New poll has Sullivan surging — leading Treadwell by 17 points, Miller by 25

Oregon based Moore Information, which is the pollster for U. S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, shows that Sullivan is surging in the final weeks of the primary season. The most recent poll by Moore was conducted Aug 4-5 of 500 likely Republican primary voters. It shows Sullivan getting 42 percent of the GOP primary vote, Treadwell getting 25 percent and Miller 17 percent. About 16 percent remain undecided.

It’s the biggest lead so far for Sullivan. In the past months, Moore has had Sullivan up anywhere from 8 to 12 points, with as many as 22 percent undecided. Other pollsters have Sullivan also leading, but by less than Moore.

According to Moore:

The remarkable part of the Sullivan surge is that he now holds significant double digit leads in almost all regions of the state, among younger men and younger women, among older men and older women.  He leads among Republicans by 23 points, among Non-Partisans by 8 points and among Undeclareds by 9 points. He holds solid, double digit leads with ‘very conservative’ voters and with ‘somewhat conservative’ voters and is even slightly ahead of Treadwell among ‘moderate/liberal’ voters.

In the memo written that accompanied the numbers, Moore attributes Sullivan’s surge to greater voter awareness. The memo says that by almost a 2:1 margin, the information that they’re receiving about Sullivan is making them more likely to vote for him.

Moore has a long history of polling for Alaska Republicans, including Ted Stevens and Lisa Murkowski.

Contact Amanda Coyne at


23 thoughts on “New poll has Sullivan surging — leading Treadwell by 17 points, Miller by 25

  1. Jeff

    Hey, you know his nom de guerre of “Afghan Dan”! As far as his Marine Corps time The guy is total poser and did about as much in his active duty time as he did at DNR (e.g., words. letters, political maneuvering, etc.). It’s obvious that based upon these credentials he is more than qualified to be a US Senator. Alaska is so lost If this guy is elected. Afghan Dan is just another old boy network choice.

  2. LysanderSpooner

    Here’s another recent one for the breathless Sullivan apologists who’d like us to think the poll Amanda reported on is the only one out there. It’s from an independent polling outfit in North Carolina, not paid for by any candidate:

    “Treadwell gaining on Sullivan, Begich leads GOP foes

    Public Policy Polling’s newest Alaska poll finds Mead Treadwell closing the gap in the Republican primary for Senate …”


  3. Lynn Willis

    How about a poll question asking Alaskans if they would support any of these Republican candidates if that candidate was to openly state before this primary that he would help to replace Murkowski with Parnell if Parnell decides to run against her (I understand it is “when” not “if”)? Next a follow up question asking how many Alaskans would prefer Parnell to resign upon announcing his candidacy rather than try to be Governor and a candidate for a federal office at the same time

  4. LysanderSpooner

    Just like a Sullivan supporter to go straight to ad hominem nonsense while scrupulously avoiding discussion of anything substantive. I think I would be shocked senseless if just one of you — if indeed there is more than one posting here — ever posted anything about why your guy is so good, instead of falling back on personally attacking other candidates and blog respondents who post opinions you don’t like.

  5. Rebecca Logan

    Ah – I see – Republican primary voters doesn’t mean they are Republican….. then it is a very intriguing poll!

  6. Rebecca Logan

    I wish they would do a poll like this and include anyone who can take a Republican ballot in the primary. That would be more meaningful.

  7. Huckleberry Pete

    People like Lysander Spooner are either very naïve, ill-informed, unwilling to face reality, or plain stupid. I’m not really happy with the results released by Moore Information; however, this firm is professional and reliable. They would never jeopardize their well-earned reputation for the benefit of a certain race. Lysander Spooner’s insinuation otherwise is ridiculous.
    Remember a poll is a snapshot of the moment and subject to change. It’s starting to look more and more that the “likely Republican primary voters” in Alaska are not going to be swayed by Mark Begich and Harry Reid. They are shaking in their boots, worried that they will have to face Sullivan in the general election.

  8. Milton Friedman

    Pay no attention to him. Just ridiculous temper tantrums from people who are finally realizing their candidate won’t win the primary.

  9. admin

    @Anony: Link to PPP poll inserted. (Don’t read anything into that except that it was late and I was tired and I forgot,) I also don’t see where the PPP poll shows Sullivan’s getting slaughtered with GOP primary women. But maybe I’m missing something? The general’s a different story, where he’s way behind Begich, but that’s not what this piece is about. And Treadwell and Sullivan are about the same with women in that PPP poll. The Moore poll says he’s surging. I don’t know what else to call it. Do you? If another poll done by a firm as solid as Moore showed Treadwell or Miller with the same numbers–regardless how paid for it–I’d write the same thing.

  10. Anonymous

    Amanda you write it up, and parrot the line about Sullivan “surging.” His whole campaign staff picks up the story and waves it around like a giddy circus. There is no link to the hard data that show Dan with an edge in women voters (which if you look at the PPP poll he’s getting slaughtered in).

    There just isn’t critical context to any of this. It’s just like “Moore’s a great AK pollster, blame him if it’s wrong.” When you write “Other pollsters have Sullivan also leading, but by less than Moore.” that should be a paragraph or two, not a sentence. Reference the other posts, put links in there, show the trajectory of polling… anything. Instead you just put that cursory blurb in there as if you were a living extension of Afghan Dan’s camp.

  11. John Smith

    Amanda has reported on every single poll that has come been released, regardless of which candidate was painted in a positive or negative light because of it. I think you are trying the “shoot the messenger” here. Perhaps you should be angry that your candidate is flawed or message the pollster and try your accusation of bias there. You are coming across as angry, bitter and uninformed.

    Amanda, thank you for continuing to report the news.

  12. admin

    @Lysander: If it’s way out of whack, Moore Information, which is a good polling firm, would have to wear it forever.

  13. LysanderSpooner

    What a surprise! One candidate’s personal poll has him way ahead. LOL. I’ll put my money on the more independent polls being closer to accurate. There’s no way this race gets decided by that kind of margin — or that Sullivan is a slam-dunk.

  14. StatDaddy

    Moore Information is a highly respected polling firm that has years of experience of polling in Alaska.
    A few thouights and observations: Despite Treadwell’s artificial claims of surging based on a few unscientific polls, his support hasn’t grown since entering the race. It;s arguable that his support has actually declined some. Miller’s numbers still appear to be suffering from the brutal offensive he faced in the general election when Murkowski opted to run a write iin campaign. However, Miller is a passionate and capable candidate. I think he could well be electable statewide with a bit more exposure and working within the Republican party in the next election cycle. Dan Sullivan is well-positioned to beat Begich. Even after being hit with amost $5 million in negative attacks, he can’t be stopped. In fact, his numbers are growing. The Republican party has one candidate that caan be beat Begich and that’s Dan Sullivan. You know they’re scared having spent $5m and remaiins unstoppable.

  15. Anonymous

    You gobble up RPM/Afghan Dan’s crap like none other. You must be giddy with excitement. This poll is horseshit.

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