Category Archives: news

Anchorage Rep. Mia Costello to run against Sen. Hollis French

Anchorage Rep. Mia Costello is nearly, almost, pretty well decided that she’ll be running against Hollis French for his Senate seat, depending of course, on what the new districts in the ongoing redistricting imbroglio plays out, she said.

If the district holds, it’ll be a tough race for French, who is one of the most outspoken Democrats in the Legislature. Republicans have been eyeing his West Anchorage seat for years and paid special attention to his district during redistricting. Had they chosen a better candidate last election cycle, they might have had it. As is it was, Bob Bell, who was Alaska Republican Party Chairman Randy Ruedrich’s pick, turned out to be all kinds of problematic.

Costello has been in has been a state rep since 2011. She’s a Harvard grad, and the first Alaskan to qualify to try out for Olympic swimming in 1988. Her husband was the second Alaskan. She’s well liked in her district, where she does really truly live. But she’s not known to be the best fundraiser, a skill that French has down.

The Alaska Support Industry Alliance, the group that supports the oil companies, will hold Costello’s first fundraiser, which will likely set the tone for the race. French, no doubt, will run on repealing the recently passed oil tax break and Costello will defend it and voters, again and as always, will be confused.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Fiscal conservative Nancy Dahlstrom gets another government job

Former Eagle River state Rep. Nancy Dahlstrom who ran Gov. Sean Parnell’s Anchorage office is now going to work for the Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development. She’ll serve as the Executive Director of Serve Alaska, an organization that brings AmeriCorps’ programs to Alaska.

You might remember that Dahlstrom left the Alaska state Legislature in 2010 in order to fill the newly created job of military liaison, which as it turns out, was against the law. Dan Sullivan, who was then the state’s attorney general, deemed that the Alaska Constitution doesn’t allow legislators to accept jobs created while they are in office. She resigned less than a month later. After an appropriate amount of time had passed, Parnell hired her to run his Anchorage office.

You also might remember that Dahlstrom ran as the “real” fiscal and social conservative alternative to Lisa Murkowski for the House seat. She lost the race against Lisa, but was appointed to her seat by father Frank after Frank appointed Lisa to fill his seat in the U.S. Senate.

One of many Republican politicians on the public dole railing against government spending, Dahlstrom has been a state worker since 2001, with the exception of a short stint at Providence Hospital between government jobs.

During her first year as a fiscally conservative legislator, she spent three times what Murkowski did on travel and twice as much for all discretionary expenses.  And she and a majority of her fiscally conservative Republican colleagues voted for ACES, the largest increase in oil taxes in the state’s history.

Word is that she’s eyeing Sen. Fred Dyson’s seat. Perhaps working on the state dime to administer a federal program that has been repeatedly derided by fiscal conservatives will allow her ample time to do so.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Thank God it’s Friday’s random facts

WHAT ALASKA’S WATCHING: A map recently unveiled by YouTube shows the most watched videos in real time across the country. The videos being watched can be filtered according to the number of views or shares, as well as by gender and age of viewers. On May 17, at 6:30 a.m, the most popular video being watched across the country, including in Alaska, was Greg Karber’s video called “Abercrombie & Fitch Gets a Brand Readjustment #FitchTheHomeless.” Take a wild guess what that’s about. The second most popular was a video shot by Kenai Penninsula’s Brad Josephs entitled “A grizzly Ate My GoPro!!!” Watch it to see what a bear’s tongue really looks like. A video of a revised version of David Bowie’s Space Oddity, recorded by Commander Chris Hadfield on board the International Space Station, was third. Source: YouTube.

NOT SUCH A NICE PLACE TO LIVE: Camden, New Jersey (population appr. 77,000) is the poorest city in the United States. More than 40 percent of the city’s population lives below the federal poverty line. It’s also one of the most dangerous places in America. There were 67 murders there in 2012. The violence is mostly attributed to gang wars and a robust illegal drug trade. Source: The Economist, May 11, 2013.

TELL THE FOLKS IN CAMDEN:  Gun violence in America is down. There were 11,101 homicides in 2011, down 39 percent from 1993. Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics report released May 7, 2013.

DOCTORS RAKING IT IN: Alaska has the highest healthcare costs for services in the country. A 2010 study found rates in Alaska were up to 192 percent of what they are for the same services in Washington state. In Alaska, doctors get reimbursed through Medicaid $1,141.23 for cataract surgery, to name just one procedure. In Washington, it’s $394.44. Source: Alaska’s Health Care Commission.

SURGEONS REALLY RAKING IT IN: Alaska has the most expensive workers’ compensation premiums and is number one in medical costs for workers. It pays surgeons 482 percent of the Medicare rate. For instance, worker’s comp will pay a doctor $4,181 for knee surgery in Alaska (nearly four times what it reimburses under Medicaid). In Washington, it’s $869, and in Hawaii it’s $693. It’ll pay $2,339 for an MRI in Alaska. In Washington it pays $769, and in Hawaii $634. Source: Alaska’s  Worker’s Compensation Medical Services Review Commission.

