Pollster Matt Larkin’s GOP Senate race numbers and prediction

Anchorage-based Matt Larkin, who has polled the U.S. GOP primary Senate race three times beginning in May,  released his numbers tonight. His polling figures, as well as his final prediction, have Dan Sullivan winning, Joe MIller coming in second, and Mead Treadwell in third place. Larkin is calling the race tighter than pollster Ivan Moore predicted earlier today. Larkin has Sullivan at 39 percent, Miller at 32 percent, and Treadwell at 27 percent. Moore had Sullivan with a 14 point lead over Miller.

If you click on Larkin’s graph below, what’s most striking is how far and how fast Miller has risen–from a low of 12 percent in May–and how Treadwell’s numbers have fallen from a high of 35 percent in May.

The earliest poll in May was paid for by Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan, who’s running for lieutenant governor. The other three were paid for by Larkin himself.

Here’s the graph: Dittman – 2014 Republican Senate Track (1)


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