Contrary to other polls that have been recently released (see here, here, and here), an internal poll conducted by Moore Information, a Portland-based firm that’s polling for GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign, has Sullivan holding a 4 percentage point lead over Sen. Mark Begich, 42 to 38 percent, while 12 percent are still undecided. Third-party candidates Mark Fish and Ted Gianoutsos each are getting 4 percent of the vote.
The poll surveyed 500 voters October 26-28, via cell phone and land line. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
The pollster for Moore, Hans Kaiser, has a long history of polling for Alaska Republicans, including for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Sen. Ted Stevens.
The crosstabs weren’t available, but Kaiser’s memo accompanying the poll said that Sullivan is leading among men 16 points and is trailing by 7 points with women. Kaiser also said that Sullivan has a significant advantage among those most interested in the race. According to Kaiser, the intensity is squaring with the partisan makeup of early voter turnout. Here’s the numbers he’s crunched from Alaska Division of Elections, as of 10.27:
- 35% GOP
- 18.5% Democrat
- 20.2% Non-Partisan
- 23.7% Undeclared
- 2.5% Other
I think we can agree that a huge problem with polling is the number of people who don’t have land lines and I think the more cell phone users polls reach out to, the better polls capture a younger, less traditional demographic. That said, all these polls say “land lines and cell phones” but since they don’t release the specifics what are we to make of that? 490 land lines and 10 cell phones? What’s the breakdown, and is it reflective of the current makeup of Alaska? We’ll find out soon enough I suppose.
Usually not a good sign when a campaign releases an internal that shows them leading but in this case, the date is probably valid and the release is a reaction to the last 2 polls showing Begich leading that were highly suspect.
Ok, guys and gals; Does anyone have any idea how the undeclared and the non-partisan generally wind up voting?
I could venture a WAG but I’m hoping for something a little more informed.
@Amanda, thanks in advance for the additional info.
I don’t. Will make some calls. BTW: I totally screwed up the partisan makeup. Cut and paste didn’t paste well. Fixed now.
Amanda, do you happen to know if early voter turnout in Alaska has been high / average / low as compared to earlier years?