BURN BABY BURN: Believe it or not, global warming is real. Carbon-dioxide concentrations recently hit their highest level in 4 million years. Earlier this month, the atmosphere around the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, for the first time, hit record setting 400 ppm measurements of CO2. The last time such values prevailed was in the Pliocene Epoch when jungles covered northern Canada. Source : New York Times, NOAA. 

PREAKNESS GALS: Only five fillies have won the Preakness in the race’s history. They are Flocarline in 1903, Whimsical in 1906, Rhine Maiden in 1915, Nellie Morse in 1924 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. Source: Pimlico Race Track, Baltimore. 

FRUITS OF OFFICE: Running a foreign government can be quite profitable for those with, say, questionable ethics. Here are some rough estimates of corruptly obtained assets by notable world leaders: Muammar Quaddafi (Libya 1969 – 2011) $30 – $80 billion; Suharto (Indonesia 1967 – 98) $15 – $35 billion; Sani Abacha (Nigeria 1993 -98) $2 – $5 billion ; Ferdinand Marcos (Phillipines 1965 -86) $5 – $10 billion; Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali (Tunisia. 1987 – 2011) $3 – $5 billion; Jean Claude Duvalier (Haiti 1971 – 86) $0.3 – $0.8 billion; and Hosni Mubarak (Egypt 1981 – 2011) $1 – $70 billion. As you can see, that’s some pretty impressive looting. Source: Transparency International and the International Centre for Asset Recovery.

HOW IMPORTANT IS ALASKA TO THE BIG THREE? Number of times Alaska was mentioned during ExxonMobil’s first quarter conference call in April: 0. Number of times Alaska was mentioned during BP’s first quarter conference call: 0. Number of times Alaska was mentioned during ConocoPhillips first quarter conference call: 15. Source: SeekingAlpha.Com.

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Thank God it’s Friday’s random facts

NICE GOVERNMENT WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT: There are ten state workers that together have approximately 35,000 hours of leave, worth $1.8 million. And they get to cash this out anytime they want. Source: Alaska Department of Administration

THINGS YOU DIDN’T KNOW ABOUT OUR PRESIDENTS: Grover Cleveland was a hangman prior to moving into the oval office. The S in Harry S. Truman’s middle name didn’t stand for anything. Richard Nixon proposed to his wife on their first date. The 38th president was named Leslie Lynch King Jr. at birth and later renamed Gerald Ford. Source: mentalfloss.com

THE SPOILS OF ALASKA WATERS: In 2010, Alaskans held 76 percent or 15,477 of all 20,275 Alaska commercial fishing permits. However, Outside permit-holders earned about 55 percent of the roughly $1.5 billion gross earnings from Alaska’s fisheries in both state and federal waters. Source: Alaska’s Commercial Fisheries Commission.

SIZE MATTERS: The University of Tennessee’s. Neyland Stadium currently has a seating capacity at 102,455 seats, which makes it the largest stadium in the Southeastern Conference. You can just imagine how that might upset Texas football fans because they’re always are talkin’ about how they have the biggest this and that. Anyhow, to make those cowboys happy, Texas A&M has announced that they intend to expand seating at Kyle Field to 102,500. That means Texas A&M’s stadium will soon be the biggest in the Conference, boasting a whole 45 seats more than the Tennessee Volunteers. Source: Texas A&M University, University of Tennessee.

TEENS AND SOCIAL NETWORKS: 33 percent turn to Facebook, 30 percent prefer twitter, 20 percent choose YouTube and 17 percent use Instagram. Source: Piper Jaffray.& Company (Investment Bankers).

ANOTHER NAIL IN THE ALASKA’S BIG LINE COFFIN: Exxon Mobil and Qatar Petroleum announced on Thursday that they reached an agreement to move forward with construction of a $10B natural gas export terminal in Texas. The partners reportedly plan to ship as much as 15.6M metric tons of gas annually from the Golden Pass facility. Source: Bloomberg News.

TELL THEM HOW YOU REALLY FEEL: In Nevada, you can vote for “none of the above.” Source: Nevada Division of Elections. 

NO SPECIAL SESSION REQUIRED:  The legislative session in Iowa is either 100 days or 110 days, depending on the year. This year, state legislators were supposed to gavel out on April 17 but they didn’t get all their work done. So they’re still going at it in Des Moines, the state capital. And they’re doing so without receiving per diem, something unheard of in Alaska. Source: Amanda Coyne reporting from Iowa.

NICE GOVERNMENT WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT II: Alaska legislators are paid an annual salary of $50,400 and they get $238 or $253 per diem, depending on the time of year. That’s the highest per diem rate in the country. Iowa legislators are paid $25,000 a year and get $135 a day in per diem while the legislature is in session. Source: National Conference of State Legislators.

