I just got off the phone with pollster Ivan Moore, who often works for Democratic groups, and who has been doing state-wide polling on races and on issues. Based on his data and on gut, here are his predictions for the GOP primary Senate race and Ballot Measure #1:
U.S. GOP Senate primary race:
- Dan Sullivan: About 44 percent
- Joe Miller: About 30 percent
- Mead Treadwell: About 26 percent.
Moore predicts that No on #1 is going to win by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points.
Update: Marc Hellenthal, another pollster, sees a bigger Joe Miller surge than does Moore. But he predicts that the order is right.
Ms. Coyne,
I was called about 90 minutes ago by a poll. The woman identified herself as an Ivan Moore pollster. She was not from Alaska. She asked only about 4 people; Begich, Parnell, and the two candidates for state house in my district. No other candidates were mentioned whatsoever. She asked about likelihood of voting in November, confirmed I live in the district, sex (not often enough was not the right answer), and that was about it. Who would have paid for such a poll this evening?
Thank you.
Amanda:
Your election day coverage has been phenomenal. Compared to the Anchrage Daily Whatever It’s Called This Week your coverage is what the insiders are living off of despite the Daily Whatever’s blog that has their full team of reporters throwing out useless nonsense. I for one wanted to express my appreciation and admiration for your blog and the product you’ve consistently put out this election cycle. Now, I’m off to vote.
Moore conducted a poll back in the day that had Alaskans opposed to ANWR! So consider the source!
Anyone not on Sullivan’s payroll get to make predictions?
Life is looking good.
Hey Amanda,
What did the last credible poll show on Prop 1?
Thanks!