Monthly Archives: June 2014

New poll shows GOP Senate candidates Treadwell and Sullivan neck and neck

Anchorage-based Dittman Research released a poll today that shows that GOP Senate candidates Dan Sullivan and Lieutenant Gov. Mead Treadwell running neck and neck. The poll, paid for by Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, surveyed 500 likely GOP primary voters May 27 – 29. It showed Mead Treadwell with 35 percent of the vote, Dan Sullivan with 37 percent, and Joe Miller with 12 percent. The margin of error is 4.4 percent.

The poll also showed Treadwell with a 74 percent favorable approval rating, Sullivan with a 62 percent, and Miller with a 35 percent favorable rating. Because Independents and nonpartisans are allowed to vote in the Republican primary, Dittman’s sample included 60 percent registered Republicans, Matt Larkin, who owns Dittman, said.

Larkin said that he wasn’t authorized to release the full poll, which also surveyed the lieutenant governor’s race.

Treadwell, naturally, appears happy with the numbers. “Washington, DC power brokers may have made a decision on who the GOP candidate should be, but Alaskans didn’t get the memo,” Treadwell said in a statement. He was referring to Sullivan, who has by far raised the most money in the race and has been considered the frontrunner.

Sullivan’s spokesperson said that it was hard to respond without seeing the full poll. However, he said “one thing is clear, Dan Sullivan is the only candidate that Mark Begich is afraid to take on in the fall.” He said that’s why Begich and those who support him are attacking Sullivan

A poll conducted by Portland-based Moore Research showed that at the end of April, Sullivan had a 16 percent lead over Mead Treadwell and a 26 percentage point lead over Joe Miller with 38 percent of primary voters still undecided.

Moore, like Dittman, is long-associated with Republicans and has a long history for polling for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young. Both firms also polled for the late Sen. Ted Stevens.

Only one thing is for sure: There will be lots of conflicting poll numbers in the coming months.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Four state Senate races worth watching

Monday was the final day for candidates to register in Alaska to run in both federal and state races. The U.S. Senate race has gotten the lion’s share of attention so far in the election. But for us Alaskans who live here, send our children to schools here, fish in our waters, buy our birth control here and collect our Permanent Fund Dividends, the state Legislature is as, if not more, important than the U.S. Senate race. (Click here for the chart of all races compiled by legislative staffer Chris Clark.)

In the Alaska state Senate race, 14 seats are up for election. Three of those– Sens. Berta Gardner, Lyman Hoffman and Donnie Olson—Democrats all, are going unchallenged. Some of the primary and general races will be more competitive than others. And although there are sometimes surprises, for now the four Senate races below appear to be the most interesting and/or competitive.