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Should Alaskans trust recent PPP poll on gun control?

I’m a little late on reporting on the PPP poll released last week which shows both U.S. Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Mark Begich having lost support in Alaska because of their opposition to the gun control bill. And if that and other polls about gun control conducted by PPP and paid for by a Democratic group wasn’t continuing to make headlines, I might continue to be late forever.

I’d chalk that poll up, as I have other PPP polls, to the kind of crackpot group that you find on both sides of the political spectrum intent on spreading propaganda and false narratives.

But the media can’t seem to get enough of the PPP gun polls, which have been conducted in at least five states, and are dutifully reported on even as some of the polls’ findings are patently absurd. Get this: according to PPP, only about 35 percent of Alaskans oppose expanded background checks.

Alaska-based Dittman Research, which tends to get these things right, recently conducted a poll for Alaska’s House majority which shows only 23 percent of Alaskans supported Obama’s efforts to tighten gun control laws, with 67 percent approving state legislative actions to oppose those efforts.

Was the PPP poll conducted solely on Homer residents or did it only poll those who live in Rep. Les Gara’s House district? We’ll never know because geographical location is among many things that are left out of the crosstabs.

I don’t know much about the other states that PPP has polled and I haven’t looked much into the crosstabs of the polls from those other states, but if they are as full of sample errors as the poll conducted in Alaska, then not one poll conducted by PPP should be taken seriously, perhaps ever again.

Here’s a few blatant examples of what a botched polling sample looks like, a la PPP:

  • Gender: Alaska is roughly 50 percent male to female, but the firm sampled 56 percent women to 44 percent men.
  • Party affiliation: Of the total registered voters in Alaska, only 14 percent are registered Democrats. About 27 percent are registered Republicans. The sample size that PPP used was 25 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans.
  • “Independents/other.” About 53 percent of registered voters are registered “undeclared,” and “nonpartisan.” Then there’s the Alaska Independence Party, which is a whole other breed of people, and the Libertarians.  The two of them make up about 6 percent of voters. The PPP’s sample lumps them all together, calls them “Independent/other,” and only uses a 45 percent sample size.

The errors go on. Let me be clear here: I think that Begich’s voting against his party on gun control was a decision based on political expediency more than principle. Everyone knows that Begich isn’t a gun enthusiast. He likely doesn’t believe that the federal government is going to invade homes of gun owners, or that a foreign force is going to somehow take over the military industrial complex, capture our soldiers and leave the defense of the homeland to those in the Kenai amassing assault weapons.

What Begich does care about and what he’s good at is politics and about getting reelected. His vote against gun control was evidence of that.

The upcoming Senate race is going to be a monster. Joe Miller has announced that he’s running, but the race will likely also draw a handful of good, solid Republicans like Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who’s already in exploratory committee phase, and DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is said to be getting close to making a decision. A vote for gun control would have likely put the end to Begich’s Senate career.

So he had a choice: stand on principle and vote with his party, or lose the race and become the last Democratic senator Alaskans will likely see in this lifetime.

He might lose anyway, but now he stands a chance with the help of some Republicans and independent voters. What he doesn’t need is for some left leaning polling group, a group tied to the party to which Begich belongs, trying to sell a lie, in a state where many think that the left are a bunch of liars anyway.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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The ‘quiet governor’ creates noise

Early evening Friday announcements are normally reserved for bad news and document dumps. So, that Gov. Sean Parnell would announce his future intentions on a Friday after 5 p.m. struck many, including this writer, as flatfooted. Then again, Parnell’s not known for his ability to generate excitement. In fact Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell once called him a “quiet governor” in front of a group of businessmen and officials from all across the globe visiting Alaska to discuss opportunities in the Arctic. The president of Iceland was there. Parnell was somewhere else being quiet.

But sometimes—well at least once anyway—he gets it right. In the weeks leading up to Parnell’s announcement, nearly all of Alaska’s political establishment had assumed that he would forgo a run for U.S. Senate against Sen. Mark Begich and instead stay the course. But in the hours leading up to Parnell’s 5:50 p.m. announcement in Fairbanks, the political trap lines were buzzing. Had everyone been wrong?  In the past weeks, had Parnell been able to muster the political courage to take Begich on?

Why else would he choose to make an announcement at an event—the Alaska Republican Women’s Convention– where both Rep. Don Young and Sen. Lisa Murkowski were in attendance?

Even those who should have known were second guessing their assumptions. The backbone of Alaska’s Republican Party was in Fairbanks waiting to hear his plans. Party stalwarts like don’t-mess-with-Paulette Simpson from Juneau was there.  Rhonda Boyles from Fairbanks and newly elected Rep. Lynn Gattis from Wasilla, were there.  (Everyone knows that you shouldn’t mess with them either.) Sen. President Charlie Huggins and House Speaker Mike Chenault showed. The room was packed. Everyone waited and whispered.

