Tag Archives: mark begich

Hill reports Begich super-PAC off to ‘slow start’

The Hill is reporting that the new pro-Mark Begich super-PAC is off to a “slow start.” The Put Alaska First Political Action Committee, run by Anchorage lobbyist Jim Lottsfeldt, received a warning letter from the Federal Elections Commission because it had failed to report how much money it had raised through July 1.

“The failure to timely file a complete report may result in civil money penalties, an audit or legal enforcement action,” the letter says and warns of penalties which begin the day the report is due.

Lottsfeldt told The Hill that he didn’t know about the rules and assumed that because the group had yet to raise any money, it didn’t need to file a report.

When the super-PAC was announced, the goal was to raise between $3 to $5 million. Lottsfeldt seems less than certain about that number, however. When asked if that was still the goal, he said, “I guess so,” and told the newspaper that he was “confident” that he would raise money, but because he was new to the super-PAC world, “(h)ow it all gets quantified in the end is a little bit of a mystery to me”

It probably need not be emphasized, but this may well be one of the most significant races in Alaska’s political history.The makeup of the U.S. Senate might very well rest in the state’s hands. Donors are going to be looking for a good investment. And whoever is running one of the many super-PACs that will likely spring up to support any of the candidates, probably should keep it to him or herself if that the process is a mystery.

Correction: The original story said that Jim Lottsfeldt was a democratic lobbyist. He’s in fact non-partisan.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Politicking and fishing at the Kenai River Classic

The 20th anniversary of the Kenai River Classic, the fishing event to the political stars made famous during Sen. Ted Steven’s reign, was held this week. Much about the event has changed. These days, Stevens has bigger, celestial fish to fry. Veco’s name is no longer plastered about. Back in the day, the river was choked with kings and the little kings caught were larger than the biggest slivers caught today.

And the legion of East Coast political stars and titans of industry who wanted to brush shoulders with those politicians are now, for the most part, spending dog days with dogs, perhaps. But the event still draws a crowd.

Nearly 400 people attended the annual auction and banquet at Soldotna Sports Center Tuesday evening, and Alaska politicians showed. U.S. Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Mark Begich were on hand. A handful of legislators, including Reps. Bill Stoltze, Craig Johnson, and Sen. Lesil McGuire and Kevin Meyer cast their lines. (Rep. Wes Keller netted third place in the Kenai River Classic Cup with a 12.5 pound silver. First place went to Omar Garcia of South Texas Energy and Economic Roundtable for a 13.1-pound silver.)

Bureaucrats, most of whom are involved with fishing issues, showed, as they probably should. But that the Department of Health and Human Services Commissioner Bill Streur showed was a little puzzling to some, and plain classic to others who are more cynical about the perks of being a government employee. Indeed, DHSS has been under fire lately, and Streur has been AWOL during legislative hearings where thorny issues like health care programs, federal sequestration, and the department’s more than $2.6 billion budget have been discussed.

It also took Streur away from the only full day of a two day state Health Care Commission meeting. Word is that when he did show up at the health care meeting, he didn’t give any presentations about the health benefits of eating wild salmon. He did, however, tell a fish story or two.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Are PPP’s Alaska polls pure propaganda?

The Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling, also known as PPP, is once again proving that it values publicity above all else. And in Alaska right now, the interest is the looming race against U.S. Sen. Mark Begich. Throw in an off-the-cuff statement that Sarah Palin made about considering running for Senate, and you’ve got the makings for some screaming headlines, no matter that the numbers buried under the headlines are suspect, at best.

A recent poll that the firm conducted via robo calling shows support for Begich’s job performance at about 42 percent. That might make it sound that Begich is in a little bit of trouble. However, Alaska-based pollster Marc Hellenthal, who actually knows the state and uses real-live people to do his polling, has Begich’s approval rate at about 60 percent in a recent poll.

Hellenthal’s got some other numbers which contradict PPP’s poll, but before we get into all of that, let’s get the elephant out of the room: Palin might have considered running for Senate, in the same way that I have considered taking belly dancing classes. I’m not going to take belly dancing classes. Palin is not going to run for Senate. She would lose.

According to PPP, most Alaskans want Palin to run. That might be true, in the way that dogs think they want that car that they’re chasing. But from the headlines the poll has generated, you would think that Palin is still popular in Alaska. Palin is not popular in Alaska.

In fairness, PPP’s numbers show that she’s got a high disapproval rating here. And the firm can be forgiven for not understanding the intricacies of Alaska’s politics, nor is it responsible for a lazy media. What isn’t forgivable is that the group’s polling methodology stinks. In this particular poll, Democrats are way over represented, as are women and older people. Law dictates that pollsters aren’t allowed to robo-call cell phones, so there goes about 50 percent of the population that use them all the time or most of the time. And those are just a few of the problems with using machines to do the work that humans should.

