Here’s uber diviner Larry Sabato’s latest Senate race map as of Oct. 13. Unlike Stu Rothenberg, Sabato hasn’t moved Alaska’s Senate race to”tilt Republican,” leaving Alaska as one of three toss-up states.

• Politico’s Morning Score got the scoop on the latest and greatest of the ads coming to a TV near you. The DSCC has released a new ad called “The Pledge” focusing on Sullivan’s pledge to give employer’s control over birth control coverage while leading the camera down a scenic road in Alaska and winding around a medical office’s corridors and finally ending in a doctor’s office. Meanwhile American Crossroads has released their ad attacking Sen. Mark Begich on Anchorage’s fiscal situation when he became senator.  Cheryl Frasca makes an appearance wearing a stunning purple blouse.

• Lt. governor candidate Byron Mallot surprised many when he agreed that SB21 was working.

• Sean Parnell’s decision to appeal the federal court ruling allowing for gay marriage within Alaska has not gone unnoticed by Towelroad. While the issue of gay marriage might not add voters to Parnell’s column on November 4, could his decision add angry voters to Walkers’ side of the ballot results? Perhaps, if Walker spoke out forcefully against the appeal, that is, which he hasn’t.

• The Mat-Su Valley Frontiersman is opening its wedding and engagement page to same-sex couples. From the editorial: “While the state of Alaska says it will appeal this ruling, so long as same-sex weddings are legal in Alaska, their announcements are welcome in the Frontiersman — because we are for everyone….This is about treating everyone with dignity and respect. It’s about treating other people as we want to be treated ourselves.

• The Wall Street Journal has an article about how Native Americans could become the key to ensuring Democratic control of the U.S. Senate with turnout drive in both South Dakota and Alaska.

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Senate District N comprises portions of East Anchorage, the South Anchorage Hillside and stretches down through Turnagain Arm to Girdwood. Small pockets of the district, particularly in Girdwood, or Girdweird, as some call it, are Chomsky-style lefty. Others, particularly those who live in the mega-mansions on the hillside, are Reagan-righties. And its home to what will undoubtedly be one of the most expensive and hard fought legislative races in this election cycle. The Senate race in this district—pitting former legislator Harry Crawford against Republican incumbent Cathy Giessel, is a particularly hot race. The House races, which put incumbent Republicans Lance Pruitt and Mike Hawker versus challengers Matt Moore and Sam Combs, are less hot, but also competitive.

Here’s a little about the two candidates running for state Senate and the candidates running for the two House seats in the district, and my take on the current status of these races, for what it’s worth. Continue reading →

Gov. Sean Parnell’s campaign has had it rough lately. Today, however, it got at least a little boost when lieutenant governor candidate Byron Mallott admitted during a lieutenant governor’s forum that although he voted to repeal the oil tax bill, “SB 21 is working.”

Here’s the audio of that that’s zipping through the tubes:

The Parnell campaign said it was “pleased.”

Also along those lines, Tim Bradner has a piece about the $20 per barrel drop in oil prices since July and that the state is better protected against such drops under SB 21 than it would be under ACES. “We are much better protected under MAPA than we would have been at these oil prices,” Commissioner of Department of Revenue Angela Rodell is quoted as saying.

Bradner explains:

MAPA has a fixed tax rate of 35 percent while the tax rate under ACES fluctuated with changes in oil values and as oil prices drop the ACES tax rate would have dropped quickly. At $90 per barrel, ACES would bring in about $3.08 billion. Under MAPA, revenues would be $3.22 billion, according to an analysis by the Revenue Department.

As expected, Jim Mnnery from the Alaska Family Action responded to yesterday’s ruling by District Court Judge Timothy Burgess, striking down Alaska’s gay marriage ban. Among other things, he called the decision a “subversion of the democratic process” and Burgess, who was appointed by President George W. Bush and confirmed by a Republican-led Senate, “a foot soldier,” who “fell right in line with the rest of the activist courts.”

Here are some of Minner’s takeaway’s from the decision: Continue reading →

• Sunday was momentous for many Alaskans because of the U.S. District Court judge’s ruling that officially overturned Alaska’s ban on same sex marriage. Gov. Sean Parnell was quick to issue a press release that Alaska will appeal the decision and Bill Walker issued his own something-for-everybody press release. Many however, were too busy celebrating to worry too much about the politics. The media was on it. Read  SFGate, Fairbanks News Miner, the Mudflats, The Hill, MSNBC, CNN, Reuters, Human Rights Campaign, and many more.

• Rothenberg Political Report has moved the U.S. Senate race from “pure toss-up” to “toss-up/tilt Republican”.  Stuart Rothenberg says it’s President Obama’s fault.

• Becky Bohrer with the AP has an article covering U.S. Senator Mark Begich’s Saturday speech to Juneau volunteers along with fellow U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota. Summation: the Alaska Senate race is about the state’s future, not about Obama.

• Alaska Peninsula Corporation’s President and CEO, Mary Jane Nielsen and Illiamna Development Corporation’s CEO, Lisa Reimer,  wrote a piece for the Seattle Times that outlined why they believed Native people’s voices regarding Pebble Mine are being left out of the discussion on the mine’s future.

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Here’s gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker’s response to Gov. Parnell’s announcement that his administration will appeal Sunday’s federal court ruling lifting the Alaska’s gay marriage ban. There’s something here for nearly everyone, except for those who want a clear stand. He seems to indicate that the appeal is unwise, however, he stops short of saying that he would or wouldn’t appeal if he were Parnell:

I continue to view marriage as the union of a man and a woman. However, as governor, I will place my hand on the Bible and swear to uphold the laws of the land.