So, an announcement that might have been as exciting as waiting for water to boil-turned into an event. It might just be the most exciting one of the governor’s race.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Hockey politics: Is UAA beginning to listen?

It took awhile, but it appears that the University of Alaska Anchorage might finally be at least giving lip service about  listening to the people. The Anchorage Daily News reported that on Thursday, the university is suspending a search for a new hockey coach pending a reevaluation of the search criteria. (Read more about the hockey fiasco that here and here).

This is how UAA Chancellor Tom Case explained the decision:

“There was tremendous interest in the process, in the future of Seawolf hockey and in the coach selection. We had a search process that was good, but there was so much interest in the process we decided to open it up to further input and ideas.”

That’s one way of putting it. What he doesn’t mention is that those “interested in the process” included a plethora of noisy, alienated hockey fans, some of whom contacted their state legislators to tell them so.  In turn, some of those state legislators contacted the university to ask them if the university understands that times will soon be lean and that community support is vital when funding decisions are going to be made?

It took awhile, but it appears that if the hockey fans can’t get the attention of the university, then legislators who hold the university’s purse strings can.

In any event, it appears that Case is still missing the point: both the Alaska State Hockey Association and the UAA Hockey Alumni Association has called on the university to find a new athletic director, one who won’t, as the current one has done, let UAA’s hockey team continue to flounder.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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North Pole refining Koch brothers likely to be involved in upcoming Alaska Senate race

The New York Times reports that the thumping conservatives — particularly tea party conservatives — have taken in the past few years isn’t scaring off the mega donating Koch brothers. The pair, along with their long list of advocacy groups, foundations and tangled knots of libertarian whatnots plan to be out in full force come the next election cycle.

According to the NYTs:

“(T)he brothers want their network to play a bigger role in cultivating and promoting Republican candidates who hew to their vision of conservatism, emphasizing smaller government and deregulation more than immigration and social issues. They are also seeking closer control over groups within their network, purging or downgrading those that did not deliver last year and expanding financing for those that performed well.”

The NYTs said that the pair hasn’t decided whether or not it will be involved in primaries. But it’s hard to see them resisting, considering that the primaries are where the battles for the Republican soul are fought, battles that are the raison d’être for the brothers.

What does this mean for Alaska? For one, the upcoming race against U.S. Sen. Mark Begich is expected to be one of the hottest in the country. And the Republican primary will be especially smoking. Rabid conservative Joe Miller and newly invented conservative stalwart Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell have both said that they’re all but in. And then there’s DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is looking increasingly like the dark horse candidate.

All of this is perfect Koch brother fodder, and all of this will happen on the heels of a contract for royalty oil that the state approved with Koch brother owned Flint Hill Resources, which has a refinery in North Pole, Alaska.

Under the terms of the contract, the state will deliver a maximum of 30,000 barrels a day of its royalty oil to Flint HIlls for five years, beginning next year. The contract is worth an estimated $3.5 billion to $5.9 in revenue for the state and billions for the Koch brothers.

In addition to being one of the state’s largest refineries, Flint Hills is one of the Alaska Railroad Corporation’s largest customers. They also own a tank farm in the Port of Anchorage area by Ship Creek. And they hope to own a majority of the U.S. Senate, including a new Republican senator from Alaska.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Why is UAA letting hockey go up in smoke?

This is what I know about hockey: that there’s a puck and a net involved and that on the handful of games that I have attended, I can’t keep track of when the puck goes into the net. I know that the people at those games know more than I do, and I know that many of them are die hard, committed hockey fans.

I also know that in Alaska, there are many of those die hard, committed hockey fans and I’m told that there used to be a lot more of them, particularly at UAA Seawolf games.

The seats used to be filled I’m told. Now, when you go to the Sullivan Arena to watch a Seawolf game, only about a third of the seats are filled. I’m here to tell you that it’s kind of a drag to be at a game that you don’t know much about without being surrounded by a crowd that does and can signal when to cheer, when to hiss and when to tell the ref that he sucks.

Unless things change and the crowds get bigger, I won’t go back.

Many, including the person with whom I am currently involved, are blaming the athletic director Steve Cobb for the Seawolf’s continuing decline on the ice and the subsequent lack of enthusiasm in that arena. Many are calling on UAA Chancellor Tom Case to fire Cobb.

Recently, long pent-up frustration among former and would-be Seawolf fans found a vent in the search for a new hockey coach. (Read more about that here and here). I may not know where the puck is, but I do know steam when I see it, and this was a gusher.