Alaska, as uber poll cruncher Nate Silver points out, “is perhaps the most difficult state in the country to poll. Its residents are in a strange time zone and keep strange schedules; it has very high rates of cellphone usage; it has highly unusual demographics.” (It should be noted here that Silver himself has used Alaska PPP polls and therefore gotten Alaska horribly wrong in the past).

Couple Alaska’s idiosyncrasies with PPP’s sloppy work, and you might as well throw numbers on a wall.

PPP isn’t a stranger to using such suspect methodology. It conducted an absurd poll in May that showed that Sen. Mark Begich actually lost support in Alaska as a result of voting against Obama’s gun control bill. In that poll, Democrats were over represented by a whopping 9 percent, women were over-represented by 12 percent, and the firm just couldn’t figure out the nonpartisan/Alaska Independent Party thing.

They got it a little better on this one. But the sampling error is still way off. Dems in this poll are over represented by six percent, women by 10 percent, and the ages are all screwy. The numbers show it.

Hellethall’s poll was conducted for a private citizen who is not involved in any of the races.

Here’s a few examples of how Hellenthal’s poll numbers compare with PPP’s:

Begich has 60 percent approval and 24 percent disapproval rating. Prior to the gun control vote, Hellenthal had Begich at a 53 percent positive and 35 percent negative. In other words, Begich’s vote helped him enormously, which is in direct contradiction to what PPP reported.
Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell has a 30 percent positive approval rating, a 16 percent negative rating, 30 percent had never heard of him, and the remaining are neutral about him. PPP reported a 29 percent unfavorable rating.
As for unannounced Senate candidate (DNR Commissioner) Dan Sullivan: PPP has his negatives at 28 percent, which is absurdly high for a commissioner. Hellenthal didn’t poll him, but the only thing that could figure is that people are confusing Commish Sullivan with Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan.
Gov. Sean Parnell’s approval rating is 57percent positive and 26 percent negative.PPP has those numbers at 44 percent and 42 percent respectively.
Both Hellenthal’s poll and PPP’s poll show that Democratic Sens. Bill Wielechowski and Hollis French would have a way to go in name recognition if either chooses to run for governor.
Rep. Don Young’s wetback comment didn’t seem to hurt him much. He’s got a 56 percent positive and 28 percent negative approval rating. PPP has Young at 47 percent approval 43 percent disapproval rating.

PPP didn’t poll on her, but another interesting finding from Hellenthal is Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s numbers. According to Hellenthal, she is the most liked politician in the state with a whopping 69-24 approval/disapproval rating. This number might just quell the squirrels who are chirping that Murkowski is so unpopular that she’s not going to run again in 2016.

Another pollster in Alaska, Matt Larkin, who has taken over for long-time Republican pollster Dave Dittman, declined to take on the PPP poll, saying that he didn’t want to get into the back and forth of who was a better pollster. He did say that generally bad polls “undermine the integrity of the whole field.”

He also reminded me how wrong PPP got the 2010 Senate race. In the last poll PPP conducted before the vote, it had Scott McAdams tied with Lisa Murkowski. It showed that Miller would take it by 7 points. On election night, Murkowski had 40 percent of the vote. Miller got about 35 percent and McAdams 23 percent.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Commissioner Dan Sullivan is now again Lt. Colonel Sullivan

Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan is now, once again, Lt. Colonel Sullivan. Sullivan, who is in the Marine Corps Reserves, is being called to active duty on Sunday. Sources say that he’ll be heading for Afghanistan to work on an anti-terrorism mission.

Deputy Commissioner Joe Balash is expected to be named acting commissioner during his deployment. It’s been speculated that upon his return, Sullivan will announce that he’s running for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat incumbent Mark Begich.

In a state where the number of veterans per capita ranks as one of the highest in the nation, Sullivan’s military service and deployment is thought by many political observers to be a strong political asset should he become a candidate.

Sullivan has served in the Marine Corps since 1993 on active duty and in the reserves as an infantry and reconnaissance officer.

He’s been recalled to active duty in both 2006 and 2009.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Republican strategist eyes Alaska

Texas Republican strategist Chris Turner, with Stampede Consulting, has been in and out of town now for a few months. This time, however, he’s been in Alaska for nearly a week. With his wife and 11-year-old son, he’s here, ostensibly, for a vacation. And he has been on the usual vacation tour circuit: spotting bears in Denali, whales in Seward, etc, etc. . .

