In his new ESPN blog, poll cruncher Nate Silver says that because of President Obama’s low poll numbers and the GOP’s recruitment successes, Republicans now have a slight chance to take over the Senate.
In his last thorough analysis of the race in the summer, Silver had classified the Senate as a toss-up. He gave U.S. Sen. Mark Begich a 60 percent probability of winning the state. Silver still continues to favor Begich, but that probability has shrunk some. Now, he gives Begich a 55 percent probability of winning the race.
Caution: Silver, who doesn’t poll himself but crunches the polls of others, has been wrong about Alaska before.
Here’s what he says about the current race:
Alaska might be the hardest race to forecast. The polling there is often erratic. The state has voted Republican for president every year since 1968, but its independent streak sometimes translates differently in other races. The Democratic incumbent, Mark Begich, might face an establishment candidate in Daniel S. Sullivan, the former attorney general, or Mead Treadwell, the lieutenant governor — or he could face Joe Miller, the former judge and tea party activist who is unpopular beyond the Republican base.
Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com
We’re not already?
Yes, I agree with RTY. Begich doesn’t do a good job of attacking Sullivan, in no small part because we expect the incumbent to talk about and defend his record. Moreover, we need to know why he almost always votes to help Reid and Obama when he knows darn well that is the opposite of what most Alaskans want him to do. Oh well, we will all be very tired of all this before November.
It appears that Begich is being hurt by Obama. Furthermore, since Silver’s last analysis, Sullivan has entered the race and is proving to be a real and viable candidate. The tracking data confirms this. Begich is on a fall and Sullivan’s numbers are climbing. No wonder Begich is busy attacking Sullivan almost daily.