Cook Political Report moves Alaska Senate from ‘Lean Democrat’ to ‘Toss Up’

The Cook Political Report, which tracks races across the country, has moved the Alaska Senate race from “Leans Democratic” to “Toss Up.”  Here’s the reasoning:

There are a couple of races that have been sitting in the Lean Democratic column because of Republican primaries that threaten to produce an unelectable candidate. While primaries remain a challenge for Republicans, the path to the GOP nomination for a number of the strongest Republican contenders is getting clearer, while the threat of another Richard Mourdock or Todd Akin has waned in a number of states As such, Sens. Mark Begich in Alaska, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina are moving to the Toss Up column. In each of these races, polls show the races generally within the margin of error tied…. At this point it has become something of a D.C. parlor game to guess which of the four – Begich, Landrieu, Hagan or Pryor – is in the most trouble. At this point, it is pretty much splitting hairs. All four are locked into very close races, but none is dead.


11 thoughts on “Cook Political Report moves Alaska Senate from ‘Lean Democrat’ to ‘Toss Up’

  1. Brad

    What do you think about the outsiders who have Begich leading the race? They must be out of touch as well, right?

  2. AlaskaCodPiece

    DNR Dan will not win because he is unwilling or unable to bother talking with rural Alaskans. When is he planning to visit coastal communities? When is he going to speak out on Alaska issues and not simply bash Begich and Obama? What are DNR Dan’s plans for Alaskans?

  3. SF in Anchorage

    This is where we find out that outsiders are out of touch. Mark Begich will win reelection. Sullivan’s campaign is best described as the gang that can’t shhot straight. Sullivan’s campaign manager Been Moore is a complete disaster. He couldn’t runa race for school board competently. Alaskans will tire of Sullivan as they see what a carvetbagger he really is.

  4. Kevin

    357? Is that the area code or the gun? Is it because your words strike like bullets? That would be cool.

  5. 357

    Cook Political Report is tracking the race correctly. I can think of about 97 reasons why the electorrate is moving to Dan Sullivan’s camp. Begich’s voting record of supporting the president 97 % of the time will huirt him with Alaskans

  6. Kevin

    Who’s Reid? I’m just voting to repeal SB 21 and legalize pot. Where does Sullivan stand on that Brad?

    Doesn’t that 97% number come from all the ridiculous bills that congress passes, like acknowledging special holidays and stuff? Does that same research show you who agreed with Obama the least? Like…what’s their percent?

  7. Brad

    If there’s something that the general population of Alaska hates, it’s Begich, Reid & Obama. It has been hilarious reading as Sullivan & Treadwell supporters butt-heads, but the reality of this election is that Sullivan will win. Begich votes with Obama 97% of the time – Fact.

  8. Garand Fellow

    I’m not sure Mead will stay in until August. No matter what he does he gains no traction. He hits the right notes for a Republican primary but the tune always sounds like he is playing it without interest or enthusiasm. He wants to be senator but doesn’t know exactly why, and in that he really is like Begich’s little brother. I doubt Mead can rise above 20% of those who choose a Republican ballot, and for that reason I think he will end the campaign early. The race is between Sullivan and Begich, and Treadwell has no bearing on the outcome.

  9. Greg T.

    Cook’s ideas are speculative to the nth degree and really show how much he knows about our past political elections. If there’s something that the general population of Alaska loves, it’s our incumbents. It has been hilarious reading as Sullivan & Treadwell supporters butt-heads, but the reality of this election is that Begich will win. Incumbents go back to office at an average rate of 92% – Fact.

    I don’t care how much the Arctic Adventurer is loved; I don’t care how much money Mr. Ohio can raise. Begich is a better candidate than both of them. Here are four reasons why:

    1. Begich has the equivalent fundraising powers that Dan Sullivan does
    2. Begich has the equivalent grassroots support that Mead does
    3. Begich has equally powerful Super Pacs behind him (like Dan)
    4. After the Primary, Begich will have an equally impressive campaign staff to help spend his money (like Treadwell)

    But above all of that; Begich doesn’t have to win a primary that will leave people in his own party hurt. If both Dan and Mead were combined…maybe. If Mead could raise money, or if Dan could get people to like him (and not think he’s a carpet-bagger); but apparently, they can’t. So all praise emperor Begich who will continue representing us until the day he leaves office or dies.

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