It was enough of a gusher that the Alaska State Hockey Association recently issued a vote of no confidence in Cobb. The following Sunday, the UAA Hockey Alumni Association issued their own resolution. About 40 men sat in a small room in an ice rink in South Anchorage on Sunday, working on the resolution. Many of them are fathers with busy lives. Many had never written or even spoke the word, “whereas.” Many of them spent the better part of their 20s bleeding for the Seawolves, and none of them took that resolution lightly.

They thought they could change things.

They were apparently under the assumption that an institution for which they fundraised and were a part of, an institution paid for out of their state funds, cared about them and their passions.

They thought they mattered.

The responses that they and others have received from the university make it very clear that they don’t.

I don’t know if Cobb should be fired, but I do know a few things about communication and I know in a been-there-done-that-way how to alienate a whole group of people. The university has been successful, at least at that.

I know that UAA’s response to the situation has been a PR failure, from one liners responding to heartfelt letters, to an arrogant “no comment” from Cobb in the Anchorage Daily News about the alumni resolution, to the very anemic and very late invitation the university sent out to a select few in the hockey community asking them to be involved in the search for the new hockey coach. (Say nothing about the silence surrounding the allegation of an assault and the cover up of the assault involving the former hockey coach and a student player. It’s the best known secret in the hockey community.  Case, here’s a head’s up: it will come out eventually and it won’t be pretty.)

And then on Friday was Case’s incomprehensible and inadequate defense of Cobb’s job as athletic director in the ADN.

Bradford Keithley writes better than I ever could here about the possible financial implications of UAA’s disastrous response, implications that might have real impact.

Legislators are talking. Headlines are screaming. Talk shows are buzzing. And now, normal, average people, people like me who don’t know a thing about hockey, are wondering how the university can continue to go to the people with hands and fingers out while being so insensitive and non-responsive to the people.

The university is, after all, a very well funded state school. And if there is anything to the owner state philosophy—and I believe there is—Alaskans own the university as much as the oil.

The 40 some guys who sat in that room on a Sunday trying to make their voices heard should matter as much, if not more than one arrogant, chain smoking athletic director. They should even matter as much, if not more, than a chancellor who appears hell-bent on keeping him in cigarettes, while hockey goes up in smoke.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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This is the way the oil tax debate ends: not with a bang but a whimper

The session that finally put an end to the current chapter of the decades-long tax debate, the one that has seen political careers ruined, millions of dollars spent, a state fractured. The one that’s pitted Alaskans against Alaskans, party member against one another. The one that began when former Gov. Sarah Palin took the help and helped her rise to the national stage. The one that since, has stoked fear in the hearts of some Alaskans, and the one that made long time Alaskans who were here before oil wonder what had happened to their state.

The one that will now give billions of dollars back to some of the largest companies in the world in hopes that they will stay in the state and produce more oil and continue to nearly completely fund state government.

That very debate officially ended when both chambers gaveled out at midnight Monday morning—the first time since 2010 that it wrapped up in time–to relatively little fanfare. All told, the legislature passed 71 bills, including a controversial 737-mile in-state gasline that had been debated for years. (Read more on that here).

But the real story of the session was the oil tax bill, which for all intents and purposes ended when it passed the in the wee hours of Sunday morning.

In prior years on a night like that, as politicians grandstanded in the chamber, as amendments were offered and killed, hallways would be chalked full of lobbyists and citizens showing up for the spectacle. Pizza boxes would have piled up. Soda cans tipped. Harried aides would have been flitting about carrying stacks of paper to harried legislators.

This time it was different. As Saturday night turned into Sunday morning, there were only a few scattered observers in the hall outside of the chamber. As the last business was wrapping up at 2 a.m., the only person left was the security guard roaming a long empty hall.

The lack of excitement was due to many things, the first being that the votes were locked in early. This, in part, was thanks to Senate President Charlie Huggins, House Speaker Mike Chenault and House Finance Chair Bill Stoltze, all three of whom herded the cats and kept trouble, real trouble at bay. (Gov. Sean Parnell, it should be noted, kept his distance, which is one way of putting it. Others in the Capitol building weren’t nearly as kind when referring to his absence.)

It was also probably due to an electorate that chose to usher in Republicans in both chambers. The Republican Senate Majority’s motto is “Time to Act,” and act they did. Sen. Fred Dyson probably said it best when he said, “What a difference an election makes.”

Mostly everybody just seemed wary from the battle. On the surface, and when the cameras were on them, it looked like the Dems and others opposed to the tax bill were fighting vigilantly. Off camera, they looked defeated. They knew the score, and they knew that it was not in their favor.

Some of them who have lived this battle session after session, year after year, knew that you can only fight so hard against that which you have allowed yourself to become so dependent.

That’s not to say that the oil companies, the majors at least, got what they wanted. (The independents got all they wanted and more. More on that later.) The tax break will cost the state, at current projected prices and at current production, somewhere between $650 million to more than $1 billion a year. During committee testimony, the companies said that it was too little of a tax break to really stem production declines.

