I’ve been suspicious in the past of the Democratic polling firm PPP. One, they robo-call. Secondly, in the past, they have way over sampled Democrats and under-sampled young people. That said, their sampling has improved, and some of the numbers in a wide ranging poll that PPP released today on Alaska is generally in keeping with at least one other recently released poll, even if they did poll a candidate who dropped out of the race. Read on.
Here’s some highlights from the poll on the governor’s race:
- Gov. Sean Parnell:
4442 percent approve of the job he’s doing while4144 percent disapprove. By comparison, in a poll done in March by local firm Dittman Research, 54 percent of Alaskans said that the governor was doing a good job, and 41 percent said the governor wasn’t doing a good job. - In the general election, Parnell wins 37 percent to Democratic challenger Byron Mallott’s 27 percent and independent candidate Bill Walker’s 17 percent. 15 percent of Alaskans remain decided.
Here’s some highlights from the poll on the Senate race:
- Among 313 Republican primary voters surveyed, Dan Sullivan has a 14 point lead over Mead Treadwell: 40 percent for Sullivan and 26 percent for Treadwell. Joe Miller, the other challenger, is falling in the polls with only 14 percent of GOP primary voters saying that they’d vote for him in August. These numbers are generally consistent with a poll paid for by Sullivan that was released earlier this month.
Other findings:
- In the lieutenant governor’s GOP primary race, Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan would beat state Sen. Lesil McGuire 53 to 27 percent, with 21 percent undecided.
- Among the general voting public, Sarah Palin’s favorability rating is 36 percent. Her unfavorable is 56 percent.
- U.S. Rep. Don Young is surprisingly the most popular politician up for reelection in Alaska this year. 46 percent of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 39 percent who disapprove.
- However, as evidenced to how much PPP knows about Alaska politics, it polled Matt Moore against Young. As expected, Young is walloping Moore, 50 percent to 22 percent. The problem? Moore isn’t even running for Congress. He dropped out to run for state House. The new darling of the Democratic Party, Forrest Dunbar, is running against Young. But he wasn’t included.
Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com
Claire – the 2012 election results are available online. There were only 3,931 votes cast for the two candidates. Mr. Landfield received 1,728 and Senator McGuire received 2,203. That’s a difference of 475 votes.
These poll results sampled 582 registered voters, 313 of whom are registered republicans and 80% of those sampled identified themselves as white. As a republican supporter of the mayor these facts may encourage you but this is a statewide election and there’s a lot of time left before the polls. Personally, I hope all the candidates stay in and fight it out to the very end as the Lt. Gov race is shaping up to be the most entertaining.
It’s time for Lesil to just DROP OUT already. She won her last state senate election by only 200 votes against Jeff Landfield, a guy with little recognition. Now she’s running against the mayor of the largest city? She’ll lose this one no doubt. Really, she should just save what little reputation she has left, take the money that she hasn’t spent at Optima PR and donate it to charity.
Now Parnell’s numbers are falling. He is like a scuba diver who remained under for too long and has run out of air. Will Parnell make it to the surface before November?
The next Governor is going to have to face the state fiscal crisis head-on because of declining oil production over time with subsequent declining revenues,with only a very distant hope of a future gas line project. We will need a Governor who is honest enough to parse the impact fairly not one who governs by the quid pro quo.
Alaskans are starting to learn about Parnell with his spending to the point of deficits, promises of projects that never seem to materialize, his damnation of the feds with one hand while holding out the other for federal funds and assistance, violation of the Constitution by creating state jobs for sitting legislators, allowing the now closing North Pole refinery sulfolane spill to remain unmitigated during his entire term in office, stacking state boards with those whose objectivity is certainly suspect and the National Guard sex abuse scandal which festered for years as Parnell and his last two appointed Attorney Generals refused to act..
Parnell cannot run for reelection if he wins in November. Just imagine what Parnell as a lame duck Governor will do to us when he has absolutely no obligations to current or future generations of Alaskans.. We can do better…….
I was also included in the poll, my numbers went up from 3% to 4%. At this rate, we are on track for establishing the newest political party in Alaska, the Alaska Constitution Party!
If I were Begich, I’d keep “slamming Dan”. It’s been a good move for him to build the moment for Dan Sullivan – who, before Begich attacked him, was nothing. At least this way, when more of the tidbits I’ve been hearing about Dan come out – with the power of the National Democrats behind them – Begich will go back to office guaranteed.
Joe will run – Marijuana will help (only slightly) – Minimum wage (ehh) – Pebble (It’s basicallly over). As a Republican, I’ve come to the conclusion that we have only one chance to take back the seat from Begich. We must launch a write in campaign for ‘Stubs’ the cat for the U.S. Senate seat. At least this way, the stoners & the youth will be sucked away from Begich. This is our only path to victory which is why I’m no longer advocating for Joe Miller, but instead I would urge all of you to join me as we launch the true underdog in this race – Stubs for U.S. Senate!!!
Not only that. But if we put stubs on the ballot, it would get rid of all the outside influence. Imagine the consultants in D.C.
“Sir, the Alaskans have officially put Stubs in for a write-in Candidacy and he’s polling at 8 points according to PPP”.
“Alright! That’s it! I’m done with this state, I can’t deal with it – I don’t care anymore about this, this place is a joke”, – Everyone else
Polling data seems so much more less available than years past. Not sure why there aren’t more polls available. With the increased campaign spending, you would think more polls would be out there. Enjoyed the post.
Amanda, you are correct that PPP leaves something overall that leaves you wondering about the quality of the firm’s surveys and results. Having said this, they are often times, sometimes in the realm of other polls’ margin of error. Some interesting take aways assuuming the poll is reliable : 1) Governor Parnell’s numbers appear to be softening, 2) Mayor Dan Sullivan appears well on his way to being elected to run with Parnell on the Republican ticket, 3) DNR Dan Sullivan’s campaign appears to be strengthening and has developed a healthy and seemingly insurmountable lead in the GOP primary, and 4) neither Mallott nor Walker are getting much traction.
Much of this information tracks the Sullivan poll released last week at the Republican State Convention in Juneau.
Unless there is a big event or surprise, the Republican primary for statewide offices won’t be real excitinhg.
My GOP predictions : Governor – Parnell; Lite Governor – (Mayor) Sullivan; US Senate – (DNR) Sullivan; Congress – Young.
Now how hard was that?