Updated: A new poll by the Maryland-based firm Basswood Research shows that if the election were held today, U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan would beat Sen. Mark Begich by 5 points, 45-40 percent with 14.6 percent undecided. The poll interviewed 500 likely Alaska voters June 29-30. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.
The question was asked by Basswood as part of a larger poll for another candidate, who is not running for the U.S. Senate seat, and the topline numbers were released to me on the condition that I not name the paying candidate. It was a general election poll, and neither Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell nor Joe Miller were included.
Another word of caution: I don’t have the crosstabs and the makeup of the poll. So take from it what you will. Basswood, a Republican polling firm, has polled on Alaska races in the past. Recently, it’s polled for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and is one of the lead pollsters for the Club For Growth.
Update: A few of you have wanted to know how the question was worded. This is what was sent to me.
Question: Looking ahead, if the election for the United States Senate was held today and the candidates were (randomize), for whom would you vote?
Dan Sullivan 45.4%
Mark Begich 40.0%