But any Republican strategist worth his spit would see a vacation in Alaska right now as more than just an opportunity to spot wildlife, as evidenced by the fact that he showed up at Speaker of the House John Boehner’s Anchorage fundraiser on Tuesday evening wearing a suit.

(The event was officially off the record, but I can report that Boehner lived up to his red wine drinking, cigarette smoking, weeping reputation. He actually wept during a speech.)

The U.S. Senate race is looming. The balance of power in the chamber may very well rest on how Alaskans vote. The technologically savvy, incredibly effective army of Obama Democrats will be setting up in force in the next year to ensure Sen. Mark Begich’s reelection. And the Republicans are not going to give up without a vicious fight.

“Alaska will be ground zero,” Turner said. Big money is coming to the state in a big way on both sides of the aisle. In addition to the Senate race, if the oil tax repeal makes it on the ballot, oil money will gush. If marijuana makes it, pot money will cloud the airwaves. “Alaskans have no idea what’s coming at them,” Turner said.

Then, depending on how the never-ending process known as redistricting is complete, there’s all those state candidates.

Turner doesn’t know who, or if, he’ll be working for. So far, former candidate Joe Miller and Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell have announced they’ll take on Begich, DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan is said to have been considering a run, but has recently flat out denied this.

What Turner does know, he said over lunch on Tuesday afternoon, is that whoever it is, he or she needs to have as powerful a ground game as the Democrats have, a ground game that will both challenge Begich on pressing the flesh and on the technological front.

The Dems have gained the ground-game advantage largely because of Obama’s team, which won in 2008 by organizing neighbor-to-neighbor contact, along with the most advanced get out the vote computer applications. That effort has continued to evolve and was deployed to breathtaking efficiency in 2012.

Begich will have all those tools at his disposal, tools that the Republicans have been dismal at deploying.

Team Romney was supposed to change that. His team promised that they had “the Republican Party’s newest, unprecedented and most technologically advanced plan to win the 2012 presidential election.”

That plan, dubbed “Project Orca,” turned into a nightmare. Everything about the system failed. Hundreds of thousands of campaign volunteers were foot-stomping frustrated, and that was before the system crashed on Election Day, leaving senior staff in Boston to tally votes on a calculator.

Turner, who worked on other presidential campaigns but sat out Romney’s, claims that he’s got the ground game answer. He’s coy about the specifics, and so is his decidedly unsophisticated website. But out of 100 races that he was involved with in the last election cycle, he claims to have won 92. (It should be noted that not all of the candidates were the most savory.)

If there’s a good candidate, Turner thinks he can help win the Senate seat for the Republicans.

That’s a big if, however. The only declared or potential candidate so far who has shown even a hint of the kind of tenacity that Begich has is, of all people, Joe Miller. And if Miller wins the Republican primary, Republicans across the land will cry big Boehner tears.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

The politics of PRISM and fear

You know your life has taken a strange turn when you find yourself searching for a statesman among our federal delegation only to increasingly find yourself looking U.S. Rep. Don Young in the eye.

You also know your life has taken a strange turn when you, a consistent critic of federal investigative powers and the judicial branch, finds herself defending the government’s attempt to protect its citizens.

I’m referring to the National Security Agency’s phone surveillance program, which has caused near mass hysteria across the country, hysteria that both of Alaska’s U.S. senators have done nothing to quell and in fact appear to be exacerbating for political gain.

By now, most have heard of the recently exposed program dubbed PRISM in which the government is collecting huge amounts of data from phone records in an attempt to find patterns in order to thwart terrorism attacks. It appears that PRISM was voted on in the 2008 reauthorization of the Patriot Act, which Sen. Lisa Murkowski voted for.

The situation is constantly evolving, but this is what we know now: the government program pertains only to the date, length, and phone numbers involved in each call. Sen. Mark Begich told millions of Americans on Fox News that the program allows the government to tap the phones of millions of Americans.

That’s not true. The program does not give the government carte blanche to listen into our calls.

Let me repeat this because our senators aren’t doing so: The program does not allow the government to listen into the phone calls or even gather information about the phone number or who it belongs to. If the government then finds a troublesome pattern in the phone calls and wants to find out what is being said, it then requests a warrant from the FISA court, a court established in 1978 to authorize government wiretaps in foreign intelligence investigations.

