Monthly Archives: February 2014

Lies, damned lies, statistics and partisan polls

Two partisan polls from both sides of the aisle were released this week. Both of the polls included Alaska issues, and the U.S. Senate race. Both are more interesting than credible, but perhaps open a window of light into the race that has so far released few numbers.

The first poll was from the left wing firm, Public Policy Polling, commonly called PPP, and was conducted earlier this month. That firm is no stranger to Alaska polling. Following the gun control debate in Congress, the organization released an improbable poll that said that U.S. Sen. Mark Begich’s vote against gun control resulted in a decline of support among Alaskans.

In this poll, PPP polled 850 registered voters including 442 Republican primary voters. The firm’s methodology has changed some. Included in the robo calls are opt-in internet surveys. But it still can’t manage to get its demographics right. This one, like the one on guns, over sampled both women and Democrats.

The second is from Harper Polling, a right-wing firm, which surveyed 677 likely voters Jan. 20-22. Harper also uses robo calling and also appears to oversample women and Democrats, and although it has a similar margin of error as the PPP poll, it comes up with very different numbers. The left leaning group has Begich on top and the right leaning polling group has two of the GOP contenders beating Begich. Surprised?

Here’s PPP’s numbers:

  • Begich beats former DNR Commissioner Dan Sullivan 41 to 37 percent.
  • Begich beats Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell 43 percent to 37 percent
  • Begich beats Joe Miller 45 to 25 percent.
  • In a GOP primary, Sullivan leads with 30 percent to Treadwell’s 25 percent and Joe Miller’s 20 percent.

Harper Polling comes up with the following:

  • Treadwell beats Begich 47 to 41 percent.
  • Sullivan beats Begich 47 to 41 percent.
  • Begich beats Miller 51 to 32 percent.

All of which perhaps proves the adage that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

It’s also worth noting that nobody who’s watching this race believes that the majority of the public at this point can distinguish between Dan Sullivan the Senate candidate and Dan Sullivan, the well-known Anchorage mayor.

Also, local pollster Marc Hellenthal, who knows how to poll this state, has Begich doing pretty well in Alaska, particularly in Anchorage, which had been a problem for him.

Hellenthal wouldn’t release the numbers, but he said that Begich seems to “have solved his Anchorage problem.”

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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In time for the Olympics, war over between GCI’s KTVA and KTUU

I didn’t follow the back and forth much, (read about the confusing mess here) but I do know that recently KTUU has been putting out statements about GCI not allowing rural and Southeast stations to air the Olympics. Maybe that’s the reason behind the detente. Maybe not. Anyway, here’s the memo sent to KTUU staff by general manager Andy MacLeod:

Today KTUU-TV’s signal will return to rural Alaska GCI systems. Also within several days our newscasts will return to GCI owned television stations and cable systems in southeast.

We and GCI have struck a long-term agreement on carriage that is a good deal for both companies and allows each to grow into the future. Most importantly it returns NBC and the Olympics and our Sochi coverage to rural GCI subscribers, and our news and Sochi coverage to southeast viewers.

I signed the multi year contract this morning. It is a full carriage agreement based on current industry practices and market based.

It is good for us, GCI and the viewers who rely on us.

I want to thank all of you who have answered viewer questions on the blackout, and kept the lines of communication open with the affected communities. Brad’s press release is attached.

When the signal is turned on is up to GCI, but undoubtedly they will work to air the opening ceremonies of the Olympics tonight, while Southeast news distribution is expected by Monday or so.

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Fact checking Senate candidate Sullivan’s ObamaCare job-killing claim

U.S. GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan sent out a press release on Wednesday, regurgitating GOP talking points over a Congressional Budget Office report which, according to Sullivan, “spells trouble for Senator Mark Begich.” According to Sullivan, the report says that up to 2.3 million Americans could “lose their jobs as a result of Begich’s vote” on ObamaCare.

