University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato has solid record of predicting races across the country. His most recent map of Senate races in his Crystal Ball has all in various shades of blue, red and mango. Three of them, however —  Alaska, North Carolina and Louisiana are yellow — are yellow, indicating “toss-ups.”

It’s likely the reason that the pro-Begich super-PAC, Put Alaska First, has recently bought as much as $4.6 million worth of advertising in Alaska in a single buy. It’s a huge amount of money for the state. But it’s also a must-win for Dems, and it’s a relatively cheap one to boot, even though TV stations are charging as much as 10 times more than they did last election cycle.