Below is a summary from local pollster Ivan Moore’s most recent survey question–paid for by gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker– which shows Walker-Mallott up against Parnell-Sullivan by more than 9 percentage points, or by a whopping 13 percentage points, depending on what sample is used. Only about 5 percent are undecided. Others polls have the race much closer, and the undecided voters much greater. Moore has also been outspoken supportive of the formation of the ticket and has held a fundraiser at his house for Walker-Mallott.
Survey fielded Oct 24-26, 600 sample RV, with two likely voter subsamples… the broader 544 sample and the tighter 330 sample that is more representative of voter turnout.
If the November 2014 General election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor was held today and the candidates were (ROTATE NAMES) Bill Walker and Byron Mallott, Unaffiliated, Sean Parnell and Dan Sullivan, Republican, Carolyn Clift and Andrew Lee, Libertarian and JR Myers and Maria Rensel, Alaska Constitution Party… for whom would you vote for Governor and Lieutenant Governor?
544 sample (MOE + 4.2%)
Walker/Mallott 49.6%
Parnell/Sullivan 40.2%
Other candidates 4.7%
Undecided 5.5%330 sample (MOE + 5.4%)
Walker/Mallott 52.6%
Parnell/Sullivan 39.5%
Other candidates 3.4%
Undecided 4.5%
Clarification: The original piece said that Moore is most well known for polling for unions, which Moore took exception to. I took it out because he proved his case. He has done lots of work for the NEA, but not so much for other unions.
Has Moore ever gotten a poll right? This is his wish list not what might happen. Alaska is going in the “right” direction and I hope people don’t screw it up on election day.
Is this the Ivan Moore or the Shannyn Moore poll?
And I’m hopeful to find a goose that lays golden eggs. In the meantime, I’m going to have to keep living in the real world.
Maybe the City of Valdez is the next best thing to a golden egg laying goose? It certainly has been for Bill Walker.
Parnell has taken down their endorsement from the Alaska Federation of Republican Women off his Facebook page. Guess that means they have had a change in heart.
Wow! That’s surprising the lead is so big. I thought they were ahead, but by a few points maybe. I don’t know why people are claiming Ivan Moore showed any bias in this poll. He showed you exactly what he asked people. I’m unaligned and have been unsure for a while now, but I’m fed up with partisan politics that get little done while fighting their party lines. I’m very hopeful that Walker/Mallott will lead the way into a new wave of non partisan politics across the country.
If Walker didn’t make any money off the Port, why doesn’t he release his tax info as well as that of his law firm? I also have questions about the health of a 72 year old man, where are his medical records?
I don’t know anything about pollster ethics, if in fact they exist, but I know something about statistics. The pollster calls to our house went from 4 to 5 a day to just about none as soon as we voted. There are statistically valid tests to overcome that but they are neither cheap nor easy. You see, continuing these tiny samples, which is questionable in its own right, requires the underlying assumption that early voters will vote for candidates in exactly the same proportions as the voters being polled, and that assumption is untested for 2014. Otherwise continuing to sample the voters who have yet to vote while each day some voters go ahead and vote early makes the entire unaltered poll results invalid.
Regardless of that one wrench in the works, Alaska polling is a specious science at best. Last week while driving around with a list of places that needed yard signs I was on foot with my dog and we were charged by a large black bear sow and her two cubs. I slowly backed away but had my .44 out. (Thank goodness Alaska is a place where you can distribute yard signs while wearing a revolver.) She stood her ground but came no closer than the length of a pickup. If I had needed to shoot her I would have reported to amandacoyne.com what her entrails said about the upcoming elections. The dog is still angry we don’t have 3 bears in the freezer.
I support Walker/Mallott-2014
We have some surprise good news for Alaska…
We have identified an altogether different TRILLION DOLLAR Market for Alaska’s gas,
and it does not require building a bloated boondoggle megaproject gasline.
…it can be started with a simple phone call.
Playing Poker with Parnell is like playing poker with Soapy Smith…
…see ya on Juneau Wharf !!
…this is NO BS, it’s a much bigger game changer than Siluria making gasoline from methane for $1/gallon…
http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Natural-gas-to-1-gasoline-5701521.php
I forgot about that fundraiser. Story’s updated. As for the ethical questions, I have no idea. Will google around some.
Don’t forget that Ivan Moore has been listed as a co-host for Walker-Mallott fundraisers.
@Amanda – Is it common for pollsters to write attack pieces and fundraise for candidates? I would think the polling industry would considered it unethical.