The latest data from the highly suspect New York Times/CBS/YouGov “opt in” online poll is in. It shows that Republicans have an edge in taking the Senate in the midterms. That’s not surprising. The last data from this survey showed similar results, as do other “good” polls. What has shifted is the numbers coming out of Alaska. When the last data was crunched pre-primary, Sen. Mark Begich had a 12-point lead over GOP challenger Dan Sullivan. In this set of numbers, Sullivan leads Begich by 6 points.

No doubt the numbers will be used by Sullivan’s supporters for fundraising purposes and to bolster his campaign. However, we should all approach the findings with caution.  The methodology used by the poll is highly controversial because it uses “opt-in” respondents, basically meaning that people had to go to them online to get surveyed. Such survey methods fly in the face of what has been considered scientifically sound polling. Until this election cycle, the New York Times itself refused to publish such polls.

And then there’s the Alaska problem. Apparently,  it has been difficult for the New York Times to find people in Alaska who want to participate:

Alaska, however, is a state where there are reasons to have reservations about the quality of the data. The panel had less than 500 respondents, despite recruitment efforts. There should be fairly low confidence in the exact finding.

Which begs the question as to why they’re publishing it at all.

The Republicans and Gov. Sean Parnell are taking the Walker-Mallott ticket seriously. Good sources say that Republican strategist and political operative Tom Wright, who is considered to be one of the best in the state, will be taking a leave of absence from his position as COS to the Alaska Speaker of the House to join the Parnell campaign team. Other unconfirmed rumors suggest that some other top talent may be on board soon.

Parnell should be taking things seriously. The Dems are fired up about the Walker-Mallott merger. They smell a win, which is a new experience for many of them. Perhaps they should have long ago chosen a Republican to head their ticket. Why not, if you can win? Aren’t partly labels just labels, after all? Indeed, throwing off those labels seemed to make many of them giddy on Friday night at the Democrat’s Art of Politics, a art-auction fundraiser for the Democrat Party, which supposedly was the brainchild of IBEW’s Melinda Taylor. It was a big hit. About 200 or so showed. So many, in fact that there weren’t enough items to bid on, and people walked away with money burning in their pockets, which, because we aren’t doing labels anymore, might just show up in Republican coffers. Spotted: Vic Fischer and his wife Jane Angvik, who are treated like royally at these things. Travel guru Scott McMurran was there. Assemblywoman Elvi Gray-Jackson whose dress elicited oohs and aahs. A particularly ebullient Elsun Lawson; a dapper former Lt. Gov. Steve McAlpine, who likes to be called “Stephen.” Assemblyman Pete Petersen, Michelle Scannell and state Senate candidate Clare Ross huddled in the hallway, no doubt planning some sort of massive takeover of something. Lots of legislators were there. Congressional candidate Forrest Dunbar was a late arrival, and received a warm round of applause.

From an interview with KCAW in Sitka: Continue reading →

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is on air in Alaska, with a “multi-million dollar” ad buy, hitting GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan on Medicaid and Social Security. The ad features Gladys Meacock, whose husband has Alzheimer’s. “Our lives are hard enough. We don’t need Dan Sullivan making them even tougher,” Meacock says.

Sullivan has promised to work to repeal ObamaCare, which has saved seniors an average of $900 a year just on prescription drugs. If the law were repealed, seniors would also lose access to a host of preventative care benefits, including mammograms and colonoscopies. Also as pointed out in the ad, Sullivan has said that he would be willing to vote on a plan that would raise the age of retirement for younger generations.

Watch here:

Until recently, Sen. Mark Begich has run what many would say was a flawless campaign. He’s everywhere in this state, reaching out to as many different interest groups as possible. His attacks on his challenger, GOP Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, for not supporting women’s rights, for not supporting Alaska Native rights, for not supporting the elderly, hunters, fisherman, to name a few, are no doubt working. Sullivan’s bruised. But he’s far from down.

An attack that began airing on Friday of Labor Day weekend was no doubt intended to try to take him out, and it might have worked had it been done differently and played at a different time. We’ll know more when polls start to roll in, but if wide condemnation from the national media—from Politico to MSNBC to the Washington Post, to Jon Stewart, some of which is summarized below–means anything, it appears to have backfired.

The ad in question said that Sullivan was to blame for the 2013 horrific murders of two elderly grandparents and the sexual assault of a two-year-old girl. The accused is Jerry Active, who had a record and who committed the crimes within hours of getting out of jail. Active’s trial is set for September 22.

He was out of jail due to a light sentence that he received, and shouldn’t have, as part of a plea deal that was cut while Sullivan was the state’s attorney general, and which bore his name. However, the plea deal was cut as a result of a mistake on a database that was maintained by the Department of Public Safety. The mistake was made prior to Sullivan’s tenure at the Department of Law, as were all of Active’s crimes.

The family’s lawyer, Bryon Collins, asked that the Begich campaign take it down. Eventually, they did, but it took a while.

The reasons for the media’s admonishments vary. Some focus on the “Willie Horton” type ad. Some focus on the timing and the bungling of it. Others focus on the veracity.  All seem to strike a resounding chorus that this was a major misstep by Begich in an otherwise well-orchestrated campaign.

Here’s some summaries of some of the media coverage: Continue reading →

Bill Walker, with the blessings of the Democratic Party, will be running as governor as that party’s “unaffiliated” candidate. One of the things that has made Democrats nervous is that he’s pro-life and is against gay marriage. However, he has repeatedly said, this time around at least, that the would not push that agenda. At Tuesday’s press conference, he said that social issues were not his focus, and that the laws that are currently on the books are going to continue to be the law.  (It might be worthy of note that Senate candidate Dan Sullivan has also said that social issues weren’t his focus. although with less clarity. Nonetheless, his beliefs about social issues have been unacceptable to Democrats.)

