Sen. Mark Begich’s campaign released an ad on Sunday highlighting his record for things that he’s done for the state, and repeating allegations from other ads, one of which has been resoundingly discredited and the other of which is suspect:

GOP challenger Dan Sullivan’s campaign also released an ad, using their best weapons—Sullivan’s wife Julie Fate Sullivan and the Marine Corps–against residency charges that have been leveled against Sullivan. The charges must be doing some damage.

“As somebody whose family has been in Alaska for thousands of years, I have a message for Mark Begich: Alaskans respect military service.  We don’t attack it,” Julie, who is Athabaskan, says.

The charge that Begich is attacking Sullivan for his military service is kind of a stretch, though you can see how they get there, and how other members of the military who have had to leave the state to serve might take offense. Sullivan is a Marine reservist Continue reading →

A new poll of the U.S. Senate race by Harstad Strategic Research who’s polling for Senate Majority PAC  shows that U.S. Sen. Mark Begich is leading GOP challenger Dan Sullivan by 5 percentage points. Here are the numbers:

Polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight strikes a cautionary note:

As other commentators have noted, Alaska is a hard state to poll accurately. What we haven’t seen remarked upon is how those misses have come in one direction, almost always overestimating the performance of Democrats.

Here’s Silver’s chart detailing that historical bias:

The poll does effect the FiveThirtyEight model, but by less than if it weren’t paid for by the Senate Majority PAC.  It says that Sullivan has a 62 percent chance of winning the seat, which is down from 69 percent as a result of this poll.

From the Hill: 

The Senate passed a bill Thursday that would increase compensation benefits for veterans with disabilities. Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) introduced S. 2258, the Veterans’ Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act, which would direct the secretary of Veterans Affairs to increase the rate of veterans’ disability compensation starting on Dec. 1. The cost-of-living increase would match that of Social Security benefits. The bill now heads to the House for further action.

After facing criticism, including by this writer, for skipping out on one of the most important debates of the election season, GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign released the following statement today, saying that he will now face Sen. Mark Begich in  the Kodiak debate on fisheries on Oct. 1:

With the limited time between the primary and the general election, Dan has an aggressive travel schedule and was initially going to be in Bethel on a multi-day swing through southwest Alaska during the Kodiak debate. Dan recognizes the importance of Alaska’s fisheries, and our campaign has rescheduled our southwest swing to ensure that Dan could make the debate. Dan looks forward to a healthy exchange of ideas with Mark Begich on the future of Alaska’s fisheries, and is excited to attend the debate in Kodiak.

Rep. Don Young and Democratic challenger Forrest Dunbar will also debate fisheries on the same night, after the Senate debate.

Eric Thompson was having fun with friends and his wife at a party in South Anchorage on Saturday night. Thompson, who is 56 years old, was the designated driver for the evening, so he wasn’t drinking. But that was okay with him. He was among friends. It was a birthday party for twins Matt and Marc McKenna, who own McKenna Bros Paving, for whom he works as a project supervisor. Marc is an Iron Dog snow machine racer. Other snow machine racers were said to have been there also.

The party was at Korey Klingenmeyer’s house, who is the office manger at McKenna Bros. According to Thompson, Klingenmeyer is a very large, muscular guy, “super easy going, and super friendly.”

Most of the party was outside. A live band was playing. People were dancing. Thompson noticed two girls wearing sunglasses walking with an unusual amount of confidence around the yard. He only noticed them because of the sunglasses. That was odd, because it was at night. His wife told him it was Bristol and Willow Palin. “Does she think she’s Marilyn Monroe?” he said to his wife about Bristol.

Todd and Sarah were there also. Todd races in the Iron Dog. According to another witness, Palin wore platform high-tops with the American flag emblazoned on them. Track Palin was there and so was Bristol’s son, Tripp.

They had all pulled up earlier in the evening in a stretch Hummer limo. It was also Todd’s 50^th birthday.

He, along with the McKenna brothers and Klingenmeyer’s son, who was also celebrating a birthday, were brought in front of the band. Everyone sang Happy Birthday.

It wasn’t long after that things started going horribly wrong, according to Thompson and a handful of others interviewed for this story. Screams erupted. Profanities spewed. Fists flew. Continue reading →

Here’s a statement from the Anchorage Police Department on what’s being called the Saturday night “Palin brawl.” Read about that here and here.

On Saturday, September 6, 2014 just before midnight Anchorage police responded to a report of a verbal and physical altercation taking place between multiple subjects outside of a residence located on the 900 block of Harbor Circle. A preliminary investigation by police revealed that a party had been taking place at a nearby residence and a fight had broken out between multiple subjects outside of the residence. At the time of the incident, none of the involved parties wanted to press charges and no arrests were made. However, the case is still an active investigation and is being reviewed by APD and the Municipal Prosecutors Office. Alcohol was believed to have been a factor in the incident. Some of the Palin family members were in attendance at the party.

