It’s not the very best time to take polls seriously, considering how startlingly wrong pollsters got the Virginia House race. Even the group which released the most recent public poll on the U.S. Senate primary in Alaska, got it wrong in Virginia. That said, the Daily Caller/Vox Populi poll didn’t get it as wrong as some other groups did, one of which had House Majority Leader Eric Cantor up more than 30 points. And it did sound the alarm a few days before the primary, saying that Cantor was “struggling.”
In any case, a poll is just a slice of what people are feeling at a particular point and time, and right now the electorate is still largely undecided, as one would expect.
According to the Daily Caller/Vox Populi poll conducted June 5-9, a whopping 31 percent of the Alaskan electorate either didn’t know which candidate they would vote for in the Republican Senate primary, or were going to vote for someone other than Joe Miller, Mead Treadwell, or former DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan.
I don’t have the poll itself, so I don’t know what the makeup of it was. But the story accompanying it said that out of 619 surveyed, 32 percent said that if the election were held today, they’d vote for Sullivan. In this poll at least, he’s beating Treadwell by 9 points and Miller by 17 points.
The numbers to pay close attention to: Among voters who consider themselves “very conservative,” 41 percent support Sullivan, 25 percent support Miller, and 21 percent support Treadwell. These are the voters most likely to actually vote.
According to the poll, Sullivan has a lower favorability rating than does Treadwell. Forty-one percent of Alaska Republicans rated Sullivan favorably while 28 percent had an unfavorable view of him. Forty four percent of those polled had a favorable view of Treadwell while only 16 percent viewed him unfavorably. Likely some of this has to do with the negative ads Begich and his super-PAC have released about Sullivan. They’ve largely left Treadwell alone.
The poll showed that GOP voters have a generally negative view of Miller. Twenty-four percent held a favorable opinion of him while 52 percent had a negative view of him.
A recent poll by Anchorage-based Dittman Research surveyed 500 likely GOP primary voters May 27 – 29. It showed Mead Treadwell with 35 percent of the vote, Dan Sullivan with 37 percent, and Joe Miller with 12 percent. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.
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