Clare Ross (D) v Mia Costello (R) – Most thought that this West Anchorage seat being vacated by Hollis French was Rep. Mia Costello’s for the taking, even though it does skew Democratic and was one of the few districts in the state where Obama did well in 2012. However, that changed when Clare Ross dropped out of the House race and decided to run for the Senate. It also probably doesn’t help that Costello got involved in the whole minimum wage imbroglio during the last few weeks of session, and in doing so, incurred the wrath of the unions. She also got sideways with many of the advocates for the increase in school funding. Add that to Ross’s aggressive grassroots efforts—she’s relentlessly door knocking– and you’ve got a race on your hands. As of the last APOC reporting period in February, Ross had raised $31, 000 and had $20,000 cash on hand, much of which has come from small donors. Mia Costello runs strong on her side of the Senate district and has raised $68,000 with $50,000.00 cash on hand, according to her last filed APOC report. This general election race is a tossup for now, with slight edge to Costello.
Bill Stoltze (R) v DeLena Johnson (R) – This is a new Senate seat created by redistricting that spans from Chugiak to Palmer. DeLena Johnson, who is the mayor of Palmer, was an early entrant to the race and in some ways a protégé of Rep. Bill Stoltze, who has also filed for the seat. Stoltze is the odds on favorite here. He’s got the support of the majority of the Valley delegation, and has big support in the Chugiak side of the district. That said, Johnson is no slouch, and she’s hired Marc Hellenthal who intends to make it a race. For his part, Stoltze has Art Hackney, who won’t take anything for granted. This will be a fun primary to watch. The Republican victor in the primary will take on Democratic educator Patricia Chesbro in the general. This seat is likely to remain Republican.
Click Bishop (R) v (R) Mike Miller – Incumbent Fairbanks Sen. Click Bishop defeated Republican National Committeeman Ralph Seekins in what many saw as a huge upset. Bishop is a former union leader and ~~Parnell~~ Palin commissioner of the Department of Labor. Union support is largely credited for Bishop’s win. He still has that support. Further, because of redistricting, this Senate district is very different today and includes parts of Fairbanks and some Bush villages. It’s even better for Bishop, who has worked extensively throughout the Bush over the years and is married to an Alaska Native. That said, we’re talking Republican primary here. And Bishop’s challenger, Mike Miller is a Republican darling. He is a former state senator and GOP lieutenant governor nominee. Miller is part of the well-known North Pole family that owns and operates Santa Claus House, a gift shop “Where every day is Christmas.” His brother, Terry, served in the state legislature, was the senate president and served as Gov. Jay Hammond’s lieutenant governor. The Legislative Affairs Agency building behind the state Capitol building bears his name. Miller, unlike Bishop, will have the establishment and the pro-lifers on his side. Too, Bishop will likely take a beating for his opposition to school choice. Then again, Click has that made-for-campaign-slogan name. Whoever wins the primary will face Democrat Dorothy Shockley in the general. Shockley ran as an independent candidate for House in 2012. It’s likely that this seat will remain Republican.
Cathy Giessel (R) v Harry Crawford (D ) – This Senate district, encompassing parts of East Anchorage, the Hillside and Girdwood, is one of the most diverse in the state. These communities are as different as the two candidates themselves. The incumbent, Cathy Giessel, is considered ultra-conservative and is known to be extremely friendly to oil companies and to business. This, sometimes at the expense of the people. Her Democratic challenger, Harry Crawford, is a former legislator. He’s a former ironworker from Louisiana and still carries that state’s accent and some of its friendly, laid-back style. He’s big on unions, and not so much big on the oil industry. Crawford currently sits on the board of directors of Chugach Electric. Both candidates in this race are known to be hard workers and committed campaigners. Many look at Crawford as being somewhat a legend for defeating former Speaker of the House Ramona Barnes, most familiarly called, “Rambona.” To a large degree, Crawford’s chances of success will depend on how much the unions have his back. At this point, I’d give Giessel a slight edge in winning this race. However, don’t write Crawford off.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Pro-Begich super-PAC goes after GOP Senate candidate Sullivan again on HB 77

Here’s another attack ad from the pro-Mark Begich super-PAC, Put Alaska First, focusing on HB 77, which was one of the most controversial bills introduced in the state Legislature recently. The rap on it is that it proposed to give unprecedented powers to the DNR commissioner to issue permits. At the time of its drafting, Dan Sullivan was the DNR commissioner. The public came out in droves to testify against it and the bill died in the Senate. This is the second ad Put Alaska First has made featuring HB 77. The first featured a moose hunter. This one feautres the well known former Democratic lawmaker Sam Cotten.

Off to the races: First look at coming primary and general elections

races Monday, June 2, was the final day a candidate could file for election in either state or federal office in Alaska. I’ll be going through all the candidates, and doing some sort of analysis soon. For now, here’s a few interesting tidbits:

There are 11 candidates for U.S. Senate. Four of them are Republicans. Two are Democrats. Three are Libertarians, and two are registered as Alaska Independence Party candidates. Former Valley lawmaker Vic Kohring is one of them. Kohring was caught up in the corruption scandal mess. He spent some time in prison. He hitchhiked from Wasilla to Anchorage so that the feds could get him there. And he still has a small following in the Valley.
Six candidates are running for U.S. House of Representatives, the most viable of whom, so far, are incumbent Rep. Don Young, and Democratic challenger Forrest Dunbar. That, it should be noted, could change.
In Sen. Lyman Hoffman’s Senate district, centered in Bethel, both House candidates, as well as Hoffman himself, are unopposed. Rep. Bryce Edgmon, who is one of those House members, won his election in 2006 by a coin toss. The other is Bob Herron.
Of the 40 House members, seven are unopposed.
Two incumbent Democratic House members are being challenged in their own party. Anchorage Rep. Les Gara will be running in the primary against Robert Benton, who ran briefly as a Republican for that seat in 2012. North Slope Rep. Ben Nageak is being challenged by Kotzebue’s Dean Westlake.
In the Senate, 14 of the 20 seats are up, and three of them aren’t being challenged. Democratic Sens. Berta Gardner, Lyman Hoffman and Donnie Olson all get to breathe easy this time around.
On the Republican side, Valley Rep. Bill Stoltze, who is running for Senate, will be facing DeLena Johnson in the primary and Fairbanks Sen. Click Bishop will face Mike Miller, who is a former legislator and former GOP lieutenant governor nominee. He is also Terry Miller’s brother, who was a former Senate president and served as lieutenant governor with Gov. Jay Hammond.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

