Below is a summary of the most recent PPP polls, which shows GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan up 1 percent, gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker up by 1, Rep. Don Young by 6. Also a recent Rasmussen Reports poll has Walker up by 7 and Sullivan up by 5. Caution: both PPP and Rasmussen use robo-calls to conduct their surveys. That’s not to say that robo-polling is always bad, it’s just at this stage of the season, when Alaska is so over-polled, I can’t imagine that machines are getting good samples.
Here’s PPP’s summary:
The Alaska Senate race is even tighter than the one in Colorado, with Dan Sullivan leading Mark Begich just 46/45 with the full field and 47/46 in a head to head contest. Begich leads 50/36 with independents and has 91% of the Democratic vote behind him to just 81% of Republicans who are for Sullivan. The picture in this race is pretty steady- Sullivan led by 2 points on our last poll in September. Begich has a very strong ground game and it could be enough to put him over the top.
The Alaska Governor’s race is similarly tight with independent Bill Walker holding a 1 point lead over Republican incumbent Sean Parnell, 46/45. Walker held a 1 point lead in September as well. Voters are very closely divided on Parnell’s job performance with 44% approving of him to 45% who disapprove. On the other hand voters like Walker with 45% rating him favorably to 26% with a negative view.
The contest that’s seen a lot of movement in Alaska since September is the House race. Don Young now leads by just 6 points at 47/41, after having previously held a 15 point advantage at 48/33. His various incidents in the last month seem to be taking a toll.
Special polling in large population area of Alaska found Walker winning by a SIGNIFICANT margin.
Frank – What criminal conduct are you referring to? And what is the statute of limitations for these particular crimes?
Amanda – you haven’t heard that Dan is pro-domestic violence and sexual assault? Of course he did everything in his power to prevent justice. Par for the course.
PP is interesting: so of those surveyed, 74% of people who voted Obama in 2012 are now voting for Walker-Mallott.
Dittman research has the best record in AK, but he’s not polling right now. I tend to trust the bigger outfits (CNN, Fox, etc), but I think that the state is so polled out right now that all samples are tarnished.
Frank. Where are you getting your information re Sullivan and National Guard?
I find it strange that you have been so supportive of Sullivan, who helped Parnell block any effective investigation and prosecution of the Guard problems, particularly the pervasive failures to deal with rampant sexual abuse of female members. Sullivan also followed in the tradition of Colberg in that he persistently blocked Alaska Open Records Act requests, successfully keeping embarrassing public information from being publicly disclosed. How does that reconcile with your being a reporter? Geraghty has continued that stonewalling. I’m going to be delighted to be able to finally find out what the state government apparatchiks have been hiding, but the statute of limitations has expired on many prosecutable offenses that were kept from exposure by this disgraceful conduct, and the criminals involved have been effectively protected.
According to 538, Alaska polls skew Democrat on average 7.3%.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-alaska-a-frontier-for-bad-polling/
Amanda, in your opinion, is there any one polling group that has consistently come close to being accurate in Alaska races? These national ones seem all over the board.
Ladies and Gents, for what it’s worth:
Carnac the Magnificent has looked into the future and has the final results as follows:
Sullivan: by 8%
Young: by 2% (he wins this one but will retire prior to the end of his term)
Walker: by14%
Measure 2: 50.5% will require a recount but will pass
Measure 3: by 8%
Measure 4: by 14%