Apparently, Sullivan didn’t read the full report. While it’s true that the report estimates that people will be putting in fewer traditional work hours, they will be doing so in order to “take early retirement, work fewer hours or otherwise rearrange their work-home balance to take advantage of new subsidies for health insurance and new markets for individual policies that don’t depend on having a job.”

They won’t be stuck in jobs just to keep the insurance. They might even choose to start their own businesses without worrying aobut the crippling costs of buying insurance on the private market.

As the AP put it, “workers aren’t being laid off. They are taking themselves out of the workforce, in many cases opening job opportunities for others.” They are doing so because for the first time in their lives, many aren’t subject to an exploitative insurance industry and, like me, can buy affordable health insurance on the private market.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Loose Lips: Begich takes it to the Koch brothers, an Arctic something or another, and an expensive war on judges.

Loose LipsSince I started my column in the Anchorage Daily News, I haven’t been keeping up as much with the daily prattle which people really seem to like. Instead, in the true tradition of “real” journalists everywhere, I’ve been spending my days deciding not to give people what they really want, but instead what they need.

Right now at least, I’m so over all of that. So here are a few items that nobody really needs to know but seem to like knowing:

Alaska state Sen. Lesil McGuire and Rep. Bob Herron, who serve as co-chairs of the Arctic something or another committee, are going to Seattle for some sort of Arctic dealeo and are having dinner with White House staff Thursday. Sorry to sound less than excited about this. I only get about 8 million emails a day about all the impending Arctic development, while all I see is lots of ice and companies trying to hightail it out of there.

Pete Peterson announced he’s running for Anchorage Assembly. There’ s a party for him Thursday at Café Del Mundo. I’ll be there, if for no other reason than because boxing champion Regina Manteufel will be there also. A towering woman, Manteufe has spent the last few years trying to get clothes for women who are out of prison and need to go to job interviews. But she hasn’t given up on competitions. Last year, she won second place in the women’s water-hauling contest at the state fair.

From Sen. Mark Begich’s Facebook page about the Koch Brothers’ owned North Pole Flint Hills refinery, which announced on Tuesday that it is closing:

The Koch Brothers will close the Flint Hills Refinery and lay off an estimated 90 Alaska workers. They’re doing this while pushing an agenda that’s out-of-touch with Alaska and spending tens of millions on political attacks. I’m born-and-raised in Alaska and I’d never bet against Alaskans.

Yeah, tell that to those 90 workers who will be losing their jobs and the Alaska Railroad, which is losing its biggest costumer.

One of my favorite reporters in this state was recently pumping out stories for the Juneau Empire. Now she’s not. More to come.

I haven’t yet been to the state capital this session, but word is that a fight is brewing behind closed doors, whereby BP and ConocoPhillips are quietly aligning themselves against Exxon and TransCanada over the large diameter pipe dream of a gasline that everyone knows will likely never get built.

This one was predictable: From an email send out by Jim MInnery from Alaska Family Action regarding an Anchorage Superior Court Judge John Suddock’s ruling to stay new Medicaid abortion regulations as requested by Planned Parenthood:

Many of you have asked what you can do to protest Judge Suddock’s involvement in this case, since his former law partner once helped represent Planned Parenthood in an earlier lawsuit over Medicaid funding of abortion. It’s outrageous that Judge Suddock is still even on this case. We recommend that you file a complaint with the Alaska Commission on Judicial Conduct.

Expect the fight to continue and to get nasty and costly. The last big fight over Medicaid and abortion was in 2001. Abortion rights were upheld by the Alaska Supreme Court and the state ended up paying up $618,000 in 2001 dollars. As Sen. Berta Gardner recently wrote, court challenges are likely going to cost the state a million or more this year, a year that is supposed to be the beginning of some sort of state austerity program.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com 

Correction: In an earlier version I called Sen. Berta Gardner Rep. Berta Gardner. That’s bad, but not as bad as misspelling Beth Kerttula’s name in a headline recently. Also, I once called Mead Treadwell Mean Treadwell, which is all wrong in all sorts of ways. The lesson? I need an editor who’s willing to work long hours, for free, with no particular goal in mind and who’s willing to be universally disliked for it all.

