• Gov. Parnell’s “milestone” label for the new Alaska-Japan LNG agreement has Dermot Cole scratching his head. In the ADN, Cole points out the striking resemblance between the new AK-Japan LNG memo and the one-year old AK-Japan LNG memo in vague language, tone and intent.
• Meantime, Gov. Sean Parnell’s op-ed about Bill Walker’s lack of a gas pipeline plan is still reverberating through the tubes.
• U.S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan explained his change in heart regarding his new-found support for the minimum wage ballot measure in the News Miner.
• A lawsuit was filed to challenge decision by Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell to allow the pairing of Bill Walker and Byron Mallott for the gubernatorial race.

Continue reading →

“Fiscal hawk” Brad Keithley has released what has being called his “hit list” of state legislative candidates that he’ll target, and ones he’ll support, in upcoming races, with up to $200,000 of his own money.

He’ll be opposing the following three incumbents:

• Republican House Majority Leader Lance Pruitt in East Anchorage.
• Republican Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux in East Anchorage.
• Democrat Rep. Geran Tarr in East/ and Midtown Anchorage.

Their challengers are Democrat Matt Moore, Democrat Laurie Hummel, and Libertarian Cean Stevens.

In an open House seat in West Anchorage, he will be supporting Republican House candidate Anand Dubey over Democrat Matt Claman.

Tarr is in the Minority and LeDoux is not part of the House leadership.

Keithley said he’ll be “closely watching” two Senate seats, and potentially an additional House race.

Anchorage-based Keithley, a lawyer until recently with Perkins Coie Continue reading →

On Wednesday, Steve Strait and Frank McQueary, who are both state Republican Party officials, filed a lawsuit challenging Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell’s decision to allow Bill Walker and Byron Mallott to run together in the governor’s race as the “Unity” ticket. Treadwell oversees the division of elections. He certified the ticket on September 2, the last day such changes were allowed.

Two days before the due date, on Labor Day, the Alaska Democratic Party’s state Central Committee voted to put Walker, a Republican who had been running as an Independent, on top of the ticket, and Byron Mallott, who had won the Democratic gubernatorial primary, as his lieutenant governor. The switch was made because the party didn’t think they could win any other way. Alaska state Sen. Hollis French, who won the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor, is now not running for anything. It was one of the stranger acts of politics in Alaska, and among other things, means that for the first time in history, the Democratic Party will not have a Democratic candidate running for governor.

Long-time lawyer Ken Jacobus is representing Strait and McQueary, who are paying for it themselves, they said. Continue reading →

Get your background here.

I love it. Now we have snowmobile truthers http://t.co/pYKEKahpdM #AKSen

— Daily Kos Elections (@DKElections) September 17, 2014

The last politician to get “helmet hair” before @MarkBegich? Mike Dukakis. Now that’s GREAT company! http://t.co/BgKk86xTOZ #akelect #aksen — Tim Fitzpatrick (@MediaFitz) September 17, 2014

Begich deploys an AR15 to defend his ad. Wow. RT @dylanlscott: “Yes. It was me on the snow machine.” #AKSen: http://t.co/XSldQVGrNc — R Subramanian (@randomsubu) September 17, 2014

Currently waiting on the new @MarkBegich ad featuring him riding an AR-15. #aksen #purewashington

— Ben Sparks (@BenjaminSparks) September 17, 2014

Continue reading →

GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign released an ad featuring Soldotna snow machine racer Cory Davis, a four-time X-Games medalist. The commercial accuses Sen. Mark Begich of “lame” snow machine fakery in Begich’s own snow machine commercial that was shot in the Interior earlier in the campaign.

“I know something about snow machines. That’s why I had a good laugh, when I saw Mark Begich pretending to ride one,” Davis says in the ad. “Begich acts like Mr. Alaskan when he wants our vote, but the truth is, he votes with Obama and his D.C. friends, not Alaska. I’m tired of the phony politicians and Mark Begich’s lame tricks.”

It’s one of Sullivan’s best ads to date. At the very least, it’s kind of fun to watch. That might be why Begich told Politico that he thinks the ad should be “pulled,” because it’s not factual.

