Below is a summary of the most recent PPP polls, which shows GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan up 1 percent, gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker up by 1, Rep. Don Young by 6. Also a recent Rasmussen Reports poll has Walker up by 7 and Sullivan up by 5. Caution: both PPP and Rasmussen use robo-calls to conduct their surveys. That’s not to say that robo-polling is always bad, it’s just at this stage of the season, when Alaska is so over-polled, I can’t imagine that machines are getting good samples.
Here’s PPP’s summary:
The Alaska Senate race is even tighter than the one in Colorado, with Dan Sullivan leading Mark Begich just 46/45 with the full field and 47/46 in a head to head contest. Begich leads 50/36 with independents and has 91% of the Democratic vote behind him to just 81% of Republicans who are for Sullivan. The picture in this race is pretty steady- Sullivan led by 2 points on our last poll in September. Begich has a very strong ground game and it could be enough to put him over the top.
The Alaska Governor’s race is similarly tight with independent Bill Walker holding a 1 point lead over Republican incumbent Sean Parnell, 46/45. Walker held a 1 point lead in September as well. Voters are very closely divided on Parnell’s job performance with 44% approving of him to 45% who disapprove. On the other hand voters like Walker with 45% rating him favorably to 26% with a negative view.
The contest that’s seen a lot of movement in Alaska since September is the House race. Don Young now leads by just 6 points at 47/41, after having previously held a 15 point advantage at 48/33. His various incidents in the last month seem to be taking a toll.