Historic Democratic bias in Alaska polls

So many, including me, are all wondering how to read the current slate of polls. Is Gov. Sean Parnell down by 7 or by 1. Is Sen. Mark Begich down by 1 or by 5?  And what the heck is going on with Rep. Don Young? Nothing’s for sure, but do keep in mind that Alaska is a hard place to poll, and that, historically, Alaska polls have shown a Democratic bias. Here’s a chart that Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight put together a few weeks ago, illustrating that according to his model, the polls have averaged a 7 point Democratic bias in every single race since 2000:



4 thoughts on “Historic Democratic bias in Alaska polls

  1. Barnes

    Who cares what Berkowitz thinks. I use to think he had some worthwhile thoughts until he teamed up with the girl-mouth that he does the radio show with. They’re awful. Does anyone listen?

  2. Tired of surveys

    Maybe there is an Alaskan bias for answering phone surveys honestly, forthrightly and nakedly night after night upon night, between D’s, R’s, and non-partisans in this state?

    After listening to Amanda’s homage to great conversation at political fundraisers this year, in particular D’s, I wonder if there is not something deeper at play in the game of phone survey tag?

    Which way do you think most self-proclaimed Independent Spirited Alaskans vote in Alaska, and then what tendencies to fidelity in storytelling might we assign to each block of voters?

    Which group of people are most likely to hang up after the giveaway three second pause after answering the phone before the computer generated voice starts its political interrogation?

    Which group might just occasionally make up answers or just provide talk back that disguises the real voting intention of the voter?

    Might this be a possible explanation as to why polling is notoriously difficult in Alaska… because Alaskans might like to jerk the phone chain every now and then, you know, just to make life a bit more interesting while family time at home is disrupted for the sixth time that day, on the 60th consecutive day, usually during dinner or on a Sunday for those folks who still consider it the Sabbath?

    Phones: can’t live with them, can’t live without them…

  3. Leonard

    I find it telling that the two races that were polling closer than 5 points, only had a bias of 3.3 points, which is within a normal margin of error. Seems clear to me that democrats didn’t show up when the race was less in jeopardy.

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