Below is a summary from local pollster Ivan Moore’s most recent poll that shows Sen. Mark Begich up about 8 points against GOP senate candidate Dan Sullivan. Depending on what sample is used, the poll also has Rep. Don Young beating Forrest Dunbar by 2 percentage points, or losing to him by about 6 percentage points. Moore’s polls are at odds with other recent polls. Moore does polling for a number of different clients; however, he’s most well known for polling for unions. He declined to say who paid for this one, but did say that it wasn’t paid for by a candidate, a candidate PAC or independent group. “Just a regular run of the mill private client,” he said. Here’s the summary:
600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th – Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%.
There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I’m giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year… while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day:
544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6%
330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4%
544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5%
330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7%