They all said the flat 35 percent tax is too high, the $5 per barrel exempted for all produced oil too low, and the tax credit for new oil not generous enough. In fact, there was talk that at least one of the major hated the bill and wanted to kill it through amendments offered in House Resources, chaired by Rep. Eric Feige but controlled by Rep. Mike Hawker.  Among other things, the amendments offered in Resources by Hawker lowered the base rate, and significantly decreased state accounting oversight.

Had those amendments survived the bill would not have passed the Senate. (Rep. Bill Stoltze, who knew that, stripped out the amendments in Finance and kept the capital budget in committee until he was assured that those amendments wouldn’t make their way back into the bill.)

You could heat Juneau with the paper that was printed this year alone devoted to charts and graphs and powerpoints. Citizen legislators worked extraordinarily hard to figure it all out. And still nobody really knows—in this state at least– what the tax break does or how it’s going to work.

But what is clear is that since the state raised oil company taxes in 2007, Alaska has been used by the majors as a cautionary tale around the world of what happens when an oil province dares to take on an industry that feeds it, literally. Raise our taxes and we’ll decrease production, the majors said. We’ll starve you out, they warned. Just look at Alaska, they said.

It may be true. It may not be true. The oil is indeed running out, as it was bound to. Prudhoe Bay—the largest oil field in North America– began pumping from its vast reservoir in 1977. Most of the easy oil from that field is gone. New technology is supposedly available to squeeze more oil out of the ground, but that could only happen if the tax rates were lower, oil companies argued. And argued, and argued. And they did that here in the state with enough Chinese-water torture type insistency that the citizens here said enough.

Now eyes, both here and around the world, are going to be on the industry, to see if those companies will make good after such a large tax break. The testimony that it wasn’t likely big enough to stem decline will be lost on most. All the public will remember is that Alaska reached out its hand. If they don’t take it, then they’ll likely be punished, again, as they were in 2007 after Palin took over.

And it will happen sooner or later. The pendulum will swing back. And forth. Again and again, as it has been swinging since Prudhoe was discovered in 1968. Whole legislative sessions will be devoted to oil taxes. The best minds in the state will be busy working on it. Bumper stickers will be plastered on cars and slogans will be used to further careers, and the state, as it has been, will be consumed. We will all be consumed with oil taxes as our schools continue to be some of the worst performing in the country, as our sexual and domestic violence rates are some of the highest in the country, as our citizens continue to be divided. We will all be consumed with oil taxes as the oil steadily runs out, and we will be consumed with oil taxes as we don’t try other things, don’t try to get our money elsewhere, as we don’t plan for what happens when that day comes.

Indeed, even before the Senate concurred with the House changes to SB 21 on Sunday afternoon, there was already talk about plans being made by the majors to come back next year to get some additions and changes that they were hoping for. That will likely be another fight. It will likely last for years.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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The session that dismantled Palin’s legacy

It took awhile to purge Gov. Sarah Palin. It took longer than people expected. After all, what could one governor do to a state in less than two years?  Ask those who are busy in Juneau dismantling her two big initiatives, ones that she ran on as a vice presidential candidate: oil taxes and her attempt to incentivizing the building of a large natural gas pipeline.

Palin, for better or for worse, was an active governor at a time when the public was ready for action. As most know, she swooped in on the heels of what appeared at the time to be an Alaska-sized corruption scandal. She swooped in on the heels of a split in the Republican Party between the more urban chamber of commerce Republicans and their more ideological brethren. She swooped in during record high oil prices. She swooped in as the first female governor. And swooped with the public firmly on her side.

That gave her a lot of leverage to do big things, for what at the time seemed to many like really good reasons. She pounded the oil industry with a huge tax increase, and she passed law to get a large diameter natural pipeline built by sidestepping the industry. Now Palin in the rear-view mirror, oil production on the decline, and a large diameter pipe dream once again sound asleep within the arms of the industry–those so-called good ideas don’t seem so great anymore.

None of the alternatives are perfect — any policy in reaction to another piece of policy won’t be — particularly ones that’s been leveraged on the state. More specifically, the oil tax revamp probably gives too much away to the big producers — ConocoPhillips, BP and Exxon. It will likely result in budget deficits before production increases, if production does indeed increase. And it has, once again, showed how weak the state has become by allowing itself to be nearly completely dependent on oil revenue. (It should be noted that if oil prices drop, which many predict, this bill gives the state more protection than current law.)

And then there’s House Bill 4 which will facilitate the development of a small diameter pipeline running from the North Slope to Southcentral Alaska. The bill provides funding to bring the project to open season, at which time the economics will dictate if it makes sense, or at least tell us what kind of state dollar infusion it will need. In other words, it’s not a done deal yet, but it’s a big statement that the big dream of a big pipeline is all but dead, as is Palin’s big pipeline plan, AGIA.