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State’s new Medicaid system makes ObamaCare rollout ‘look good’ says Higgins

25092993_mMembers of the medical community testified at a legislative hearing today about the numerous failures with the state’s new Medicaid payment system, an online system that’s been in the works for seven years and went into effect in October. Some of the providers who testified said that because the payment system doesn’t work and they aren’t getting paid to provide services, they are on the brink of going out of business. One said that she had to take money out of her children’s college fund so that she could keep her assisted living facility in Fairbanks open. Others said that they have had to hire additional staff to deal with the problems in the new system.

House Health and Social Services Committee Chair Republican Rep. Pete Higgins, a Fairbanks dentist, said that the system makes the problem with Obamacare’s rollout “look good.”

The Department of Health and Social Services contracted with Xerox in 2007 to upgrade the 25-year-old Medicaid payment system. The total contract was for $146 million, including the costs of continuing to run the system for a certain number of years. It was supposed to be completed by 2010. Instead, it rolled out in Oct. 2013, and immediately caused huge problems to medical providers who bill the state for Medicaid services.

Alaska is not alone with the issues it’s had with the system. New Hampshire and North Dakota have also experienced problems with the same Xerox system. In Montana, as of December, Xerox missed three deadlines and was facing penalties of $30,000-per-working-day, according to news reports. Montana was considering shelving the system.

In Alaska, the online system apparently was not thoroughly tested before it went live. It did not work, and for months, it appeared as if little was being done to get those providers information regarding payments for medical services.

According to a chart provided by Xerox, in November the call line fielded about 3,500 calls. The average time to get through for those who did not give up was 54 minutes. In December, that number dropped to an average of 45 minutes.

David Hamilton, a representative from Xerox, told the committee that calls now are being answered in five minutes or less. However, some who testified disputed that number. They said when they called, they were still put on hold for much longer than that, and when they did get a person to speak to, the person often didn’t have answers to questions.

“Many have quit calling the line” said Karen Perdue, director of the Alaska State Hospital and Nursing Home Association. Perdue conducted a survey of the association’s members last week. The total amount of money owed by the state to those who answered the question was $198 million. Although she said that the state has been helpful and responsive, 21 hospitals rated the new system’s timeliness and accuracy as either poor, very poor or barely acceptable.

Because of the problems with payments, the state began providing so-called “advances” to providers based not solely on what they billed, but based, at least in part, on historical data. All told, according to DHSS Commissioner William Streur, the Medicaid department has sent providers $118 million in such advance payments.

However, because payments have not corresponded with the patient services, many providers are leery of taking the money, fearing the state will audit them and they will have to try to match payment with services.

MaLane Harbour, the director of Primrose Retirement Communities in Wasilla, said that if such an audit does take place, it will be an “accounting nightmare.” She said that the center has hired a new staff member just to deal with this, and that it’s negatively effecting the patients.

Lisa Smith, director of Choices, an Anchorage mental health center, said that her reserves have run dry, and that she requested advances twice in January but hasn’t heard back. “If this can’t be corrected we’ll be forced to close our doors before the next fiscal year,” she said.

Hamilton, from Xerox, told the committee that the system has improved over time, and they expect to get the bugs worked out in the coming months.

“We do understand the impact, and we apologize for the interruption,” he said.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Super-PAC supporting Senate candidate Dan Sullivan releases first tv ad

The mouthful of a super PAC,  Alaska’s Energy/America’s Values, which supports U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, released its first TV ad of the election cycle. The PAC is run by long time Alaska-based GOP political consultant Art Hackney who said that the buy total was $41,000. The ad features Sullivan, Ronald Reagan and Ted Stevens. Sullivan’s campaign has yet to release a television ad.

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Senate candidate Sullivan backs up 97 percent charge against Begich

Republican Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has been using the line on the trail and in stump speeches that U.S. Sen. Mark Begich has voted with Obama 97 percent of the time in 2013.