McGuire drops out of lt. gov race

Citing family pulls, Alaska state Sen. Lesil McGuire announced that she has dropped her bid to run for lieutenant governor in the GOP primary. McGuire will continue her job as senator, and will likely continue to be in a leadership position. Here’s her statement in full:

It is with a year’s worth of thought, contemplation and visiting with Alaskans across our great state that I’ve arrived at the decision it is more effective for me to remain as a policymaker and continue serving Alaskans in that capacity.

I’m particularly anxious to have all of my family together, after 14 years of service, and always putting them behind my public servancy. My husband, children and parents are the most important part of my life. Today, I put them first.

My eight year old son Grayson said it best to me, several weeks ago at a moment when I couldn’t pay attention to him because of the time-consuming campaign, when he asked “Mommy, you’re always busy and working! Would you just be the Lt. Governor of our home?”

It’s been an honor serving my constituency in South Anchorage for the last 14 years. As Rules Chairman, and a member of Senate leadership, I’ll be cognizant of and responsive to the input and opinions received from the thousands of people I have met and listened to across our state.

I love Alaska and it’s been my home all of my life. I look forward to a productive legislative session in 2015 and working with the candidate who wins the seat and becomes our next Lt. Governor.

God bless all Alaskans.

Republicans hitting Begich over new EPA climate change rules

The National Republican Senatorial Committee will be launching robo-calls beginning on Tuesday that target U.S. Sen. Mark Begich’s alleged support for cap and trade. (Listen to the recording of the call here.)

The RNSC’s effort is on the heels of the Obama Administration’s EPA announcement that the agency is proposing new sweeping rules to target coal plants and cut carbon emissions by 30 percent of 2005 levels by 2030. If passed, much of that reduction will be done through a cap and trade plan that will be left up to the individual states.

“It’s not surprising Mark Begich stands by Barack Obama’s costly regulations, because he supported the same cap-and-trade energy tax plan as Obama,” the robo-call will say. “A cap-and-trade energy tax could have killed almost 6,000 Alaska jobs, and reduced disposable income for Alaskan households by more than $1,200.”

The numbers are questionable, as is the charge that Begich supports cap and trade at all. It’s something that he’s consistently denied, and the record is fuzzy.

But what is true is that if the regulations take effect, cap and trade will be a major compliance tool used by states elsewhere. Alaska has an alternative program, so it won’t be used here. But the state’s power plants and coal industry will be affected by the rules.

What’s also true is that in 2010, Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is highly critical of the rule, offered a resolution to stop the EPA from promulgating such regulations. The resolution needed 51 votes. She got 47 votes for it. Begich voted against it. In fact, he gave it a thumbs down on the Senate floor.

A statement by Begich’s press secretary at the time said that he didn’t vote for it because nothing was going to happen immediately. “Some regulations will not go into effect until 2016,” the press secretary wrote. At the time, Begich seemed sure that lawmakers could formulate an energy policy that would make the EPA rule moot.

The draft proposal will now be subject to a 120-day public comment period and will not be finalized until at least June 2015. States will have to submit plans by June 2016.

The issue is likely to haunt Begich throughout the campaign, as well as other Democratic Senators up for reelection in red states.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Alaska Conservation Voters form pro-Begich super-PAC

Alaska Conservation Voters have formed a super-PAC, named SalmonPAC, to help get U.S. Sen. Mark Begich reelected. The super-PAC is planning to use 30 staff and spend $1.1 million going door-to-door and on direct mailers. It has no plans to buy radio or TV spots, its treasure Andy Moderow, said. For the past months, Alaska Conservation Voters have been running a steady stream of commercials thanking Begich for his work on fisheries. Because the ads do not mention the race or directly tell voters how to vote, they are considered “issue ads” and don’t have to be reported as campaign ads.

