The latest data from the highly suspect New York Times/CBS/YouGov “opt in” online poll is in. It shows that Republicans have an edge in taking the Senate in the midterms. That’s not surprising. The last data from this survey showed similar results, as do other “good” polls. What has shifted is the numbers coming out of Alaska. When the last data was crunched pre-primary, Sen. Mark Begich had a 12-point lead over GOP challenger Dan Sullivan. In this set of numbers, Sullivan leads Begich by 6 points.
No doubt the numbers will be used by Sullivan’s supporters for fundraising purposes and to bolster his campaign. However, we should all approach the findings with caution. The methodology used by the poll is highly controversial because it uses “opt-in” respondents, basically meaning that people had to go to them online to get surveyed. Such survey methods fly in the face of what has been considered scientifically sound polling. Until this election cycle, the New York Times itself refused to publish such polls.
And then there’s the Alaska problem. Apparently, it has been difficult for the New York Times to find people in Alaska who want to participate:
Alaska, however, is a state where there are reasons to have reservations about the quality of the data. The panel had less than 500 respondents, despite recruitment efforts. There should be fairly low confidence in the exact finding.
Which begs the question as to why they’re publishing it at all.
My household was flooded with “surveys” regarding Alaska’s U.S. Senate Race. A number of these were push polls that could leave people reading the results of your responses with the assumption that you supported Sullivan. I would not complete any of those polls since they were so one-directional.
The pre-primary predictions for Republicans were against Mark, not against one another. We know Mead lost the primary, but that doesn’t mean that he didn’t stand the best chance taking down Mark in a general.
People are sick of Begich, his lies, his megative ads and the shennanigans of the Democratiic party that he is orchestrating. While I’m not is a position to confirm this poll one way or the other, it feels right.
I am a Sullivan supporter and I believe he can win. However, I have said it before and I will say it again, Opt-in polling is not an accurate measurement. It was evident during the primary when Treadwell’s campaign touted these polls as showing Treadwell in the lead. We all know how that turned out. I hope that this number is factual, but until I see a more credible poll I will wait before touting any kind of lead.