Governor Parnell has indicated he will appeal today’s district court decision.  Upon taking office, I will review all major litigation in which the State is involved and determine the merits of pursuit, settlement or dismissal.

Despite my personal views on marriage, with the State’s dire financial crisis, pursuing expensive litigation that has little chance of victory is an unwise use of our dwindling resources. “

On Sunday, U.S. District Court Judge Timothy Burgess struck down the Alaska’s constitutional ban against gay marriage, and ordered the state to immediately begin marrying same sex couples. The state could appeal, IS going to appeal. (Read the press release on that below.)  But it will almost certainly lose. The state will have to appeal to the 9th Circuit, which has recently upheld such rulings, as has the U.S. Supreme Court. On Friday, Burgess heard arguments in Anchorage from lawyers of five couples suing the state to overturn the ban, which was enacted in 1998. The state defended the ban, arguing, basically, that voters get to decide marriage laws.

Burgess was nominated by President George W. Bush to be U.S. Attorney for the District of Alaska, where he served until 2005. Bush then nominated him to sit on the bench. He was confirmed by a Republican-controlled Senate in December, 2005.

Here’s the summary and the conclusion from the 27-page ruling. Read the full ruling here. 

In sum, any relationship between Alaska’s same-sex marriage laws and the government interests asserted by Defendants is either nonexistent or purely speculative. Alaska’s same-sex marriage laws are a prime example of how “the varying treatment of different groups or persons is so unrelated to the achievement of any combination of legitimate purposes that we can only conclude that the legislature’s actions were irrational.” Refusing the rights and responsibilities afforded by legal marriage sends the public a government-sponsored message that same-sex couples and their familial relationships do not warrant the status, benefits, and dignity given to couples of the opposite sex. This Court finds that Alaska’s same-sex marriage laws violate the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment because no state interest provides “exceedingly persuasive justification” for the significant infringement of rights that they inflict upon homosexual individuals.

CONCLUSION

Any state interests identified by Defendants are insufficient for Alaska’s same-sex marriage laws to pass constitutional muster under due process or equal protection. Plaintiffs’ Motion for Summary Judgment at Docket 20 is GRANTED. With this ruling, the Court hereby DECLARES that Alaska’s same-sex marriage laws are unconstitutional for violating the Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The Court IMMEDIATELY ENJOINS the state of Alaska, including state officers, personnel, agents, government divisions, and other political entities, from enforcing Alaska Constitution Article 1, Section 25 and Alaska Statute Sections 25.05.011 and 25.05.013 to the extent that the laws prohibit otherwise qualified same-sex couples from marriage and refusing to recognize lawful same-sex marriages entered in other states.

Here’s the press release from Gov. Sean Parnell’s office announcing that it will appeal the decision: Continue reading →

A little context here: Ben Sparks is GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign manager. Vince Beltrami is the president of Alaska AFL-CIO. Chris Maloney works for the Virginia-based Black Rock Group, which is consulting for Sullivan’s campaign. Kyle Kohli works for the RNC and is here in Anchorage.

#disunityticket RT @akgop: #Awkward: Bill Walker is STILL refusing to endorse @MarkBegich https://t.co/2pf7DG9ws7 #AKSen #AKGov

— Ben Sparks (@BenjaminSparks) October 11, 2014

@CHRISMAL0NEY if you weren’t a DC dipshit, you’d know Walker isn’t the “Democratic nominee”- VOTE @MarkBegich #aksen #akgov — Vince Beltrami (@vincebeltrami) October 11, 2014

.@vincebeltrami @CHRISMAL0NEY @MarkBegich Then what’s this. I’m confused #AKSen #AKGov pic.twitter.com/ZLeOJYMCn1

— Kyle Kohli (@kylekohli) October 11, 2014

Months ago, U.S. Sen. Mark Begich declined to sign an agreement which was proposed by Republican challenger Dan Sullivan which would have gone a long way to snuff out super-PAC and other independent expenditure money in the Senate race. The agreement would have required both candidates to publicly tell third-party spending groups, including super-PACS, to cease all television and radio ads which “clearly identifies either of us and supports or attacks our campaigns.”

If the groups didn’t obey, Sullivan wanted Begich to agree to donate 50 percent of an individual ad buy to the charity of the opposing candidate’s choice. A similar agreement worked to stem the flow of campaign spending from outside groups elsewhere.

Begich’s campaign called it a “political machination.”

Now, 26 days before the election, Begich is calling on Sullivan to sign an agreement that would require a similar allotment to charity if a group that doesn’t disclose its donors runs ads supporting or opposing candidates. Continue reading →

Here’s a comment from a reader—nominally edited–on the piece I wrote on Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s seeming lack of knowledge of healthcare. I found it particularly interesting because the writer, like me, is insured under ObamaCare. And although this person has realized the benefits of the program, he/she still remains opposed:

I appreciate your analysis and personal touch in this article. I somewhat ironically remain opposed to the ACA despite being on the exchange for the better part of a year. I can appreciate the benefits the ACA brings to the under-served and marginalized portions of the population–especially in terms of the relativity cost effective Medicaid expansion and emphasis on preventative care. My experience on the exchange was not terrible. It was difficult to navigate, but I didn’t really experience any of the horrible glitches. Going on the exchange allowed me to work as a private contractor and cut my hours from 45 a week to 38 and I appreciated having that flexibly.

My problems with the ACA stem less from the practical merits Continue reading →