As others have pointed out, there are plenty of reasons to be distrustful of governmental overreach. Not long ago, Alaskans got a front-row seat to what happens when the government wants you and will stop at nothing to get you. And the late Sen. Ted Stevens was just one high profile example of that overreach which many more are victim to. Our prisons are full of low level drug dealers who are spending decades behind bars because some overzealous prosecutor wants a win on his record. Idealistic environmentalists are being charged as terrorists and spending much of their lives in prison under terrorism laws for nothing more than property damage. And our executive branch is ordering the firing of missiles at U.S. citizens and killing them without any legal proceedings.

In comparison, from what we know about the program, PRISM seems downright benign.

According to Michael Hayden, the former head of NSA under President George Bush, this is how the program works:

“So, you roll up something in Waziristan. You get a cell phone. It’s the first time you’ve ever had that cell phone number. You know it’s related to terrorism because of the pocket litter you’ve gotten in that operation…you simply ask that database, hey, any of you phone numbers in there ever talked to this phone number in Waziristan?”

In other words, someone from a terrorism network in Waziristan is calling, say, me. And the NSA wants to know if I’ve been calling any other numbers that might be connected to that terrorism network. This database of information allows it to do that. It could, perhaps go to the FISA court with a warrant to listen to future calls, but it wouldn’t have had the ability to look retroactively at calls that I might have made.

Google is able to discern that last week I was coveting lululemon’s yoga pants. Yahoo knows that two days ago (heaven help me) I clicked on a story about Bristol Palin’s imminent appearance on a reality show. But the government shouldn’t know that last week I got a call from a terrorism network in Waziristan and then the month before, called someone who was connected to the same network in Waziristan who is visiting his cousin in California?

In fact, I would be appalled if I found out that the government had the ability to track such calls and didn’t do so to thwart a terrorism attack. And so would much of the rest of the country if that Waziristan cousin lobbed a bomb in California with my assistance.

Murkowski has sent out press releases criticizing the program. “Alaskans believe the government has no business snooping around our property, our library books, our phone calls or e-mails — and that our privacy rights are guaranteed by the Constitution,” she wrote. “Our investment in protecting American lives and liberties simultaneously is not a blank check.”

She goes on to defend her rather mixed record in protecting privacy.

Though it’s true that she has voted for and against various amendments and against various Patriot Act reauthorization bills, it’s also true that she voted for the original Patriot Act and also the bill in 2008 that allowed this program.

Begich’s hands are cleaner on this. He has consistently voted against the Patriot Act, has spoken loudly about privacy and is cosponsor of what seems to be a much needed bill that would make the FISA courts more transparent. However, he, like Murkowski, is doing little to educate the public on the program and what it does and doesn’t do. Instead, both seem intent on fomenting fear for political gain.

“Alaskans have a right to know why information about their personal communications is being monitored,” Begich said.

If there’s one thing that’s clear and that’s been stated repeatedly it is that the information is being used to stop people from harming us. Begich knows this. So does Murkowski. And they both know how the program works.

Back to Young the statesman. He, like Begich, has been consistent in his opposition to the Patriot Act. However, he has so far declined to make that an issue, nor to join with the rest of the crew in spreading fear.

Though not his usual modus operandi, as of this writing Young has stayed silent on the matter. His spokesperson said that he’s waiting to gather more information before he speaks on it.

Young’s waiting to gather information so he actually knows what he’s talking about and perhaps will be able to do what he was elected to do: tell the public the truth, instead of beating the drums of demagoguery

Contact Amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

Model for Mark Begich and gun control vote

Sen. Mark Pryor, Democrat from Arkansas, is responding to an ad from Mayors Against Illegal Guns, the group founded by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, which is criticizing Pryor’s gun control vote. Pryor was one of four U.S. senators to buck the Dems and vote against gun control. Bloomberg’s group reportedly has spent $350,000 on the ad

In his counter, Pryor takes on Bloomberg, which is likely a winning strategy in Arkansas as it would be in Alaska. Watch here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5JDuTkHt20

Sen. Mark Begich also voted against gun control, and Bloomberg’s mayors are also eyeing Begich’s vote. I haven’t seen any Bloomberg commercials yet, but they are said to becoming and Begich is likely salivating over notion. He’s already responding with radio ads, using his vote on gun control as a positive. Which, despite a ridiculously flawed PPP poll, it will likely be.

PPP also came out with a poll on the Arkansas race. It describes its findings: “Mark Pryor’s chances for reelection next year would be enhanced if he supported a background check bill when it comes back up in the Senate.”