Here’s Begich to Politico on that earlier, snow machine experience:

One guy for example, wore an AR-15 around his shoulders because the area we were going to is where polar bears are, and he wanted to make sure we weren’t going to be attacked… To say that I wasn’t on that snow machine riding it? I rode it for a long time out there and in weather that was very cold that day to the point where I frostbit part of my ear… Look at the picture of me when I take my helmet off. That’s what we call ‘helmet hair,’ that’s when you’re riding a snow machine.

A pro-Parnell independent expenditure group has formed to support Gov. Sean Parnell. The group is called Alaskans for Economic Stability. According to forms filed with APOC, the treasurer is Cheryl Frasca. Former Republican Party chair Randy Ruedrich is designated as a deputy treasurer. An IE in the state is equivalent to a federal super-PAC, in that it can accept unlimited donations and is not allowed to coordinate with the candidate or the candidate’s campaign.

Both Bill Walker and Byron Mallott , who are running together on the “Unity” ticket, have their own independent expenditure groups, although neither have had activity since August.  Mallott’s group, One Mallott, is funded by members of SeaAlaska Corp. As of the beginning of August, those members had put $50,000 into One Mallott, about $48,000 of which was spent on Trippi and Associates, a Maryland-based Democratic consultant run by well-known Democratic consultant Joe Trippi. Walker had $1,245.

Hays Research Group, an Alaska-based polling firm, released a poll which shows that in a head-to-head match up, Bill Walker, the gubernatorial candidate for the “Unity” ticket, is beating Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by 8 percentage points. A whopping 31 percent are still undecided. The poll didn’t include the names of each candidate’s lieutenant governors, and it described Walker as an “Independent.” On the ballot, he will be described as “unaffiliated.” The Alaska AFL-CIO paid for the poll. The umbrella union organization supports the “Unity” ticket and was instrumental in bringing Bill Walker, a Republican, and Democrat Byron Mallott together on one ticket. The poll, conducted between Sep. 13-14, surveyed 500 registered voters in the state of Alaska who had voted in at least two of the last three statewide general elections. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percent.

The same poll also shows U.S. Sen. Mark Begich up by 5 points over Dan Sullivan. Hays warns, however that the “race has been quite volatile with each candidate taking the lead at various times throughout the past few weeks.”

The results for both races is consistent with Harstad Strategic Research, which recently polled both races for the Senate Majority PAC.

Read the full Hays poll here.

This is from an eagle-eyed reader, who sees the potential for trouble for the Unity ticket regarding subsistence rights.

The Central Council of Tlingit-Haida Indian Tribes of Alaska — a Juneau-based organization known locally as Tlingit-Haida Central Council or, simply, Tlingit-Haida — has endorsed Bill Walker and Byron Mallott. (Read the press release here.)

This comes on the heels of Gov. Sean Parnell signing a Memorandum of Understanding last month with Tlingit-Haida Central Council on jobs, education, and job training. See the governor’s August 25, 2014, press release announcing the MOU here. Also see the KTOO and Juneau Empire stories about the event here and here.

The endorsement may be seen as a slap in the face to Parnell.

It also may not seem surprising because the organization was likely to support a fellow Tlingit, Byron Mallott. But how might this look to the Alaska Outdoor Council, Tea Party, Joe Miller supporters, Fairbanks residents, or other groups that vie with Native organizations on hot issues like a rural subsistence priority?

How might this help Bill Walker in one place but hurt him elsewhere?

That’s what is fascinating about the Bill Walker-Byron Mallott alliance: Support from one group may alienate another.

How does one build a constituency for a new entity like the Unity ticket?

What a tricky calculus.

Eric Thompson, the man who was fired from his job after speaking to the media about the Palin family brawl, is asking the public for help. Thompson was a project supervisor for McKenna Bros. Paving. The company is owned by Matt and Marc McKenna. The party, held at the office manager’s house, was a birthday party for them. On Thursday night last week, Thompson told Good Morning America what he had witnessed at the party. The show aired on Friday morning. An hour later, he was fired from his job for speaking out, he said. Marc McKenna and Todd Paln are Iron Dog racers and are said to be friends. Alaska is an “at will” state, meaning that with few exceptions, an employer can fire an non-union employee for just about anything.  Read more about Thompson’s options here. Here’s his eyewitness account. Here’s the site that he set up, accepting donations.

GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan announced, not to local publications or in a press conference, or in front of a group of Alaskans, but to the Wall Street Journal, that he’s changed his mind about the minimum wage initiative that will appear on the ballot. From the Journal:

Republican challenger Dan Sullivan said during his primary campaign that he opposes both a federal and a state increase. But Mr. Sullivan now says he plans to vote for Alaska’s ballot measure, which would increase the state’s hourly minimum wage to $9.75 from $7.75, index it to inflation and set Alaska’s wage floor to always be at least $1 more than the federal minimum…A spokesman said Mr. Sullivan shifted his stance because he “had a chance to read the minimum wage initiative” and now believes “Alaskans are better positioned to decide for themselves what the prevailing wage should be in their state.”

Democrats jumped. From Begich’s spokesperson Max Croes:

From the minimum wage to the Violence Against Women Act, Dan Sullivan won’t be honest with Alaskans about what he believes on core issues. Dan Sullivan has always dismissed the needs of Alaska’s working families who would benefit from a increase in the federal minimum wage and his most recent attempt to flip-flop proves he’ll say or do anything in an attempt to deceive Alaskans. Mark Begich knows the importance of paying workers a fair living wage and remains the only candidate in this election that supports raising the minimum wage and equal pay for equal work.

The Alaska AFL-CIO is “appalled” at Sullivan’s switch, which is perhaps a little odd, considering how much they support the minimum wage hike. Here’s AFL-CIO Vince Beltrami:

Sullivan changes positions as often as he changes his residency. His flip-flopping on the minimum wage shows he is willing to say anything to get elected.

On Friday, I was told that Eric Thompson, an eyewitness to the Palin family brawl, had been fired from his job with McKenna Bros. Paving for speaking to the media about the incident. McKenna Bros. Paving is owned by twins Marc and Matt McKenna. Marc is a fellow Iron Dog racer and is friends with Todd Palin. The birthday party was for them, and was held at the house of the company’s office manager.

I quoted Thompson extensively for a story. He was also on Good Morning America. He is 56 years old, and was a project supervisor. (Full disclosure: I gave a Good Morning America producer Thompson’s number with his permission. He was reluctant to appear on camera when I spoke to him.)

The next morning, he was told that his media appearance didn’t reflect well on the company and that he was fired.

Thompson was devastated. Continue reading →

Sen. Mark Begich’s campaign released an ad on Sunday highlighting his record for things that he’s done for the state, and repeating allegations from other ads, one of which has been resoundingly discredited and the other of which is suspect:

GOP challenger Dan Sullivan’s campaign also released an ad, using their best weapons—Sullivan’s wife Julie Fate Sullivan and the Marine Corps–against residency charges that have been leveled against Sullivan. The charges must be doing some damage.

“As somebody whose family has been in Alaska for thousands of years, I have a message for Mark Begich: Alaskans respect military service.  We don’t attack it,” Julie, who is Athabaskan, says.

The charge that Begich is attacking Sullivan for his military service is kind of a stretch, though you can see how they get there, and how other members of the military who have had to leave the state to serve might take offense. Sullivan is a Marine reservist Continue reading →

A new poll of the U.S. Senate race by Harstad Strategic Research who’s polling for Senate Majority PAC  shows that U.S. Sen. Mark Begich is leading GOP challenger Dan Sullivan by 5 percentage points. Here are the numbers:

Polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight strikes a cautionary note:

As other commentators have noted, Alaska is a hard state to poll accurately. What we haven’t seen remarked upon is how those misses have come in one direction, almost always overestimating the performance of Democrats.

Here’s Silver’s chart detailing that historical bias:

The poll does effect the FiveThirtyEight model, but by less than if it weren’t paid for by the Senate Majority PAC.  It says that Sullivan has a 62 percent chance of winning the seat, which is down from 69 percent as a result of this poll.