According to a question on a poll conducted by local pollster Ivan Moore, Ballot Measure 2, which would tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol, is winning in the state by about 18 percentage points, 57.2 percent to 38.7 percent The question about the measure was paid for by the group working to legalize pot in Alaska, and was asked as part of a larger poll that Moore was conducting. The sample size was 568 likely voters, and was conducted Sept. 26-30. The margin of error is 4.1 percent. (I’m waiting for the complete demographics.)
Taylor Bickford, who’s running the legalization campaign, said that the numbers seem a little optimistic to him. Older internal polls showed the campaign winning, but by a slimmer margin, he said. However, the poll is significant in that it’s the first public poll that asks the question exactly as it will appear on the ballot. A highly touted August PPP poll which showed the measure losing messed up the wording in the question. Further, the PPP poll didn’t call cell phones, which are a key demographic in this race.
Here was how the question was phrased:
There is an initiative on the General election ballot that would tax and regulate the production, sale, and use of marijuana in Alaska. Criminal penalties would be removed for adults over the age of 21 who possess up to an ounce of marijuana, and constitutional protections allowing home cultivation would be preserved.
Here’s the results:
- Favor: 57.2%
- Oppose: 38.7%
- Neutral/Undecided: 4.2%