There’s no reason to believe that Walker isn’t telling the truth, but it’s important to know where Walker stands on these issue.  Four years ago, when Walker ran for governor in 2010, he expressed his views clearly. He completed at least two surveys on social issues: A survey from Alaska Family Action  and from Alaska Right to Life.

From Alaska Family Action survey

Alaska Right to Life is looking for the complete survey that he filled out then. But the director, Christopher Kurka, remembers the interview that the group had with Walker. From that interview and from what he does have of the survey, Kurka said that they would have endorsed him then if the organization’s policy was to endorse two candidates. As it was, Gov. Sean Parnell got the endorsement.

“Bill Walker told us everything we wanted to hear,” Kurka said, including telling them that he was committed to passing pro-life legislation.

Walker filled out another survey for Alaska Family Action in 2010.  (Read the full survey here: AK-VoterGuide-Gov-LtGov-081210).

Here’s a summary of what Walker said then on that survey: Continue reading →

For many across the state, including this writer, the excitement and bipartisan spirit that has accompanied the merger of an unaffiliated ticket comprised of Bill Walker, a Republican and Byron Mallott, a Democrat, is infectious. It’s a new day in Alaska, they said at the press conference on Tuesday officially announcing the merger. We’re doing it for the best of the state, they said.

It all felt familiar. Déjà vu for the politico in you. Scott Heyworth, a former Palin disciple, said to me, “This feels like when Sarah Palin won, but better!”

Indeed it did feel like 2005, when Palin won her party’s nomination for governor. Her message then was largely centered around creating a bi-partisan team that was going to do what was right for Alaska, party politics be damned.

Walker vowed that he was going to “field the best and brightest Alaskans across the state.” He said, “Partisan politics will not have a place in our administration.” Continue reading →

The release below just came from Mark Begich’s campaign, which claims that Senate candidate Dan Sullivan’s campaign was involved in an “orchestrated attempt to deliver Alaska’s U.S. Senate seat for Dan Sullivan,” by getting Vic Kohring to drop his bid as Alaska Independent Party’s Senate candidate.

It might even be true, but given recent events, it’s a startling charge. It comes on the heels of Begich’s people being highly active in getting Democratic Party leaders to nullify a gubernatorial state primary election, in order to put a Republican on the top of the ticket for the first time in history. Why did Begich want this? For one, it plays nicely into his theme about party affiliation mattering less than doing what’s right for Alaska, and is music to the ears of independent voters. It has the potential to breathe life into what was a listless campaign. Continue reading →

Below is the press release the University of Alaska sent out today about President Pat Gamble calling on the Board of Regents to review his retention bonus, which he called “the elephant in the room.” He’d like to “put this issue to rest,” he said. In other words, it sounds like he’s asking the regents to rescind the bonus, which has gotten lots of negative attention and would likely be used in an upcoming political race, or two, or ten. Continue reading →

I’m writing a longer story about the Bill Walker-Byron Mallott merger announced today. In the meantime, here’s some tweets from the press conference announcing the official “unaffiliated” team.

Byron Mallott says @walkerforakgov ‘outsigned him’ as he points to giant sign behind him #akgov pic.twitter.com/QMK9ko98Sm

— Emily Carlson (@emilyreporting) September 2, 2014

There is a viable Alaska Gov candidate who supports Medicaid expansion & public education. Am I dreaming? I am, right? #akgov

— amory lelake (@lelakis) September 2, 2014

Walker: We’ll veto some things. We’re in a deficit. … I truly am a fiscal conservative. #akelect #akgov — Matt Buxton (@FDNMPolitics) September 2, 2014

Wonder just what he’ll cut to balance the budget. #akelect #akgov — Matt Buxton (@FDNMPolitics) September 2, 2014

Continue reading →

The Alaska Democrats took a historic vote on Monday night to support a “unified” ticket which would combine the candidacies of Independent Republican gubernatorial candidates Bill Walker and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Byron Mallott. Walker will run as the governor. Mallott will run as the lieutenant governor. The ballot will list them as “unaffiliated.” Walker, who is a registered Republican, will have to change his party status to undeclared. Mallott can continue to be a registered Democrat if he chooses.

If both Walker and Mallott agree—which is all but certain—it will be the first time since Alaska began to vote that there won’t be a Democrat running for governor, which is troubling for some.

But many who had been pushing the merger have been saying that there was no way that Gov. Sean Parnell could be beat in a three-way race, and that beating Parnell was more important than party allegiance.

Too, on the big issue of the current oil tax repeal debate, Walker and Mallott are in sync.

Party rules dictate that the change of the ticket be voted on by the Democratic State Central Committee, which has about 140 members. Continue reading →

The deal wasn’t yet cut between Bill Walker and Byron Mallott to join forces and tickets when Walker showed up at the Democrats’ Bartlett Dinner on Friday, with Malcom and Cindy Roberts in tow. Word is that Walker was beaming, which got the Dems beaming, which got people buzzing, and probably buzzed. Let’s hope anyway.

Alaska’s most eligible bachelor might be off the market again. Democratic House Minority Leader Chris Tuck was seen holding hands while strolling the Alaska Fair grounds with the talkative Republican talk-radio hostess, and on-and-off-again girlfriend Bernadette Wilson.

One person used the words “dignified and inspiring” to describe West-side Senate candidate Clare Ross’ fundraiser on Thursday night, which attracted about 50 people. Word is that she quietly worked the room and made every person feel important. Her speech focused on education and improving the budget process. Someone described Ross as having “it” which is about the best way to describe political magnetism. Continue reading →