From Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:
Speaking of primaries, it’s been fascinating to watch the GOP contest in Alaska, where Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell (R) started as the favorite but has been such a mess that the nomination is now former state Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan’s (R) to lose. In fact, a couple Republican operatives separately told us that if Treadwell continues on in the primary, the distraction could cost Sullivan the seat. Also planning to run in the August primary is Joe Miller, the Republican nominee who lost to Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R) write-in campaign in 2010. GOP leaders aren’t worried about Miller winning the nomination, but a three-way race could further bog down Sullivan. Meanwhile, Sen. Mark Begich (D) is, we believe, a formidable incumbent whose biggest problem remains the Last Frontier’s significant Republican lean.
Treadwell needs to drop out of the race. Treadwell’s friends and advisors need to be honest with him before he wastes any more of his own money.
Rather funny to hear, closeness to Obama. Begich, is and remains a very moderate Democrat.
The underlying demographics of Alaska are fertile electoral ground for a republican senatorial candidate. As you can see from the map, the are ranking Alaska as a toss-up. Not sure if that is because of Begich’s failures and closeness to Obama or because of the demographics I mentioned or a combination of the two. In any case, the race ios shaping up to be a general between Begich and Sullivan. Time will tell what type of candidate and campaign we’ll get from Sullivan. While Sullivan has proven to be a fairly good candidate, his campaign has proven to be rather inept. While I don’t know his campaign manager, I hear that he is inexperienced, lazy and it shows. This race will be the one that will determine the control of the senate.
Treadwell’s campaign is toast. He should get out of the race for the good of the party. I suspect his ego won’t allow such and he’ll face humiliatiion at the polls.