“After almost four months on the campaign trail, I have not met one Alaskan who agrees with President Obama’s agenda 97 percent of the time,” Sullivan has been saying repeatedly, in hopes, apparently, that it becomes a meme and will stick much like Romney’s 47 percent line stuck.

Sullivan repeated the refrain in a press release on Monday. And this time, Sullivan had backup for that 97 percent. His release points to a study conducted by CQ Roll Call, which  has Begich voting 97 percent of the time with the president on 108 bills that CQ Roll Call identified had the president’s support. Sixty five of the 108 were nominations.

According to the study, Sen. Lisa Murkowski voted with the president 72 percent of the time, and Rep. Don Young voted with the president 22 percent of the time.

Begich voted against the president three times. Those no votes, however, were enough to land him in 10th place in CQ Roll Call’s list of Senators least supportive of the president.

Ryan Kelly, a Roll Call CQ researcher, put together the following list of votes that Begich cast against the president, as well as the six ones that he missed. The missed votes did not count against Begich’s percentile rank.

Votes on which Begich disagreed with Obama:

Senate Vote 97 – S 649: Gun Policy Revisions – Background Checks

April 17, 2013 – Manchin, D-W.Va., amendment no. 715 that would expand an existing background check system to include firearms purchased at gun shows and over the Internet. It would allow gun show sales to proceed if a background check does not prompt a response within 48 hours and reduce that to a 24-hour wait four years after enactment. It would exempt family transfers and some private sales. The amendment would restrict law enforcement grant funds for states that do not provide all available records to the national background check database. It would ban the creation of a national firearms registry, allow active-duty military members buy guns in their home state and create a commission to study the causes of mass violence in the United States. Rejected 54-46: R 4-41; D 48-5; I 2-0.

Senate Vote 101 – S 649: Gun Policy Revisions – Assault Weapons Ban

April 17, 2013 – Feinstein, D-Calif., amendment no. 711 that would prohibit the future production, import, sale, transfer or possession of certain firearms considered to be assault weapons and ammunition magazines holding more than 10 rounds, with exemptions for law enforcement officials. It would exempt certain firearms used for hunting and sporting purposes from the ban. It also would allow law enforcement grant funds be used to buy back semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition clips. Rejected 40-60: R 1-44; D 38-15; I 1-1.

Senate Vote 103 – S 649: Gun Policy Revisions – High-Capacity Clip Ban

April 17, 2013 – Blumenthal, D-Conn., amendment no. 714 that would prohibit the future production, import, sale, transfer or possession of ammunition magazines holding more than 10 rounds, with exemptions for law enforcement officials. It would also allow law enforcement grant funds be used to buy back semiautomatic assault weapons and large capacity ammunition clips. Rejected 46-54: R 1-44; D 43-10; I 2-0.

Votes that Begich missed:

Senate Vote 25 – : Lew Nomination – Confirmation

February 27, 2013 – Confirmation of President Barack Obama’s nomination of Jacob J. Lew of New York to be secretary of Treasury.

Confirmed 71-26: R 20-25; D 50-0; I 1-1.

Senate Vote 28 – : Failla Nomination – Confirmation

March 04, 2013 – Confirmation of President Barack Obama’s nomination of Katherine Polk Failla of New York to be a judge for the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Confirmed 91-0: R 41-0; D 48-0; I 2-0.

Senate Vote 113 – S 743: Internet Sales Tax – Passage

May 06, 2013 – Passage of the bill that would allow states to require out-of-state retailers with annual remote sales that exceed $1 million to collect sales taxes on items delivered to the state. Passed 69-27: R 21-22; D 46-5; I 2-0.

Senate Vote 145 – S 954: Farm Programs – Passage

June 10, 2013 – Passage of the bill that would reauthorize federal farm, food, nutrition and conservation programs through fiscal 2018. Passed 66-27: R 18-25; D 46-2; I 2-0.

Senate Vote 170 – : Dorsey Nomination – Confirmation

July 09, 2013 – Confirmation of President Barack Obama’s nomination of Jennifer A. Dorsey of Nevada to be a judge for the U.S. District Court for the District of Nevada. Confirmed 54-41: R 1-41; D 51-0; I 2-0.

