if all you focus on is the category of expenditure that was reduced and ignore the category that was increased.
If the majority of Alaskans who are registered to vote as “Undeclared” and “Nonpartisan” demand debates, demand statements of policy on state issues, refuse to accept a vague promise of some future project that will reverse the revenue drain, and then finally demand a detailed justification from the current Governor on why he absolutely failed to curb spending by the legislature by use of the line item veto; Alaska will have a new Governor.
This poll was made by Bill Walker. If you look at the survey, the only question not asked “Who would win between Bill Walker and Byron Mallot” Thats right. It doesn’t say that because he doesn’t want anyone to know the answer to that. Mallot still has a fighting chance against Walker. I wouldn’t write him off just so quickly.
Unfortunately that would conflict with the Begich strategy of using Mallott’s native identity to help him win re-election, and so won’t happen.
Confirms what a lot of us have been suspecting.. Fleener should make an offer to give up his spot on the ticket to Byron Mallott. It would avoid the appearance that Walker was kicking him off, help his reputation, be the best chance that Mallott or Walker have at elected office this cycle, and there’d be plenty of cushy commissioner jobs available for Fleener come December.