New polls show tightening in GOP Senate primary

A new PPP poll shows that GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has a six percentage point lead against Mead Treadwell in the Republican primary and a 15 percent lead over the other lead candidate, Joe Miller. However, 14 percent of voters in that poll are still undecided.

The poll interviewed 337 Alaskans July 31 through Aug. 3 who said they were going to vote in the Republican primary. PPP, which normally works for Democrats and Democratic causes, uses robocalls, which is a suspicious polling method. Too, PPP is not above using its polls to swing particular issues. That said, the numbers are consistent with a newly released poll done by Oregon-based Moore Information which showed Sullivan up eight points, with 22 percent of voters still undecided. Although Moore does polling for Sullivan, that poll wasn’t paid for by his campaign or by a group or a super-PAC involved in the Senate race. Moore live-interviewed 375 likely Republican primary voters between July 29-31. The margin of error is about 5.5 percent plus or minus.

Here’s the Moore numbers:

  • Dan Sullivan – 35%
  • Mead Treadwell – 27%
  • Joe Miller – 16%

At the end of April, Sullivan was up 12 percentage points in a poll done by the same pollster.

Here are the PPP top-line numbers:

  • Joe Miller– 20%
  • Dan Sullivan — 35%
  • Mead Treadwell — 29%

PPP also asked about the candidates favorability ratings:

Q1 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Dan Sullivan?

Favorable  — 57%

Unfavorable — 25%

Not sure — 18%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Mead Treadwell?

Favorable — 58%

Unfavorable — 20%

Not sure — 22%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Joe Miller?

Favorable — 38%

Unfavorable —  47%

Not sure — 15%

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8 thoughts on “New polls show tightening in GOP Senate primary

  1. Derp

    Come on Amanda- that was far from the most interesting results in the poll. No on 1 is still tied with Yes. Bill Walker is within 1 point of Parnell, if Mallott drops out. Bill Walker is probably beating Parnell if Mallott joins him. Marijuana is failing hard.

  2. John Smith

    Mead hasn’t had to spend any money. Begich and the Democrat Super PACs have done his job for him. If anything, having a lead when Dan has been battling 8 months of negative attacks is pretty impressive in my opinion.

  3. Ted

    Nice Sullivan spin by Mark A….what these surveys show is that Treadwell being outspent by several million can still win this race…Sullivan’s support is a mile wide and inch thick….he has a great resume, beautiful family but lacks Alaskan roots and it shows no matter what the Begich negatives being thrown are….Sullivan so desperate & worries now that he throws negative campaign against Treadwell in recent two hit mailers and doesn’t go after Begich….that kind of campaigning helps Begich in the general. Republicans should not attack each other in such a mean spirited way as those two recent Sullivan mailers show…

  4. Mark A.

    It won’t be long until we’ll have the numbers that matter – – on election day. Meanwhile, it is interesting to note the various polls and what they show. To me, the most interesting variable is the fact that Sullivan’s negative, after being bombarded to the tune of $3 – $4 million, is only a few points higher than Treadwell’s. The way I read this is that Sullivan’s character can withstand the attacks and that Treadwell carries a high negative without being bombarded. I think this speaks legions about the quality of candidates we have to choose from and why Begich so desperately wants to run against Treadwell or Miller.
    It is not unexpected that the numbers will tighten as we get closer to the primary; however, to suggest that Treadwell is surging is laughable at best. For a statewide office holder, like Treadwell, his showing in the polls, fundraising and organizational standing shouts failure. All this tells me is what I have believed for sometime now, Dan Sullivan is the ONLY candidate that can and will run a credible race against Begich.

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