I just got off the phone with pollster Ivan Moore, who often works for Democratic groups, and who has been doing state-wide polling on races and on issues. Based on his data and on gut, here are his predictions for the GOP primary Senate race and Ballot Measure #1:
U.S. GOP Senate primary race:
- Dan Sullivan: About 44 percent
- Joe Miller: About 30 percent
- Mead Treadwell: About 26 percent.
Moore predicts that No on #1 is going to win by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points.
Update: Marc Hellenthal, another pollster, sees a bigger Joe Miller surge than does Moore. But he predicts that the order is right.