New Ivan Moore poll has pot up by 18 points

According to a question on a poll conducted by local pollster Ivan Moore, Ballot Measure 2, which would tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol, is winning in the state by about 18 percentage points, 57.2 percent to 38.7 percent The question about the measure was paid for by the group working to legalize pot in Alaska, and was asked as part of a larger poll that Moore was conducting. The sample size was 568 likely voters, and was conducted Sept. 26-30. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. (I’m waiting for the complete demographics.)

Taylor Bickford, who’s running the legalization campaign, said that the numbers seem a little optimistic to him. Older internal polls showed the campaign winning, but by a slimmer margin, he said. However, the poll is significant in that it’s the first public poll that asks the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot. A highly touted August PPP poll which showed the measure losing messed up the wording in the question. Further, the PPP poll didn’t call cell phones, which are a key demographic in this race.

Here was how the question was phrased:

There is an initiative on the General election ballot that would tax and regulate the production, sale, and use of marijuana in Alaska. Criminal penalties would be removed for adults over the age of 21 who possess up to an ounce of marijuana, and constitutional protections allowing home cultivation would be preserved.

Here’s the results:

  • Favor: 57.2%
  • Oppose: 38.7%
  • Neutral/Undecided: 4.2%
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28 thoughts on “New Ivan Moore poll has pot up by 18 points”

  2. Dan Fagan

    Actually Ivan predicted that No on #1 is going to win by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points on election day before the polls closed according to Amandacoyne.com.

  3. Dan Fagan

    Amanda reported right before the election the following….

    I just got off the phone with pollster Ivan Moore, who often works for Democratic groups, and who has been doing state-wide polling on races and on issues. Based on his data and on gut, here are his predictions for Ballot Measure #1:

    Moore predicts that No on #1 is going to win by anywhere from 10 to 13 percentage points.

  4. Care Clift

    I was at the Soldotna Debate today. I made it clear, in the first question, that I am not a “social conservative” like my three male opponents for Governor. A medical marijuana user came up to me afterwards and thanked me for running. He gave me some interesting research on the effect of cannabinoids on PTSD and other medical issues. If, for no other reason, we need to vote “yes” so that medical marijuana patients can have access to their medicine. CareClift for Alaska

  5. John Smith

    Interesting that Dittman numbers are completely opposite of Moore’s. Someone has this wrong on a massive scale. I wonder if Ivan is about to get his butt handed to him…again?

  7. Ivan Moore

    Further on the really very strong cell phone issue. I just went back into the data for this survey and looked at the RAW, unweighted data. A total of 568 registered, likely voters were interviewed and asked this question. 310 respondents were surveyed on landlines… these people voted the pot initiative DOWN by 43-53 (just like in the cellphone-less poll). 258 respondents were surveyed on cellphones… these folks voted FOR it by 61-35. It really is fascinating what different pictures you get of the public dependent on what kind of a communication device you happen to be talking to them through, and clearly it is vital to mix the two pictures appropriately. However, since about 94% of people in Alaska have a cellphone and only 53% or so have a landline (and often a defunct one at that), the cell measure is by FAR the more accurate.

  8. Ivan Moore

    These particular numbers are public. The others on the survey are not right now. Not, as the conspiracy theorists would suggest, because they say things I don’t want them to say, but because they belong to their respective clients and it’s their decision as to whether they get released.

  9. Derp

    Ivan- are the other numbers public? Would be curious to look. And if your #s on other races/issues matched more conventional wisdom, would quiet down the doubters for this info

  10. Anonymoust

    Ivan Moore just published a completely biased Op/Ed in the Anchorage press. Why should anyone believe his numbers? Remember his poll on the Berkowitz vs Don Young race? Yup, exactly, he rarely gets them right.

  11. Kyle Johansen

    The small % off undecideds is interesting…so even if it is half right the margin of error AND undecideds need to sweep the no side of the issue…not bloody likely…Gov Murkowski’s written rant (likely on Papyrus paper) against initiatives isn’t helping the no vote either…

  12. Pat Race

    Thank you Ivan for dropping into the comments to share a bit more about the methodology. I always wondered how different polls dealt with cell phones.

  15. Ivan Moore

    First of all, @Dan Fagan… I can’t believe I actually waste time coming back at your shit, but if you check my final piece in the Anchorage Press right before the primary election, I said I expected Prop 1 to fail, probably by 10 points. These intricacies of detail, you know, whether I said something would likely pass or fail, I understand are hard for you to grasp.

    On these poll numbers, what is key to understand is that the demographic weighting of the sample set includes making sure that the percent of “cell-only” respondents is adequately represented, something that no other pollster does. Cell-only people now comprise nearly HALF of the state adult population. And suffice to say, the numbers in my poll had the cell-only crowd voting for marijuana legalization by 70-25. You cite the PPP poll as having a messed up question… but what’s more to the point is that they use an automated technology… you know, press 1 for Yes, 2 for No… and as such are legally prohibited from calling any cellphones at all! You think their 20% “internet” sample will come close to adequately representing people without landlines?

  16. Steve Brostko

    I have no doubt Moore asked about the senate race. Since he didn’t release those numbers, I bet Sullivan is up big.

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