A new poll of the U.S. Senate race by Harstad Strategic Research who’s polling for Senate Majority PAC shows that U.S. Sen. Mark Begich is leading GOP challenger Dan Sullivan by 5 percentage points. Here are the numbers:
Polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight strikes a cautionary note:
As other commentators have noted, Alaska is a hard state to poll accurately. What we haven’t seen remarked upon is how those misses have come in one direction, almost always overestimating the performance of Democrats.
Here’s Silver’s chart detailing that historical bias:
The poll does effect the FiveThirtyEight model, but by less than if it weren’t paid for by the Senate Majority PAC. It says that Sullivan has a 62 percent chance of winning the seat, which is down from 69 percent as a result of this poll.