New poll shows GOP Senate candidates Treadwell and Sullivan neck and neck

Anchorage-based Dittman Research released a poll today that shows that GOP Senate candidates Dan Sullivan and Lieutenant Gov. Mead Treadwell running neck and neck. The poll, paid for by Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, surveyed 500 likely GOP primary voters May 27 – 29. It showed Mead Treadwell with 35 percent of the vote, Dan Sullivan with 37 percent, and Joe Miller with 12 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.

The poll also showed Treadwell with a 74 percent favorable approval rating, Sullivan with a 62 percent, and Miller with a 35 percent favorable rating. Because Independents and nonpartisans are allowed to vote in the Republican primary, Dittman’s sample included 60 percent registered Republicans, Matt Larkin, who owns Dittman, said.

Larkin said that he wasn’t authorized to release the full poll, which also surveyed the lieutenant governor’s race.

Treadwell, naturally, appears happy with the numbers. “Washington, DC power brokers may have made a decision on who the GOP candidate should be, but Alaskans didn’t get the memo,” Treadwell said in a statement. He was referring to Sullivan, who has by far raised the most money in the race and has been considered the frontrunner.

Sullivan’s spokesperson said that it was hard to respond without seeing the full poll. However, he said “one thing is clear, Dan Sullivan is the only candidate that Mark Begich is afraid to take on in the fall.” He said that’s why Begich and those who support him are attacking Sullivan

A poll conducted by Portland-based Moore Research showed that at the end of April, Sullivan had a 16 percent lead over Mead Treadwell and a 26 percentage point lead over Joe Miller with 38 percent of primary voters still undecided.

Moore, like Dittman, is long-associated with Republicans and has a long history for polling for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young. Both firms also polled for the late Sen. Ted Stevens.

Only one thing is for sure: There will be lots of conflicting poll numbers in the coming months.

Contact Amanda Coyne at


41 thoughts on “New poll shows GOP Senate candidates Treadwell and Sullivan neck and neck

  1. "terrible lies"

    Hey there Sullivan-lover… why don’t you go read HB 77… a disgusting bill penned by Dan Sullivan. GO READ THE DAMN BILL. It was rightly called the “silence alaskans act” but it gets draped in the spin of “deregulation.”

    The bill was SO BAD it was crushed in the state legislature. Think about that. Which party controls the state senate eh dingbat? The bill was SO VILE they couldn’t even support it.

    Put that in your meth pipe and smoke it.

  2. Truthwins

    Treadwell is not a conservative. He proudly supports leftist RINO Lisa Murkowski, is against voter ID, came out in support of Burgdahl, is for a path to citizenship for illegal aliens. He, along with Sullivan, is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

  3. Truthwins

    There is no way it is accurate. There is huge enthusiasm for Joe Miller. People are still pissed at how the establishment Republicans including Dan Sullivan and Mead Treadwell put their full support behind leftist liberal RINO Lisa Murkowski. And, any true conservative knows that only Joe shows a clear contrast and choice. Begich, Treadwell, Sullivan, and Murkowski are all the same – part of the inner circle of corrupt politicians who when election time comes claim they are conservative. Wake up people!

  4. Truthwins

    What is the poll sample? Where were the calls made to? Where cell phones called? How many calls were made to Anchorage compared to other areas like Fairbanks and Kenai? 500 is a very small sample.

  5. Truthwins

    Hate to be the bearer of bad news but citing a March poll is silly. Treadwell and Sullivan are both closet liberals who are trying to hide their record (the liberal media is gladly concealing this fact but there are articles online from reliable sources). Every time leftist liberal RINO Lisa Murkowski votes Mead Treadwell and Dan Sullivan are proxy voting. Both are bought off by the corrupt insider’s club and are “yes” men to Karl rove and the Republican establishment which like the Democratic Party have moved further to the left. Neither can it will bear Begich because their is no clear contrast. When are people going to wake up – do you forget Dole, McCain, Romney – no clear contrast – all moderates who lost. Only Joe Miller is a clear contrast who has no political “friends” he owes favors to.

