Early Republican Senate race poll released

A recent poll conducted by Ivan Moore, an Anchorage-based political consultant, shows that among Republican Senate candidates, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell has 34.1 percent of the vote, former DNR commissioner Dan Sullivan has 28.5 percent and Joe Miller 19.4 percent. About 18 percent were undecided.

The poll was conducted between Dec. 15-22 and sampled 335 voters likely to vote in the 2014 Republican primary race. The respondents are comprised of 55 percent Republican and, 45 percent independents, or those who are registered as nonpartisans. Republican Party rules dictate that registered Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary.

It’s unclear Moore declined to say who paid for the poll, though he has often worked for Democratic candidates and for unions.

It’s a tough race to poll. Dan Sullivan the Senate candidate shares the same name as Anchorage’s mayor Dan Sullivan, who is running for lieutenant governor. In the poll, Moore referred to the Senate candidate as the former DNR commissioner. However, it’s likely that some, if not many, respondents sampled are getting the two confused.

What does appear to be clear, however, is that Joe Miller is doing better than many thought. His numbers don’t look good in Anchorage, but he’s doing well in the Mat-Su, Fairbanks and Kenai, where he was strong when he won the primary against U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2010.

Senate candidate Dan Sullivan announced on Tuesday that he raised $1.25 million in the last quarter, a number that will likely catapult him to frontrunner status. He also has solid Republican credentials. However it’s not always the case that the biggest fundraiser wins races, particularly in primary races where voters tend to be more ideological and partisan.

Moore said that people don’t like Dan Sullivan much yet. “He can push his qualifications as much as he likes, it’s not going to make people like him,” Moore said. “And that’s what voting for someone is really about.”

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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6 thoughts on “Early Republican Senate race poll released

  1. Frank n. stein

    I think the poll shows that people need to hear from these three in some wide ranging debates. If this is such an important race for the state and country, then let’s here from them. I support Sullivan and I believe he will outshine the others with his knowledge of the issues and his ability to actually lend veterans and Alaskans a strong voice in the Senate.

    Reply
  2. Jordan

    This poll is drivel. The sample is too small, we have no idea if it’s even a representative sample (it’s probably not), and I doubt the appropriate amount of cell numbers were included. Nobody should even talk about this poll.

    Reply
  3. Mat-Su Miner

    Bob T’s comment isn’t reality based. Mead. Treadwell just can’t raise enough funds to be credible. If he stays in the primary race, he’ll finish 3rd in a 3 way race.

    Reply
  4. AlaskaCodPiece

    The way the two Dan’s are being differentiated: the Senate candidate already is widely called “DNR Dan” – a moniker that will be his undoing. Fair or not, it immediately associates him with SB 21, Pebble Mine, Chuitna coal, removing the public from land/water decisions – the list goes on and on.

    Begich should use that name every time he opens his mouth, especially in bush AK.

    Reply
  5. Bob T

    We need someone like Mead who has a long history in Alaska and really knows our needs. He has the experience on Alaska issues.

    Reply
  6. J.Kennedy

    I am also surprised how well Miller has done. I still believe Treadwell has the experience and strong conservative mindset to be beat all contenders, as well as Begich!

    Its going to be an interesting year for sure.

    Reply

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