I don’t know if the Arkansas poll was as flawed as the poll in Alaska. If it is, then Pryor’s team should just ignore it. The PPP poll done on gun control in Alaska showed that only 35 percent of Alaskans opposed background checks, a notion that’s so absurd that I dug a little deeper into the poll. Among the poll’s many flaws:

Gender: Alaska is roughly 50 percent male to female, but the firm sampled 56 percent women to 44 percent men.
Party affiliation: Of the total registered voters in Alaska, only 14 percent are registered Democrats. About 27 percent are registered Republicans. The sample size that PPP used was 25 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans.
“Independents/other.” About 53 percent of registered voters are registered “undeclared,” and “nonpartisan.” Then there’s the Alaska Independence Party, which is a whole other breed of people, and the Libertarians. The two of them make up about 6 percent of voters. The PPP’s sample lumps them all together, calls them “Independent/other,” and only uses a 45 percent sample size.

As I wrote before, I’d chalk that poll up, as I have other PPP polls, to the kind of crackpot tool that you find on both sides of the political spectrum intent on spreading propaganda and false narratives if it weren’t for the fact that the media dutifully reports on the polls.

There’s a healthy debate to have over Begich’s gun control vote. But it won’t happen through distortions and fabrications.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com.

The ‘quiet governor’ creates noise

Early evening Friday announcements are normally reserved for bad news and document dumps. So, that Gov. Sean Parnell would announce his future intentions on a Friday after 5 p.m. struck many, including this writer, as flatfooted. Then again, Parnell’s not known for his ability to generate excitement. In fact Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell once called him a “quiet governor” in front of a group of businessmen and officials from all across the globe visiting Alaska to discuss opportunities in the Arctic. The president of Iceland was there. Parnell was somewhere else being quiet.

But sometimes—well at least once anyway—he gets it right. In the weeks leading up to Parnell’s announcement, nearly all of Alaska’s political establishment had assumed that he would forgo a run for U.S. Senate against Sen. Mark Begich and instead stay the course. But in the hours leading up to Parnell’s 5:50 p.m. announcement in Fairbanks, the political trap lines were buzzing. Had everyone been wrong? In the past weeks, had Parnell been able to muster the political courage to take Begich on?

Why else would he choose to make an announcement at an event—the Alaska Republican Women’s Convention– where both Rep. Don Young and Sen. Lisa Murkowski were in attendance?

Even those who should have known were second guessing their assumptions. The backbone of Alaska’s Republican Party was in Fairbanks waiting to hear his plans. Party stalwarts like don’t-mess-with-Paulette Simpson from Juneau was there. Rhonda Boyles from Fairbanks and newly elected Rep. Lynn Gattis from Wasilla, were there. (Everyone knows that you shouldn’t mess with them either.) Sen. President Charlie Huggins and House Speaker Mike Chenault showed. The room was packed. Everyone waited and whispered.

So, an announcement that might have been as exciting as waiting for water to boil-turned into an event. It might just be the most exciting one of the governor’s race.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

North Pole refining Koch brothers likely to be involved in upcoming Alaska Senate race

The New York Times reports that the thumping conservatives — particularly tea party conservatives — have taken in the past few years isn’t scaring off the mega donating Koch brothers. The pair, along with their long list of advocacy groups, foundations and tangled knots of libertarian whatnots plan to be out in full force come the next election cycle.

According to the NYTs:

“(T)he brothers want their network to play a bigger role in cultivating and promoting Republican candidates who hew to their vision of conservatism, emphasizing smaller government and deregulation more than immigration and social issues. They are also seeking closer control over groups within their network, purging or downgrading those that did not deliver last year and expanding financing for those that performed well.”

The NYTs said that the pair hasn’t decided whether or not it will be involved in primaries. But it’s hard to see them resisting, considering that the primaries are where the battles for the Republican soul are fought, battles that are the raison d’être for the brothers.

What does this mean for Alaska? For one, the upcoming race against U.S. Sen. Mark Begich is expected to be one of the hottest in the country. And the Republican primary will be especially smoking. Rabid conservative Joe Miller and newly invented conservative stalwart Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell have both said that they’re all but in. And then there’s DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is looking increasingly like the dark horse candidate.

All of this is perfect Koch brother fodder, and all of this will happen on the heels of a contract for royalty oil that the state approved with Koch brother owned Flint Hill Resources, which has a refinery in North Pole, Alaska.

Under the terms of the contract, the state will deliver a maximum of 30,000 barrels a day of its royalty oil to Flint HIlls for five years, beginning next year. The contract is worth an estimated $3.5 billion to $5.9 in revenue for the state and billions for the Koch brothers.

In addition to being one of the state’s largest refineries, Flint Hills is one of the Alaska Railroad Corporation’s largest customers. They also own a tank farm in the Port of Anchorage area by Ship Creek. And they hope to own a majority of the U.S. Senate, including a new Republican senator from Alaska.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com