Senate Vote 235 – : Wilkins Nomination – Cloture

November 18, 2013 – Motion to invoke cloture (thus limiting debate) on President Barack Obama’s nomination of Robert L. Wilkins of the District of Columbia to be a judge for the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Motion rejected 53-38: R 2-37; D 49-1; I 2-0.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com 

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Alaska AG signs court brief supporting Nevada’s gay marriage ban

Alaska state Attorney General Michael Geraghty has signed on to a brief in support of Nevada’s voter approved, gay marriage ban, which is being challenged by eight same sex couples. The amicus brief, in support of Nevada’s attorney general, was filed in the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals and argues that no fundamental right to same-sex marriage exists.

“If public affirmation of anyone and everyone’s personal love and commitment is the single purpose of civil marriage, a limitless number of rights claims could be set up that evacuate the term ‘marriage’ of any meaning,” the brief says.

Attorneys general from Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Carolina also signed the document.

Alaska’s state Constitution defines marriage as an institution between one man and one woman. In total, thirty three states have banned same sex marriage either through constitutional amendment or through legislation.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com 

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Juneau Dems forward three names to Parnell. Who’s going to get the nod?

Juneau Democrats have selected three names from a list of nine applicants, that they will forward to Gov. Sean Parnell for consideration to fill the seat vacated by Rep. Beth Kerttula. The governor has thirty days to make a selection.

The three nominees are Jesse Kiehl, Catherine Reardon and Sam Kito III.

Jesse Kiehl currently serves on the Juneau Assembly and is an aide to Sen. Dennis Egan. Catherine Reardon is also a legislative aide to Rep. Andy Josephson and has served in the past as vice chair of the Alaska Democratic Party and as a division director in the Department of Commerce.

Sam Kito III is currently a lobbyist working with his father Sam Kito, who is the longest serving lobbyist in the state. He has worked as a civil engineer in the past.

Not to take anything away from the other candidates, but I’ve heard that Kiehl was probably the first choice of the Democrats and considered to be the most popular with the electorate, which might be exactly the reason that Parnell rejects him. Remember: Parnell’s a Republican and has to walk that fine line between what’s good for the state and what’s good for the party.

Parnell will likely not choose a lobbyist. Therefore — and this is pure speculation —  I think Catherine Reardon will get the nod. At least Parnell will get some credit for appointing a woman, and he can hope that Kiehl with take on Reardon in a primary.

There is a horse-trading caveat to this. Kiehl is Egan’s aide, and if Egan wants him in the Legislature bad enough, both might be willing to deal with Parnell to vote on something important in his legislative package.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Legislative hearing to address problems with new $146 million Medicaid payment system

5839204_mFairbanks Rep. Pete Higgins, chair of the House Health and Social Services Committee, will be holding a hearing on Tuesday in response to complaints from the Medicaid provider community on why they aren’t getting paid.

The Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, which is in charge of Medicaid payments, upgraded its 25-year-old payment system in October. The new system is a Xerox product and is run by that company. It cost the state $146 million.

It was supposed to make things smoother, but it’s been so plagued with glitches that some providers are on the verge of going out of business because they haven’t been paid through the system.

Recently, State Health Care Service Director Margaret Brodi said that it still might be four to eight weeks before the system is completely functional.

Ruth Babcock runs three assisted living programs in Homer, which serve a total of about 15 clients, most of whom are on Medicaid. One of the homes didn’t get any payments for several months. After she contacted her state representatives and wrote a letter to Gov. Sean Parnell, payments began to trickle in, slowly. She said it’s still “nip and tuck” however.

The state still owes the company about $50,000. “Our elders deserve better than this,” Babcock said.

A dentist who declined to go on the record said that he, too, was having issues with the payments until he contacted a state representative. Now, he’s begun getting paid through the system for some, but not for all of the services for which he is owed.

