Contrary to other polls that have been recently released (see here, here, and here), an internal poll conducted by Moore Information, a Portland-based firm that’s polling for GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign, has Sullivan holding a 4 percentage point lead over Sen. Mark Begich, 42 to 38 percent, while 12 percent are still undecided. Third-party candidates Mark Fish and Ted Gianoutsos each are getting 4 percent of the vote.
The poll surveyed 500 voters October 26-28, via cell phone and land line. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
The pollster for Moore, Hans Kaiser, has a long history of polling for Alaska Republicans, including for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Sen. Ted Stevens.
The crosstabs weren’t available, but Kaiser’s memo accompanying the poll said that Sullivan is leading among men 16 points and is trailing by 7 points with women. Kaiser also said that Sullivan has a significant advantage among those most interested in the race. According to Kaiser, the intensity is squaring with the partisan makeup of early voter turnout. Here’s the numbers he’s crunched from Alaska Division of Elections, as of 10.27:
- 35% GOP
- 18.5% Democrat
- 20.2% Non-Partisan
- 23.7% Undeclared
- 2.5% Other