From the group’s press release:

Senator Begich has an important track record of independent leadership for Alaska in the United States Senate. From his strong opposition to the Pebble mine through his work protecting wild salmon runs and consumers alike from genetically modified fish, he has been a salmon champion that’s shown the kind of leadership Alaska needs in the years to come.

Loose Lips: Kelly has a Democratic challenger, social media gaffes, Graham leaves Commerce

This from a source in the know: “WITHOUT a Dan Sullivan – or a Mead Treadwell or Joe Miller – campaign spending placed on TV and radio alone, in the (Alaska) U,S. Senate race, has now exceeded $20 million from Feb through Nov 4, 2014.”
Word is Department of Commerce Assistant Commissioner Robbie Graham has resigned her position with the state and will become the vice president of operations at the Anchorage Daily News. Graham’s partner, Craig Medred, writes for the Alaska Dispatch/ADN, and their talented daughter, Katie Medred, writes for the Anchorage Press.
Last week, both Alaska’s Democratic Party and U.S. Sen. Mark Begich’s campaign made a big deal about a twitter mess-up made by GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan. When he filed for office, whoever does his tweeting said that he filed in Fairbanks, not in Anchorage. They used that as further evidence that he’s not a “real Alaskan,” etc… However, Sullivan’s campaign could have hit back with its own example of a social media gaffe that could point to a bigger issue in the candidate. On Memorial Day, whoever posts on Begich’s Facebook page pretending to be Begich, said about his visit to Unalaska: “It was a privilege to visit this site during Veterans Day weekend.” It was quickly fixed. Sullivan’s campaign didn’t say a word about it.
Happy birthday to John R. Coyne Jr. The best father in the world, a Marine and a Korean War Vet, who knows the difference between Veterans Day and Memorial Day.
The State of Alaska is seeking to join a lawsuit brought by Pebble against the EPA to prevent the agency from doing what it’s basically already done: “taking land by prematurely limiting development before the state’s permitting processes have a chance to work,” so says the state. Pebble filed the suit earlier this month. Via Attorney General Michael Geraghty: “The EPA’s action undermines Alaska’s ability to utilize its mineral resources to grow the economy and create jobs if, after detailed and lengthy environmental review, permitting is warranted.”
Republican Fairbanks state Sen. Pete Kelly has a Democratic challenger. The challenger, Tamara Kruse Roselius, is 52 years old. The Fairbanks Daily News-Miner reports that she has a law degree but not a license. Instead, “she’s volunteered her legal expertise through the Disability Law Center to local parents with special needs children. She said she helps parents navigate the school system and ensure that their child’s needs are met.”
Monday, June 2, is the last day to file for state and federal office.
Upcoming Events:

June 5, 5 – 7:30 p.m., Rep. Shelley Hughes’ campaign kick-off at the Palmer Downtown Deli, 550 S. Alaska Street.
June 5, 6 – 8:00 p.m., Sean Parnell fundraiser, 183 View Avenue, Fairbanks.
June 5, 5:30 – 7:30 p.m., Yes on One’s first “Statewide Day of Action House Party,” at Tim Steele’s House, 2124 Solstice Cir. Anchorage.
June 7 and 8, 11:00 a.m., Eklutna Potlatch and Pow-Wow. In conjunction and celebration of the National Congress of American Indians mid-year conference, June 8 – 11 in Anchorage.

ObamaCare fears coming true

From Politico:

Liberals wanted a national enrollment system under Obamacare. They might just get it.

Right now, 36 states rely on HealthCare.gov, the federal exchange, to enroll people in health coverage. At least two more states are opting in next year, with a few others likely to follow. Only two states are trying to get out. That’s precisely the opposite of the Affordable Care Act’s original intent: 50 exchanges run by 50 states. The federal option was supposed to be a limited and temporary fallback. But a shift to a bigger, more permanent Washington-controlled system is instead underway — without preparation, funding or even public discussion about what a national exchange covering millions of Americans means for the future of U.S. health care. It’s coming about because intransigent Republicans shunned state exchanges, and ambitious Democrats bungled them.