  6. Truthwins

    Treadwell is not a conservative. He proudly supports leftist RINO Lisa Murkowski, is against voter ID, came out in support of Burgdahl, is for a path to citizenship for illegal aliens. He, along with Sullivan, is a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

  7. Truthwins

    You mean Dan the coward who is trying to run from his support of RINO Lisa Murkowksi? You mean the coward Dan who claims to be a fighter but won’t even show up for a debate? Give me a break. Only Joe Miller can and will defeat Begich because he is the only conservative candidate with a clear difference from Begich. Sullivan, Treadwell, Murkowski, and Begich are all the same person.

  8. Truthwins

    Dan Sullivan and Mead Treadwell are wolves in sheep’s clothing. Both claim to be conservatives yet they both fully supported and voted for hyper liberal RINO, Lisa Murkowski. Both are very soft on conservative issues and their loyalty lies with their “friends” in politics not with the people of Alaska. Don’t be snowed. Here is a good example – Dan Sullivan claims to be a fighter yet is too afraid to show up to a debate. And Mead Treadwell is proud of his support for Murkowsk, the man made global warming agenda, and the Law of The Sea Treaty. These guys are gutless liberal cowards posing as conservatives.

  9. John Smith

    You are mixing up your Dan Sullivan’s.

    Mayor Dan paid for the poll.

    DNR Dan’s spokesperson hasn’t seen the entire poll.

  10. Joe

    “The poll, paid for by Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan… Sullivan’s spokesperson said that it was hard to respond without seeing the full poll”

    So surely the poll was not paid for by Sullivan then?

  11. Matt Larkin

    Dear “49th State Political Junkie”

    You are severely misinformed about our company and polling practices. I would be happy to discuss your concerns anytime. Feel free to call our office at 243-3345.

    Matt Larkin

  12. Anonymous

    Urban — “The reality is that coastal communities play a limited role in Republican primaries.”

    So that means it’s not worthwhile for DNR Dan to bother visiting coastal/rural places and meet and talk with people there?? That is one of the most arrogant, condescending brush offs I’ve ever heard of rural Alaskans.

  13. John Smith

    If this poll is accurate, and quite frankly that is a big “if” for me, it only shows that the money rolling in attacking Dan Sullivan has had an effect. Who knows what the future will bring in this race, but it is way too soon to say that this is the mark of a Treadwell surge. By the end of August, if it still this close in other polls as well, I would be worried. For now, the Sullivan campaign will simply stay on message and let the left wing attack ads just keep making Begich look like a desperate child.

  14. 49th State Political Junkie

    Amanda, I am surprised that you put up the results of this poll. First off, we all know that Dave Dittman of Dittman Research is no longer involved with the polling projects done under his name. He sold the company to a young, nice gentleman who has little polling ecperience and less ppolitical acumen. I’ve spoken to several people about this poll. All I can tell you is that you were duped if you believe that there is any legitimacy to this poll’s results. I heard that they didn’t even poll cell phones as they were working off a voter registration list. This methodology was used in the 1980’s. Most legitimate (All) pollsters gave up this methodology years ago. Too bad Mr Larkin doesn’t know enough about polling to have chaanged his methodology for this century. This is the first time I’ve been disappointed in the quality of story that has appeared in your blog. In the past, you have been highly critical of the polls conducted by PPP. Actually, their methodologies, although far from perfect, are much better than Larkin’s. Like I said, this poll isn’t worth mentioning. Like wise, I don’t know one legitimate pollster who would allowed this type of release. Did you evenb lknow that cell phones weren’t called? I know the public is anxious for polling dfata. In the future, I hope that you will use only results from legitimate pollsters or at least be responsible enough to provide methodologies, instrument and sample information. If you would have looked at these factors, I doubt if you would have included this erroneous poll in you. You were used by Matt Karkin. Few Alaskans who understand polling have much respect for Larkin’s polling skills. Yes, Mr. Larkin is a nice guy. That does NOT make his a competent pollster.

