Vilifying the billionaire Koch brothers, who have been top contributors to conservative, free market causes and candidates, is a major goal of the national Democrats , in order to undercut the brothers’ messages and influence. Some, like the Wall Street Journal’s Kim Strassel, thinks that it’s working. She cites decreased giving to the Republican Party and Republican super-PACs as evidence, saying that such attacks against the Koch brothers have made Republican donors “skittish.”  (The hundreds of millions they put in Mitt Romney’s losing campaign also didn’t help). In any case, as the ADN’s Nat Herz first wrote, it’s unclear if this latest attempt to go after Sullivan via the Kochs is going to work in Fairbanks, where the ad, courtesy of the International Association of Firefighters’ super-PAC, is running. It is perhaps too much of a step removed, and as many in Fairbanks know, there’s lots of blame to go around in that Koch-brothers refinery closure. Then again, it’s Fairbanks, and it’s always been hard to predict what the people up there are going to do and what’s going to take hold.  It’s conservative country, but not corporate-conservative country, as evidenced by the whopping 56 percent who voted to repeal Ballot Measure 1. That vote doesn’t bode well for Sullivan, who fought against repealing the measure, and more problematic yet, doesn’t at all exude a populist vibe.

Whether the ad works or not, the photoshoppped ghost-of-Sullivan at the end of the ad is kind of fun. Watch the ad here.

Independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker released the results of a poll that he commissioned by Anchorage-based Hays Research Group that shows that if the choice were between Walker and Gov. Sean Parnell, Walker would be beating Parnell by 2 points. The spread is even wider if those “leaning” toward Walker are included. Democratic candidate Byron Mallott was not mentioned in the survey.

The poll of 474 voters was conducted August 20 – 22. It says that about 39 percent would vote for Walker, and that 4.4 percent are leaning Walker. Parnell would get about 37 percent of the vote with another 2.7 percent leaning Parnell. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Fifteen percent of the electorate is still undecided.

From a Walker statement on the results: Continue reading →

All the writing and talking about Brad Keithley’s pledge not to join a caucus that requires them to vote on the budget as a condition of membership, may be moot, for incumbent legislators anyway. Incumbents are guided by the Legislative Ethics Act. (Non-incumbents go to APOC for guidance and opinions, which don’t always comport to Ethics. It’s a mess. But that’s another story.) In April, the Legislative Ethics Committee addressed the issue of pledges in exchange for monetary support, which Keithley is offering. Keithley said that he will put up to $200,000 of his own money into supporting candidates who demonstrate support for a sustainable budget. One key way to demonstrate that is to sign the pledge, he wrote.

Legislators have been in touch with Legislative Ethics, looking for guidance. When they do, they have been sent to the following opinion that seems to indicate that signing such pledge under such conditions violates the Legislative Ethics Act: Continue reading →

Most people can agree, even, it appears, the candidate himself, that Democratic gubernatorial candidate Byron Mallott has gotten a slow start in the race. Here’s his first radio ad of the general election. Will it help to ignite some sort of spark? I think it’s pretty good. I played it for a friend of mine who thought it’s soft and vague, and that there’s nothing that clings to the ribs. What do you guys think?

As I wrote last week, Brad Keithley, an Anchorage-based politically active lawyer and consultant, sent out a questionnaire to candidates, testing their fiscally conservative creds. For a few years now, Keithley has been focused on the state’s budget problems. He was toying at taking a run for governor, but decided against it. However, he still wants to make a difference. He has said that he is willing to put up to $200,000 of his own money trying to elect candidates who are serious about cutting the budget. To that end, he sent all the candidates that questionnaire. He’ll use those answers, along with the results of a poll that he commissioned, to choose the candidates.

One of the 11 questions is the following about a pledge: “Will you publicly commit prior to the election not to join any legislative caucus that conditions your membership upon your support of and vote for whatever budget is sent to the floor by the Finance Committee?”

Keithley hasn’t said if an affirmative answer is requisite for his support. It is, however, implied.