HB 4 too is less than perfect and it only passed in tandem with, SB 23, the LNG trucking bill, which has its own problems. The plan to truck LNG to Fairbanks is just a band aid. Everyone knows that, and an expensive one at that. There are likely cheaper, more efficient ways to help solve Fairbanks’ energy crisis. But state leadership is so weak, ideas have been put off for so long, it’s the only short-term, politically palatable solution left.

In any case, no matter the flaws in the bills, this legislative session put the last nail in the Palin-regime coffin. And she’ll never again be able to point to what she did in Alaska to further any political aspirations she has left.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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The final stretch

Adjournment is close at hand. And to the extent that the people knew what they were doing when the elected a predominately Republican legislature to get things done, they got what they wanted. Big bills, bills that have been debated in the Legislature for years, bills that have been the subject of hundreds of hours of committee hearings, of debate, those bills are now a hair’s-breadth from making their way to Gov. Sean Parnell’s desk to be signed. For better or for worse, depending on how you’re wired.

From oil taxes to money for construction of a small diameter natural gas pipeline that would run from the North Slope to Southcentral Alaska. From LNG from the North Slope to Fairbanks. From gun laws to the Knik Arm Bridge, insurance and drug laws, abortion and the Judicial Council. All the pieces seem to be fitting together nicely for an orderly adjournment by Sunday night right before midnight.

That is, of course, barring some unforeseen melt down or huge personality clash, which would likely come from one of the many divisions in the House, particularly from the faction that wants to lower the base rate on the oil tax bill. That amendment would likely come from Rep. Mike Hawker, who lowered the base rate to 33 percent in House Resources. At least two members of the Senate have drawn the line on 35 percent. So, if it succeeds, it will likely kill the bill. Some in the know say that because the tax break isn’t big enough, killing the bill is the goal of at least one of the three major oil companies. (Guess which one?)

However, given how well House Speaker Mike Chenault has been able to herd the cats so far—the demise of KABATA being case and point—the success of such machinations is unlikely.

Here are the four key bills that are “must haves” for adjournment:  SB 21 the oil tax reform bill, HB 4 the small diameter pipeline bill, the operating budget and lastly the capital budget.

What isn’t being reported on much is nonetheless important to note as some of these bills have huge impacts on the lives for average people. One bill that has gotten extremely little media attention–introduced by freshman Sen. Mike Dunleavy, and referred to only one committee which he chairs–was a bill to allow insurance companies to use credit scores as a factor in setting insurance rates.

During the public hearing process, the only witnesses testifying in favor of the bill were employees of the insurance industry and the state’s new Director of Insurance (it should be noted that the previous state insurance director opposed the bill for years). On the other hand, a lot of Alaskan consumers testified against the bill, citing its unfairness and questioning why in the world the Alaska legislature would consider advancing such a measure. Unfortunately, their concerns fell on deaf ears as committee members paid deference to Dunleavy who wanted to move the bill to the floor. (It should be noted that Dunleavy campaigned as the voice of the people.)

The half dozen or more lobbyists working together to advance this bill were gleeful. However, that euphoria crashed when the bill ran into the Senate Rules Committee, which schedules bills for floor action and is chaired by Sen. Lesil McGuire. She thought the bill was against consumer interest and she had enough courage to stand up to the insurance industry and the leaders of her caucus to squash it. Like a bug. With her stilettos.

Then there’s a bill sponsored in the Senate by Dunleavy and in the House by Rep. Lynn Gattis, who’s turning out to be one of the freshman stars, which would bring public education employees into the state’s large insurance pool. As of now, most of them are covered through an National Education Association trust. The state, which already pays for the insurance, says that combining the two pools will result in savings for all. The bill is being fought by the NEA and Sen. Bill Wielechowski, both of whom called it a “big government takeover of healthcare.” If that’s not irony for you, then there’s none of it left in the world.

There’s lots of other bills, but one of my favorites is a bill by Sen. Fred Dyson, a staunch conservative, which would make simple possession of schedule I and II substances a Class A misdemeanor, which still can carry with it up to a year in prison and a $10,000 fine. It’s supported by the ACLU, the Department of Corrections and a bevy of defense lawyers who have long been bemoaning the havoc our drug laws has wrought. It passed the Senate 17 to 2.

Here’s more irony for you: Two of those most vocal Dems in Alaska, Sens. Bill Wielechowski and Hollis French, voted against it after French offered two failing amendments that would weaken the bill.

That bill is now in House Finance, and will likely take a backseat to the other huge order of business on today’s schedule: the capital budget. The committee is expected to release the first draft later today.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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The governor tries to sell the public on oil tax reform

Governor Sean Parnell isn’t much known for using a heavy hand or voice in passing bills. Last year, he got about as antagonistic as he gets when he called the bipartisan Senate a “do nothing” body when they failed to pass his oil tax bill. That kind of backfired, temporarily at least, because for all the world the Senate was working very, very hard.

