A nearly certain win for Sullivan. Governor’s race leaning Walker, but too close to call.

With 97 percent of Alaska’s precincts counted, it appears that GOP Dan Sullivan beat Sen. Mark Begich in the most expensive race Alaska has seen and one of the most expensive ones in the country. As of 1:30 a.m., Sullivan had a 9,151-count lead. There are still 30,000 absentee ballots out. However, only about 18 percent of those are from registered Democrats, 32 percent are from Republicans and the rest from Independents, making a path for victory for Begich virtually impossible.

The governor’s race is more difficult to call. Independent candidate Bill Walker has a 2,935 vote count lead. However, given the partisan makeup of the votes still out, Parnell could still squeak out a win, though it’s going to be tough.

Two other House races are still too close to call and will also depend on ballots still out. Democrat Matt Claman, who I predicted would win the House race in West Anchorage against Republican Anand Dubey, is only 35 votes ahead. In Ketchikan Independent candidate Dan Ortiz is wining by a mere 19 votes against Republican Chere Klein.

If you’re interested in other races across the state, you can find updated results from the Division of Elections here. Or, you can just go to my predictions here.

I probably own my readers some color, but I’m too tired.  For now, suffice it to say that the winners were happy and the losers weren’t. More tomorrow.


17 thoughts on “A nearly certain win for Sullivan. Governor’s race leaning Walker, but too close to call.

  1. Lynn Willis

    Kindness had nothing to do with Treadwell’s decision any more than the state publishing that supplement to the voter’s pamphlet was an act of kindness. No, the precedent was set in Alaska for candidates to change alignments and allegiances. It has happen several times as candidates after the primary changed partners. Mead Treadwell knew that and explained that in his approval of the unity ticket. It would have been in the Supreme Court within days and judges are loath to interfere with the will of the parties or candidates.
    Now, the legislature will probably be discussing this subject in secret and devising a strategy to make sure this doesn’t happen again because they need their precious two party system, with standing caucuses, exemption from state open meeting laws, and unconstitutional defacto veto power granted to individual senior legislators to survive in office. How else could Bill Allen have been so effective if not for that system.
    I personally would favor a “top two” primary if the state is going to fund them at all, otherwise the parties can, at their own expense, draw straws, hold a convention or have a paint ball fight to choose candidates.
    With my comments about the voter pamphlet, I was simply pointing out the further incompetence of the current administration by their failure to produce something as simple as a voter pamphlet and describing the apparent evidence that it might not have been incompetence at all. Good to have these things on the table early – just in case.

  2. AH HA

    Lynn, care to explain how the evil state was kind enough to have allowed them to ‘build a ballot’ in the first place? I mean if the incumbent Lt Governor was serious about torpedoing the effort, Walker and Mallott would still be trying to get on the ballot. I think lots of folks on both sides found the ‘unity ticket’ very unpalatable but I doubt anyone, not even Steve Strait actually thought it might not be legal.

    To me you sound a lot like someone crying over milk that’s not even spilled.

  3. AH HA

    I’m tending to agree. but we can always wait and see. Truth be told I can support either one, both have shortcomings and strong suits.

  4. Crude is Rude - Gas is gold

    Yes, I certainly hope & pray that Walker/Mallott survive as winners beyond Nov.19th !!

    We need to hire a good janitorial staff to clean up, and try to clawback all the ruptured funds lost under the past 6 years of secretive & concealed fiscal management.

    [hmm, I wonder if html pic embeds works here?]

  5. Straitlaced Radical

    Could well be, and if so, I wish him well and sincerely hope he is not the train wreck for Alaska that he appears to be.

  6. Forecast

    Bill Walker has a lead that is statistically unlikely to be lost. With 100 percent of the precincts having been counted, the absentee ballots are not going to make a difference.

    The ratio on the absentee ballots would have to skew strongly in favor of Parnell. Such a thing, absent fraud, has never happened.

    Bill Walker is our next governor.

  7. Crude is Rude - Gas is gold

    courtesy of; upi.com

    The race for governor is even closer: independent Bill Walker leads Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by a mere 3,165 votes, 47.83 percent to 46.42 percent.

    While more than 50,000 early and absentee votes were already submitted, at least 20,000 of those votes remained uncounted Tuesday evening.

    And an additional 14,000 absentee ballots remain in the hands of voters: To account for large numbers of military, off-shore and remote in-state residents, Alaska accepts absentee ballots up to 10 days after the election, if postmarked within the U.S., and 15 days if postmarked outside the country.

    An unspecified number of “questionable ballots,” cast by people who voted at the wrong polling location, also remain uncounted.

    Officials have until Nov. 19 to count votes.

  8. Marvin

    I think that was reported at one time, but the Division of Elections corrected it and said it had been there error.

  9. Lynn Willis

    Then why would the state have been obligated to show individual charity toward a candidate for a personal omission by that candidate for office and is that allowed by statute? Other candidates for office were omitted in the first edition such as the opponents to the incumbents in my House District (14) and Senate District (G). Why didn’t they have this gesture afforded to them? If Walker had failed to submit a candidate profile, yet he gets a “re-do” at no cost to his campaign, then so much for an objective process.
    I would suggest that if a name is to appear on the ballot and no information is received than a page with that candidates name and the notation “No Candidate Response Submitted” is printed on that page. If that had been done, then everybody would have been accounted for and the state could have saved $47,000?

  10. AH HA

    Hillary Clinton will be older that Ronald Regan was when elected. If that’s the best candidate that the democrats can come up with the party might really have a problem in 2016. You sure that’s what you want to shoot for?

  11. Shame on You

    @Lynn Willis: If Parnell wins, given his penchant for reckless spending, Alaska will be a doomed state in the next 4 to 5 years. But then you already know that. As I said before, “people deserve the government they get.” Sad but very true.

  12. Shame on You

    Great! let’s wait for the “other (R)” set of criminals to screw up things such as immigration, foreign policy, monetary and fiscal policy etc for the next 2 years, until the Democrats capture the senate AND the presidency under Hillary Clinton in 2016. It’s amazing how things just don’t seem to change in the United States as Democrats and Republicans squabble over “no I win, no I win,” while NOBODY in congress bothers to read and follow the constitution of the United States. Not to mention the fact that you have a populace that is ignorant, gullible and morally bankrupt. As the saying goes,” people deserve the government they get.” Unfortunately for people like me we get caught in between the false paradigm of D vs R. A total scam.

  13. Lynn Willis

    Now the election for Governor is coming down to the wire and every vote counts. I wonder how many overseas ballots were sent and returned before those voters had a State Voter Pamphlet that included Bill Walker as a candidate for Governor? How ironic will it be if Parnell wins because of the “accidental” omission of Walker from the original edition of the State Voter Pamphlet?
    The Division of Elections had to know the unity ticket had been created because Byron Mallot was listed as a “Non-Affiliated” Lt. Governor candidate in the original pamphlet. Despite knowing that fact, the State apparently couldn’t figure out that Walker was running as Governor on the same ticket as Mallot. The State paid for the supplement edition ($47,000) listing Walker which they certainly wouldn’t have done if Walker had been responsible for the omission.
    And who made this “error of omission” and will anyone be held responsible? If Governor Parnell wins, and his pattern continues, we will never know and the press had better be ready to sue Governor Parnell to see any records that might explain what happened.

  14. CPG49

    Big night for Republicans in America and in Alaska. From my count, you predicted every race spot on with the possible exception of the Governor’s race which could still turn arround. That’s amazing. Keep up the good work. Lots of us, love your blog.

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