On Jan. 24, KTUU reported that an assisted living facility in Palmer was owed $750,000. The facility’s funds are almost completely drained.

Babcock said that even if and when the system is fully functional, she’ll never be paid back for the lost time that she and her workers have spent on trying to get payments. On Monday morning, for instance, she spent 30 minutes on the phone with DHSS and as of noon, still hadn’t received paperwork she needs to fill out for a claim. There have been times when she’s been kept on hold for up to an hour.

The old system worked just fine, she said.

On Friday, DHSS had a teleconference with the Alaska dentists to discuss the new system. Rep. Higgins, who’s chairing the legislative hearing on Tuesday, is a dentist. The Alaska dentists have a strong PAC in the state.

Babcock and other providers have not been invited to such a meeting.

The hearing is at 3 p.m. You can watch it live on Gavel to Gavel.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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National attention given to Sullivan’s success and Treadwell’s fundraising failures

This week isn’t starting off too well for GOP Senate candidate Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell. Two stories, one in Politico and the other in The Hill, were published on Sunday, both of which highlight how much money his challenger in the GOP Senate primary, Dan Sullivan, has raised and how little Treadwell raised in the fourth quarter: Sullivan’s $1.25 million to Treadwell’s $228,000. Treadwell was among what Politico called the “10 fundraising losers.”

U.S. Sen. Mark Begich raised a respectable $850,000.

Treadwell has about $95,000 cash on hand. His campaign debts total more than $141,000, including money that Treadwell lent his campaign. So it appears that he’s operating in the red. Sullivan’s campaign says that it has about $1.1 million cash on hand. Begich has $2.8 million.

According to Politico, internal polls show that Treadwell has a better chance of beating Begich than does Sullivan. However, such low numbers “scare national Republican strategists,” says Politico. It should be noted that so do articles like those in Politico and The Hill.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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Senate candidate Sullivan leads in fourth-quarter fundraising. Where will tea party money go?

The fourth-quarter Senate race numbers are in. U.S. Sen. Mark Begich pulled in about $850,000, leaving him with about $2.8 million cash on hand. His super-PAC raised $287,500, most of which came from the Senate Majority PAC.

Among Begich’s potential Republican challengers:

  • Dan Sullivan said that he raised about $1.25 million.  A super PAC formed to support him has raised $70,100.
  • Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell raised $229,000, leaving him with only $95,000 on hand. Unless Treadwell is willing to self-fund, that doesn’t leave him much to run a credible campaign against Begich.
  • No word yet from Joe Miller, who has been more focused on getting grassroots support than in raising money.

Begich is also benefiting from the plethora if business interests, like the American Chemistry Council, the National Association of Realtors, and Bristol Bay Native Corp., all of which are running ads thanking him for supporting particular issues. As long as those organizations aren’t explicitly endorsing him for Senate, they don’t have to disclose their donors.

There’s a lot more money floating out there in the world of conservative super-PACs that hasn’t yet made its way to Alaska. The New York Times is reporting that the more conservative, tea party groups — FreedomWorks, the Club for Growth Action Fund, the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Tea Party Patriots—have raised $20 million in 2013.

That’s much more than the $7.7 million the more “establishment” Republican PACs with close ties to Congress have raised, according to the New York Times. Politico is reporting that the three groups headed by Karl Rove raised a combined $6.1 million in 2013. That money would also likely go to support more establishment Republicans.

It’s unclear who the tea party groups would support among the Republican candidates in Alaska. Dan Sullivan’s challengers have been painting him as the “establishment” Republican, a charge that’s fueled by Sullivan himself, who doesn’t shy away from the fact that he worked for Condoleezza Rice in the State Department.

But the tea party faction is leery of Mead Treadwell because of his support for international treaties, particularly the Law of the Sea, and for his on-again-off-again support of Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is considered a moderate.

That leaves Joe Miller, who lost in the last race against Murkowski, who was a write-in candidate. Miller can, in a word, be unpredictable.

Contact Amanda Coyne at amandamcoyne@yahoo.com

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