Anyway, things are going better for the governor this session, at least as oil taxes are concerned. (Trouble is brewing on other fronts, however. HB 77, a major bill that would revise Alaska’s water and land use laws to benefit mining and other commercial interests appears to be in trouble.) Even Rep. Les Gara conceded in a committee hearing that a reform to ACES will likely pass this session.

But Parnell’s success on this front has little to do with his own efforts, which seem to involve only talking to the Legislature through the Associated Press and writing a weekly oil tax message. (If that weekly message had done one little thing to change one heart and mind, then writers and thinkers with any talent everywhere should just give up and declare themselves the uncles of monkeys. The same goes for industry sponsored commercials on Gavel to Gavel, but that’s another story.)

Anyway, Parnell did get a little cutting edge on Thursday, trying to reach the masses today through twitter and urged others to do the same. In his tell-tale, conversational style, Parnell tweeted the following:

As one pundit put it, “The third floor’s political acumen remains less than stellar,” and then, in his real voice, he said, “This is how he’s trying to sell this bill?”

A few made fun of Parnell’s tweet, and two hours after he urged a re-tweet, only ten had done so, including Deputy Press Secretary Luke Miller, who, when he worked for U.S. Rep. Don Young, spent his days reaching out and actually talking to reporters. Strangely enough, that seemed to work.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Incremental oil tax update

The draft of the House Finance Committee substitute on the oil tax bill emerged Thursday morning, and is likely to take up most of the air in the room of the committee meeting this afternoon and evening. In a nutshell, the bill generally strips the amendments proposed in House Resources and follows more closely what the Senate produced last month, which should make concurrence a relatively painless process. I’ll have more on this later this evening, but for now, below is a list of the main changes in the substitute:

1. The base tax rate has been raised from 33 percent to 35 percent.

2. For now, the small producer credit has been taken out of the bill.

3. A Competitive Review Board that was proposed by Sen. Lesil McGuire and killed in Resources is back in.

4. An accounting requirement called joint interest billing, which the producers lobbied hard for, was taken out.

5. There’s a $5 per-barrel credit for new oil produced and a 20 percent tax break, known as a gross revenue exclusion, for production of new oil. And there’s an additional 10 percent for new oil from fields outside the legacy fields which pay a higher royalty rate that those inside the legacy fields.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Kaboom Kapow KABTA?

For nearly a century, those who were wired that way–and Alaska always had plenty of that type of wiring–dreamed of a bridge over the Cook Inlet, connecting Anchorage to the mysterious swath of land in the Mat-Su Valley. (One particularly creative idea in the 1960s involved a monorail that would connect Anchorage to a domed, temperature-controlled community.)

If nothing else, you’ve got to give the Kink Arm Bridge and Toll Authority kudos for coming as close as you can get to bridging the divide. If the agency’s bill passed this session–and for awhile it looked like it might–the authority would have been well on its way to building the $1.6 billion bridge (others have estimated the cost to be much more). Had the bill passed, KABATA would have been authorized to sell $600 million in bonds and the state would have set up a reserve fund to pay for the agencies costs. And it likely would have been the agency’s last dance in front of the legislature, for awhile at least.

But as everyone knows, close doesn’t cut it and neither did what appears now to be an ill-fated agency. It’s not a done deal yet, but on Thursday morning, the House Rules Committee is set to vote on an amendment which would put KABATA in the hands of the state agency du jour, Alaska Housing Finance Corporation, run by the man of the moment Dan Fauske.

The buzz is that it’s a fait accompli, as are most bills by the time they make it to Rules.

Fauske is prepared to set up yet another state agency under AHFC that would take over the project and give it a fresh look. KABATA was created by Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2003, and seeded with $110 million in state and federal funds. Since, it has amassed more than $56 million state funded assets.

Ostensibly, the problems with the bridge and the agency arose after a scathing legislative audit concluded that KABATA’s projected revenue through tolls were overly optimistic.

But many legislators had been leery of the project and the agency since its inception and it only got worse as the numbers KABATA released continually bumped up against conflicting numbers and as the agency became increasingly defensive about the project and how it was going to be funded.

Increasingly, it appeared that those who ran KABATA were seen less as objective, trusted stewards of state resources than a group hell bent on getting a project underway, regardless of cost.

What all this means to the fate of the bridge, and the enormous number of bills still yet to pass out of various committees, remains to be seen. The Mat-Su Valley delegation, which has supported KABATA and the bridge,  is a powerful one this year. The delegation is led by Senate President, Charlie Huggins, and House Finance Chairman Bill Stoltze.

Stoltze’s committee still has possession of the oil tax bill and the capital budget, which gives him significant added influence this time of the year.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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