I wrote about the Saturday-night Palin family brawl  in my Loose Lips column—my version of a gossip column–hoping that some other news source, preferably a local news source, would pick it up, and run with it. I’m a one-woman show here. I’m the writer, the editor, and the business manager, and I’m trying to cover the state’s political races. As I write this, I’m at a health care conference in Girdwood, trying to learn as much as I can about why healthcare costs are so astronomically high in Alaska, when they have appeared to be declining elsewhere. (Expect a post on that later). All this is to say that I have little time to track down the details of the brawl. And even if I did, I’d probably pass. I spent many years covering Palin. It’s a rabbit hole every time.

But I thought I should update, because people seem to really want to know. Frankly, I would too if I were them, and weren’t at a health care conference, etc…

So, here it goes: What I have heard since, without much trying, and what I knew then, is that the cops were called after the brawl. It’s confirmed that the Palins, all of them, were in some way involved in a fight at a house in Anchorage where a party was going on. Bristol’s son, Tripp was at the party. I have confirmed from multiple sources that Bristol punched someone repeatedly, and that charges might be filed. I spoke to a source yesterday who witnessed part of it. She said that some in the crowd were trying to restrain Sarah, who was clawing to get involved in the fight, which had moved to the cul-de-sac outside of the house. She was also screaming loudly. She wore platform high-tops with the American flag on them, and Bristol wore big, round shades. As I reported, Track was at some point in the night, shirtless.

The whole family arrived in a stretch Hummer limo, and had to be told to leave the house.

That’s what I know. Stay tuned, no doubt, for more.

Update: Executive director of the Iron Dog, Kevin Kastner, wants people to know that this was in no way an Iron Dog party, though some Iron Dog racers may have been there.

Below are reactions from Alaska’s congressional delegation and federal candidates to President Obama’s speech on his plan to fight the Islamic State jihadist group called ISIS, or ISIL. Obama said on Wednesday night that he was prepared to order expanded airstrikes in Syria, and send 475 more U.S. military troops to Iraq. He will also urge Congress to approve funds for training moderate rebel forces in Syria, something that Sen. Mark Begich doesn’t support. Obama did not give a fixed date for when the operation might end, and according to news reports, his top aides have suggested it might last beyond his time in office.

The statements are from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Sen. Mark Begich, Rep. Don Young. U.S. Democratic House candidate Forrest Dunbar and GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan.  Continue reading →

The National Education Association Advocacy Fund released an ad on Wednesday, attacking GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, for his role in a settlement that Alaska received for the state’s retirement trust funds while he was attorney general. Sullivan has touted his role in negotiating the settlement, which some have criticized as being too low. His campaign ran an ad recently, featuring a school teacher who said that the settlement helped Alaska teachers. Hence the NEA’s involvement on Sen. Mark Begich’s behalf and its pushback.

Also on Wednesday, the National Association of Teachers- Alaska (NEA-Alaska), the Alaska Professional Fire Fighters Association (AKPFFA), and Alaska Public Employees Association (APEA), held a press conference, criticizing the settlement.

A Begich campaign press release about that event included quotes from union members criticizing the deal. It also included a picture of a fake check for $91 million made out to a New York Law Firm with Dan Sullivan’s signature on it. The memo line of the fake check reads, “Money that should have gone to hard-working Alaskans.”

However, Alaskans from both sides of the aisle question whether the criticism is fair.

The backstory: Mercer Inc., a financial actuarial firm, knowingly gave bad actuarial advice to the managers of the Public Employees’ Retirement and Teachers’ Retirement Systems. The state’s suit was filed against the Wall Street firm in 2007. The Department of Law asked the Legislature in 2008 for $12 million to sue. It refused. Some members of the Legislature, including Rep. Mike Hawker and Sen. Bert Stedman weren’t sure that the state had a case. It’s like “suing the weatherman for a bad forecast,” Hawker said at the time. Both urged the Department of Law to hire a lawfirm on contingency. Continue reading →