Like many of the plethora of pledges, Continue reading →

Below are some interesting questions that a reader was asked from a polling firm testing the strengths of various messages, which could potentially both support and/or work against Senate candidates Dan Sullivan and Sen. Mark Begich. It’s unclear who paid for the survey. In any case, who’s paying for it is less interesting than the questions themselves, which give a preview into what’s likely to come to a television screen near you. (An interesting note: although the questions run the gamut, nothing was asked about the Pebble Mine, which, as the pro-Begich super-PAC Put Alaska First is well aware, will be a big issue in the race.)

Keep in mind that some of them are rough and may not be transcribed perfectly. The reader was typing them as fast as his or her fingers could go. Also note that my job here wasn’t to fact check statements or the assumptions embedded in the questions, some of which are patently false. (Dan Sullivan did not defraud the VA, for instance. There’s absolutely no proof that Mark Begich did anything nefarious in business deals with local developer Jon Rubini. And I’ve never once heard about him keeping a helicopter here.)

Here it goes: Continue reading →

Since Dan Sullivan won the GOP Senate primary race on Tuesday, it’s been unclear how much Joe Miller, who saw a late surge and came in second in the race, was going to be involved in Sullivan’s campaign. Sullivan and Miller had a “positive” meeting on Wednesday, Sullivan’s campaign spokesperson said. But that’s as far as he would go. Miller’s spokesperson didn’t immediately return a call.

Miller said during the last debate of the campaign that he would support the Republican nominee. But support comes in all degrees. Miller got 29,173 votes on Tuesday night. Those are numbers to pay attention to. Sen. Mark Begich beat then Sen. Ted Stevens by about 4,000 votes in 2008. Many of Miller’s tea party supporters will vote for Sullivan anyway in the general. But not all of them without Miller’s full-throttled endorsement.

A release that Miller sent today (in full below) appears to indicate that Miller at least will fight back against Begich when his name his used by Begich to attack Sullivan, Continue reading →

Fairbanks state Sen. Click Bishop’s campaign has been full throttle even though his Republican opponent dropped out of the race long ago. Fundraisers. Media attention. As Click would say, “Click is clicking.” What’s afoot here? Just being a good Republican? Fighting the freedom cause? There’s probably some of that. But remember, we’re talking about a politician, one who is beginning to make it known that he has his eyes set on the governor’s chair in four years.

Speaking of real gubernatorial candidates, Independent candidate Bill Walker and his wife, Donna, celebrated their 37th wedding anniversary on Wednesday.

Jeremy Price has been named the Alaska Director for Americans for Prosperity. Prior to this position, he worked at the American Petroleum Institute and has worked in the offices of both Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young. The AFP, a Koch brothers funded group, is said to be serious about organizing in Alaska even after the elections are over.  Continue reading →

Americans for Prosperity, a Koch brothers funded group, released an ad today featuring Steve Perrin, the owner of Rainy Pass Lodge in Skwentna, Alaska, about 50 miles north of Wasilla. The lodge is well-known in Alaska, and was the subject of a reality show. The AFP buy is about $1 million.

In the ad, Perrin talks about the Alaska “value of hard work, taking care of yourself and your family.” He claims that U.S Sen. Mark Begich “hasn’t been showing up for work” and that he missed more votes last year than more than 80 percent of his colleagues. According to the tracking site that’s featured on the ad, Begich missed 4.5 percent of total votes in his career. He missed a total of 12 votes in 2013. This year, he’s missed 46. In April through June alone, he missed 22 votes. That said, his over-all total voting attendance record is higher than Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s record. Also, keep in mind that because of the distance between Alaska, and D.C., the state’s congressional delegation always misses more votes than most other federal officials in other states.

Further, the message of self-sufficiency in the ad is muddled by the fact that like many small businesses in Alaska, Perrins’ lodge Continue reading →

Anchorage lawyer and consultant Brad Keithley, who has committed $200,000 of his own money to support fiscally conservative candidates in the upcoming races, has sent out a questionnaire to try to test the fiscally conservative commitment of those candidates. (See the questionnaire here).

