A new PPP poll shows that GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has a six percentage point lead against Mead Treadwell in the Republican primary and a 15 percent lead over the other lead candidate, Joe Miller. However, 14 percent of voters in that poll are still undecided.
The poll interviewed 337 Alaskans July 31 through Aug. 3 who said they were going to vote in the Republican primary. PPP, which normally works for Democrats and Democratic causes, uses robocalls, which is a suspicious polling method. Too, PPP is not above using its polls to swing particular issues. That said, the numbers are consistent with a newly released poll done by Oregon-based Moore Information which showed Sullivan up eight points, with 22 percent of voters still undecided. Continue reading →
Sen. Mark Pryor, Democrat from Arkansas, is responding to an ad from Mayors Against Illegal Guns, the group founded by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, which is criticizing Pryor’s gun control vote. Pryor was one of four U.S. senators to buck the Dems and vote against gun control. Bloomberg’s group reportedly has spent $350,000 on the ad
In his counter, Pryor takes on Bloomberg, which is likely a winning strategy in Arkansas as it would be in Alaska. Watch here:
Sen. Mark Begich also voted against gun control, and Bloomberg’s mayors are also eyeing Begich’s vote. I haven’t seen any Bloomberg commercials yet, but they are said to becoming and Begich is likely salivating over notion. He’s already responding with radio ads, using his vote on gun control as a positive. Which, despite a ridiculously flawed PPP poll, it will likely be.
PPP also came out with a poll on the Arkansas race. It describes its findings: “Mark Pryor’s chances for reelection next year would be enhanced if he supported a background check bill when it comes back up in the Senate.”
I don’t know if the Arkansas poll was as flawed as the poll in Alaska. If it is, then Pryor’s team should just ignore it. The PPP poll done on gun control in Alaska showed that only 35 percent of Alaskans opposed background checks, a notion that’s so absurd that I dug a little deeper into the poll. Among the poll’s many flaws:
Gender: Alaska is roughly 50 percent male to female, but the firm sampled 56 percent women to 44 percent men.
Party affiliation: Of the total registered voters in Alaska, only 14 percent are registered Democrats. About 27 percent are registered Republicans. The sample size that PPP used was 25 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans.
“Independents/other.” About 53 percent of registered voters are registered “undeclared,” and “nonpartisan.” Then there’s the Alaska Independence Party, which is a whole other breed of people, and the Libertarians. The two of them make up about 6 percent of voters. The PPP’s sample lumps them all together, calls them “Independent/other,” and only uses a 45 percent sample size.
As I wrote before, I’d chalk that poll up, as I have other PPP polls, to the kind of crackpot tool that you find on both sides of the political spectrum intent on spreading propaganda and false narratives if it weren’t for the fact that the media dutifully reports on the polls.
There’s a healthy debate to have over Begich’s gun control vote. But it won’t happen through distortions and fabrications.