  15. Urban politico

    Over the past several weeks, I’ve noticed a trail of consistebcy from one of your readers called AK Cod something or another that seems obsessed with Dan Sullivan’s lack of visits to coastal communities. Frankly, I’m nmot sure of the genesis of his obsession. The reality is that coastal communities play a limited role in Republican primaries. Meanwhile, you must be sleepping a lot if you’re missing Sullivan.

  16. Alaska Cod Piece

    At least Treadwell is making visits to coastal and rural Alaska and meeting with all comers — not just at scripted events on the road system and carefully organized private fundraisers with safe, hand picked crowds.

    DNR Dan (OH>DC>AK) has too many ‘military obligations’ to make time for “all Alaskans.” It’s clear he doesn’t care to listen and learn about our ideas and concerns – let alone answer questions!

    Dan’s too busy hustling the big bucks from Outsiders – his true constituency for his ‘streamlined development at all costs’ agenda. The most money doesn’t add up to the most votes in Alaska, Dan the Cheechako Man.

  17. PoliteAlaskan

    Dan has peaked, without his wife wearing the pants in the relationship, he’d be done.

  18. RudeAlaskan

    We’ve seen enough lies from Begich. His support PAC is spending millions of dollars on spreading terrible lies about his opponent. He’s clearly scared, or he would talk about REAL issues. The Teadwell campaign is broke, without his personal loan, he would’ve been done.

  19. Suzanne

    The Treadwell campaign is surging !!!! Not because theuy don’t have tv ads, radio ads, bus billboards, a ground game, direct mail or anything else. Their secret campaign tool ? Don’t tell anyone but it’s the logo wear that his out of state campaign workers wear eveyday. That’s the reason for the surge in the polls. Soon, everyone, everywhere in Alaska will be wearing Mead logo wear. Now, if you believe this, then you know that Mead’s campaign is surging. Woo-hoo.

  20. Frank M.

    I love the comment section of your blog. Especially, those written by Treadwell’ssupporters. If Treadwell has so much in-state support why did Sullivan out raise him with in-state contributions? Treadwell has not connected with Alaskams at all. I heard about a fund raiser last week for Sullivan and was surprised by the number of early Treadwell supporters that came to Sullivan’s event. This is becoming silly to think that Treadwell is even a factor in the race. I stand corrected. He is a factor in helping Begich’s re-election. Mead, this Republican will always remember this.

  21. Fernando Villareal

    Treadwell is 100% a better candidate. He really cares for the people, Sullivan doesn’t. Simple as that.

  22. 907guy

    “However, he said ‘one thing is clear, Dan Sullivan is the only candidate that Mark Begich is afraid to take on in the fall.’ He said that’s why Begich and those who support him are attacking Sullivan.” Or Begich is attacking Sullivan to make it appear Sullivan is the front runner, because he wants to run against Sullivan. Mead is the only one to be beating Begich, 47%-43%, in a reliable, non-democrat poll – Rassmussen on March 24. If you strip away the money it is clear who the better candidate is. I encourage you to watch the recorded debate on youtube. The difference in knowledge on alaska issues is astounding. I guess 40 years in alaska in leadership positions really does help.

  23. choo choo its the LOLz train

    DNR dan? You mean “unemployed Dan” or wait… “I”m a marine so long as it helps me hide from debates Dan”

  24. 357

    Are you kidding me? Do you really think this is a reliable poll? First off, you should advis your readers that Dave
    Dittman sold his firm, Dittman Research, to an individual with little or no experience. This is laughable and sad athe same time that a pollster would be so to desparate for attention to release this one aspect of a poll. In fact, most professional pollsters would object to such a minimalist release to protect their reputation. I bet that Begich won’t change his strategy one iota based on this. As we all know, Begich is scared of only one candidate – – DNR Dan.
    In fact, a vote for anyone but Sullivan is a vote for Begich.

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