Senate poll: GOP candidate Sullivan ahead of primary pack, even with Begich

A new poll, first released at the Alaska Republican Party annual convention in Juneau, shows that GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has a double-digit lead against the two other GOP contenders in the race, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller, with a large percent still undecided. It also finds that Alaska’s view of Sen. Mark Begich’s positive image has “tumbled” over the past months. As of the end of April when the poll was conducted, Begich was only two percentage points ahead of Sullivan in a general election.

The poll was conducted by Portland-based Moore Information, and was paid for by Sullivan.  It was conducted April 27-28, in 500 live interviews on both landline and cell phone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent. Moore is associated with Republicans and has a long history for polling for Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Rep. Don Young. The firm also polled for the late Sen. Ted Stevens.

The last time the firm polled early this year, Sullivan polled two percentage points behind Treadwell and ten points ahead of Joe Miller. By the end of April, however, 38 percent of primary voters were going to vote for Sullivan, while Treadwell would get 22 percent and Miller 12 percent. However, 29 percent of primary voters are still undecided, leaving lots of room for Treadwell and Miller to pick up support.

According to the poll, Begich’s positive image went from a net +17 positive to a net +5 today. “The more voters learn about Mark Begich and his ties to the Obama agenda, the less likely they are to hold a favorable impression of him and, conversely, the more likely to hold a negative opinion of him,” Moore’s Senior Vice President Hans Kaiser wrote in a narrative accompanying the poll.

Kaiser wrote that Begich’s vote on ObamaCare appears to be his most serious liability. Among undecided voters, 56 percent are less likely to vote for a candidate who supported Obamacare. More bad news for Begich: only 24 percent had a positive view of Obama while 63 percent had a negative view.

However, it’s impossible to say what those numbers really mean as the chart accompanying the poll didn’t show the total percentage points of undecided voters in the general election.

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9 thoughts on “Senate poll: GOP candidate Sullivan ahead of primary pack, even with Begich

  1. Perry

    While your poll numbers are quite I assume. The fact that Begich has people
    in every village who are going to lead voters to the polls. I do not think that this
    is reflective in the polling. In each village and small town he has a minimum of
    two people to get the vote out in the general election. Unless Dan Sullivan has
    the same effort in the villages his candidacy will find itself in trouble. I feel his
    primary numbers are winning one’s but also that if Joe Miller institutes himself
    in the General Election it will be no contest.

  2. Vic

    This poll, assuming it is accurate, tells me that Begich is in trouble and that the demographics at play in this race look good for Sullivan. I think that Sullivan could well be the next senator unless Begich can fanagle some third party into the race. Bet the Democrats are working on it already.

  3. Political Junkie

    No wonder Begich and all the democratic-leaning Super PAC organizations are running so many negative commercials against Sullivan. This poll clearly shows that after more than five years in Washington, Alaskans aren’t pleased with the junior senator’s performance. Begich’s big mistake was embracingg Obama and his liberal policies. That position is contrary to the values of most Alaskans. Unless Begich sneaks a third party opponent into the race, I predict that our next senator is likely to be Dan Sullivan. That suits me just fine. He’s smart, served in the military and appreciates more conservative values and free market principals. Really didn’t understand why Begich and his people were attacking Sullivan at this stage of the campaign until I read this article. Very clear now.

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