About 65 people showed for the fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker and lt. gov. candidate Byron Mallott on Monday night. It wasn’t the usual Dem crowd. These people were a little bit older, a little less enviro, a little bit more stable. A lot more excited. When Mallott gave a speech, he said that one thing that had changed was all the Acuras and Lexuses parked out front.  A standout: Sterling Emmal, one side of her hair ashy blond, the other side dark. Stylishly rag-tag, and, as she put it “tortured.” This will be Emmal’s first general election voting experience. She is 18 years old, and she takes her civic duty very seriously. Until a few days before, she was a committed Democrat. She changed her registration to protest the fact that Hollis French is no longer on the ticket. She is a die-hard French supporter, and can’t understand why the party didn’t choose him to top the ticket. She stood up to shake Walker’s hand and to try to figure out if she could vote for him, a Republican. He’s good at these things and he was patient with her but much of what he said didn’t sink in because he spoke in platitudes and she was so nervous. But there was something about him that she liked. Awhile later, after she calmed down, she tried again over the buffet table. They talked about his commitment to education. That worked better. She’s not there yet, but it was something that she could hold on to. “Maybe I could vote for him” she said, and she looked relieved. Among others spotted: Ira Perman, former lt. gov. candidate Bob Williams, Rep. Andy Josephson, former ANGDA guy Scott Heyworth, Bea Rose, Hal and Barbara Gazaway, pollster Jean Craciun, former Teamster boss Mike Kinney, woman-hall-of-famer Eleanor Andrews, and Oscar, the ubiquitous flower peddler.

Last week, I reported that Tom Wright was rumored to be coming aboard the Parnell-Sullivan campaign. Now, it’s official. He’ll be taking over the reigns as campaign manager replacing Jerry Gallagher. Continue reading →

GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has announced that he’s not going to attend the Senate fisheries debate in Kodiak in October. His spokesperson said that he’ll be planning on traveling in rural Alaska during that time. The last debate in Kodiak was pre-primary. Sullivan was scheduled for Marine reservist duty then and couldn’t attend.

Sullivan’s campaign said that 20 organizations have shown an interest in hosting debates, and if they accepted all of them, that’s all they would be doing.

“The Sullivan for Senate campaign is currently finalizing our debate schedule – which will include ample opportunities for Dan and Mark to debate the many issues facing Alaska and the country,” Sullivan spokesperson Mike Anderson said.

That’s all probably true, except that this is a particularly important issue. The fishing industry is Alaska’s largest private-sector employer and fish are the state’s main export product. Imagine a Senate candidate from Iowa, say, skipping a debate on corn. Continue reading →

The National Republican Senate Committee is airing two new commercials that target Sen. Mark Begich’s time as mayor of Anchorage. Both star real Alaskans, such as Anchorage Assemblyman Chris Birch, Alaska Pasta Company owner Hope Nelson, Alaska Family Action’s Donald Ross, Downing Electric’s past president and shareholder Aaron Downing,  and Gary Bader. All focus on how much Begich spent during his tenure as mayor, statements that have been disputed by Begich’s campaign. (See those ads here and here).

Crossroads GPS, the Karl Rove controlled super-PAC, also released an ad on Monday focusing on Begich’s time as mayor. It’s spending $850,000 to air it statewide. See that one below.

On Monday, the Begich campaign defended his time as mayor:

In 2003 Begich inherited a $33 million debt, which he turned around by working with the Anchorage Assembly and city employees. Begich’s financial stewardship earned Anchorage a “AA” bond rating and put the city in a strong position to withstand the nationwide recessions and stock market crash that devastated cities across the country.

Standard and Poor’s did give the city a AA bond rating and said that in 2008, the city, under Begich, had been well managed. However, it also relied on the state’s overall economic condition, Continue reading →

Here’s a tweet from state Sen. Hollis French that caught my eye:

Parnell administration does nothing to reduce health insurance costs for Alaskans, then complains about the results. http://t.co/IvRpbM5K7N

— Sen. Hollis French (@SenHollisFrench) September 8, 2014

French is responding to the recent politicized announcement that rates for those covered under individual plans through Premera Blue Cross are going to increase next year by as much as 37 percent. As Dermot Cole pointed out in his ADN column, there doesn’t appear to be public information available to justify the rates. Nor does it appear that the state has any intention of negotiating the rates. And they could. In Washington State, insurers, including Premera, asked for an average of an 8.6 percent increase for next year. The Washington Commissioner of Insurance, who is consistently consumer friendly, found that the increases weren’t justified and instead only allowed a 1.9 percent increase on average.

I asked French what Gov. Sean Parnell’s adminstration could do to reduce costs. Here’s what he wrote back: Continue reading →

Below is the press release that Gov. Sean Parnell sent out about the Alaska LNG Project’s request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC, to begin the process to officially file for the natural gas project. The release also says that the state entered into an MOU with Japan.

The Japanese MOU doesn’t mean all that much. MOUs come and MOUs go. However, if played right, it could be used by Parnell to help inoculate himself against candidate Bill Walker’s accusations that Parnell is allowing the producers to control the fate and the market for Alaska’s natural gas. Don’t, however, hold your breath.

The pre-FERC filing is more substantial, and at the very least indicates that the companies still see a market for Alaska LNG, said Larry Persily, the Federal Coordinator for an Alaska North Slope natural gas pipeline.

However, we’ve been here before. Two projects in the last four or so years have also been through the pre-FERC application process, and both gave up before they got to full FERC because the gas market in the lower 48 tanked. Continue reading →