Keithley, who has been pushing for decreased spending in the state, had been toying with running for governor this past winter. In the end he opted to effect change in other ways, including setting up an independent expenditure committee. When he announced the formation of the committee, he said that he would use the money to support three to five or so specific candidates. He says that the seats that he’ll target are ones that are winnable. ”We’re going to be professional and serious about this,” Keithley said. “I want to move the needle.”

Keithley has been using a 2013 report by UAA’s Institute of Social and Economic Research, to argue that the state cannot sustain current spending levels. Continue reading →

From Wednesday’s New York Times column on the race, making a case that Dan Sullivan’s victory last night doesn’t spell doom for Sen. Mark Begich’s reelection chances and why the state is more sympathetic to Democrats than it would appear:

Alaska’s electoral politics are among the worst understood in the country: The state has had only a handful of competitive federal contests over 54 years since 1960, and there are no neighboring states from which to draw comparisons. The state has defied the expectations of electoral analysts since it was admitted as a state in 1959, when most thought it would become dependably Democratic. It then proceeded to vote Republican in 1960 in the presidential race, and in every other such contest since Johnson’s landslide re-election in 1964.

A reader sent me the following, making the case the the piece actually does the opposite of what it intended to do:

It is never a good sign for an incumbent when previously supportive national media outlets can only muster a weak “he can still win!” rallying cry instead of a confident, “he’s got this in the bag, baby!” once Sullivan became the official contender.  Nate Cohn of the NYT eagerly attempted to spin Sullivan’s win last night as “no big thang” because Alaska is too difficult to predict.  His skewed analysis on Alaska’s federal election history tried to buffer his argument to show that Republicans have only won their seats due to luck and not by the support of the people.  This is all bad for Begich, (even after Cohn painted Begich with the “scion of a state political dynasty” brush) because while most Alaskans don’t get their pulse of state politics from the NYT, Outside limousine liberals do and when deciding to whom to write those lovely large checks…articles like this matter.

Fairbanks has a new Democratic state House candidate. Today, the day after the primary election, Elizabeth Clark, or “Putt,” as she’s affectionately called, dropped out of the race. The new candidate, chosen by local Democrats is Adam Wool, a Fairbanks business owner. Wool owns and runs the popular Blue Loon, and with his brother, started Hot Licks Homemade Ice Cream.

Wool will be running against Republican Rep. Pete Higgins, who is a dentist. Higgins is in the majority.  However, he’s not a prodigious fundraiser. He’s only raised $4,083 this election cycle, and unlike many other incumbents, he didn’t bring with him a war-chest from last year. Continue reading →

The day after the primary election, the pro-Mark Begich super-PAC, Put Alaska First, is up with a new beautifully produced TV ad. This one takes on Dan Sullivan, who won the GOP primary on Tuesday night, for his alleged support of the highly controversial Pebble Mine in Western Alaska. If built, the mine would produce 80.6 billion pounds of copper, 107.4 million ounces of gold and 5.6 billion pounds of molybdenum. It would be one of the largest gold and copper mines in the world and would sit on the headwaters of one of the world’s largest wild salmon runs. The mine has been drawing significant opposition since 2006 and for the last few years, people have been pushing Begich on his views about it. Only in January did he come out against it, miming Ted Stevens’ long-held opposition as the “wrong mine” in the “wrong place.” By the time Begich took his stand, it was almost certain that the EPA would take preemptive action and block the mine’s development, which it is in the process of doing. The EPA’s actions are unprecedented. The Pebble Mine would be on state lands, and many say should be subject to state, not federal law. Pebble hasn’t officially applied for all the necessary permits, nor has it submitted a final project plan. However, the EPA says that under any scenario, the mine would destroy up to 94 miles of streams, including five to 22 miles of salmon spawning streams, and 5,350 acres of wetlands. To be clear: Sullivan, like Sen. Lisa Murkowski, U.S. Rep. Don Young, Gov. Sean Parnell, and nearly all of the state’s Republicans, hasn’t said that he supports the mine. Rather, they all object to the EPA’s preemptive process.