A recent poll conducted by Ivan Moore, an Anchorage-based political consultant, shows that among Republican Senate candidates, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell has 34.1 percent of the vote, former DNR commissioner Dan Sullivan has 28.5 percent and Joe Miller 19.4 percent. About 18 percent were undecided.
The poll was conducted between Dec. 15-22 and sampled 335 voters likely to vote in the 2014 Republican primary race. The respondents are comprised of 55 percent Republican and, 45 percent independents, or those who are registered as nonpartisans. Republican Party rules dictate that registered Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary.
It’s unclear Moore declined to say who paid for the poll, though he has often worked for Democratic candidates and for unions.
It’s a tough race to poll. Dan Sullivan the Senate candidate shares the same name as Anchorage’s mayor Dan Sullivan, who is running for lieutenant governor. In the poll, Moore referred to the Senate candidate as the former DNR commissioner. However, it’s likely that some, if not many, respondents sampled are getting the two confused.
What does appear to be clear, however, is that Joe Miller is doing better than many thought. His numbers don’t look good in Anchorage, but he’s doing well in the Mat-Su, Fairbanks and Kenai, where he was strong when he won the primary against U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski in 2010.
Senate candidate Dan Sullivan announced on Tuesday that he raised $1.25 million in the last quarter, a number that will likely catapult him to frontrunner status. He also has solid Republican credentials. However it’s not always the case that the biggest fundraiser wins races, particularly in primary races where voters tend to be more ideological and partisan.
Moore said that people don’t like Dan Sullivan much yet. “He can push his qualifications as much as he likes, it’s not going to make people like him,” Moore said. “And that’s what voting for someone is really about.”
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