The political video of the day features Sen. Lisa Murkowski leaping into freezing Alaskan waters, as part of the ALS “Ice Bucket Challenge.” ALS is commonly known as Lou Gehrig’s Disease. The tradition is to raise money for the disease by dumping a bucket of ice water on your head. Murkowski obviously took it a long-legged step further.
Here’s the latest ad from the pro-Mark Begich super-PAC Put Alaska First. It’s the first television ad the PAC has released that includes Mead Treadwell. Take that for what you will. Polls have shown that Dan Sullivan is leading the primary-pack. But Put Alaska First is also polling, and it might see things that other pollsters aren’t. Anchorage-based Jim Lottsfeldt, who runs the PAC, declined comment on whether or not the PAC is going to air another ad before next Tuesday’s primary.
State candidates filed seven-day reports to APOC Tuesday—seven days before the primary election—documenting how much they have raised in the last 20 days, from July 19 to August 9. From now until the primary, candidates will have to report contributions within 24 hours of receiving them.
Remember, primaries can be won more through grassroots support and with name recognition than in funds. But a glimpse of the reports does give you a window in the strengths of a campaign. Below are some of the more interesting filings, starting with the big race.
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For a piece on the GOP primary Senate race in Alaska. the AP’s Becky Bohrer probes candidate Joe Miller on whether or not he has plans to run as a third-party candidate. Miller told Boher that he’s not considering that move, because “I don’t think it would be successful,” he said.
The talk is that if he did so, Miller would likely try to run as a Libertarian. However, the current Libertarian candidate, Mark Fish–although he is a friend and he has worked for Miller in the past–has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t step aside for Miller because Miller isn’t a Libertarian. Fish is.
The Wall Street Journal published a terrifying story, datelined in Soldotna, about Alaska’s economy headlined, “In U.S. Energy Boom, Alaska Is Unlikely Loser.” As it points out, Alaska used to be the second highest oil-producing state in the country. Now we’re fourth, behind Texas, North Dakota, and California. Production has dropped 75 percent since its peak of 2 million barrels a day in 1989. The state’s gross domestic product decreased by 2.5 percent in 2013, while every other state increased its GDP. And the state’s unemployment rate in 2013 was 6.4 percent—eclipsing the national average. More people left Alaska than settled in the state between 2012 and 2013, while North Dakota added residents, the WSJ reports.
Here’s a chart that the newspaper put together to go with its story:
It gets worse: Continue reading
Two loyal readers–Lynn Willis and Jerry Hood–share their thoughts on how Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan’s veto of “A037 light” will impact the November race, Willis agrees with my analysis that it will. Hood not so much. Read on. Continue reading
Here’s U.S Rep. Don Young’s first tv ad of the campaign entitled “Intense.” As Alaska’s sole congressman for 41 years, and the longest serving Republican in the U.S. House, it must be hard to try to come up with something new about yourself. What I learned from this one? Young isn’t perfect. He’s fighting for the state. Though you might not always know it, he takes things very seriously. And it looks like he collects glassware.
U.S. Sen. Mark Begich’s campaign got a boost Monday when Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan announced that he was going to veto a highly controversial labor bill. The bill, originally A037, which morphed into “A037 light,” was passed by the Anchorage Assembly last week, and was intended to be a compromise. It wasn’t a big enough one for Sullivan however, who has gone to war with the unions like no other mayor in recent history.
Unless the Anchorage Assembly overrides his veto, which is unlikely, voters will get to decide in November’s general election whether or not to repeal the original A037, which was anathema to the unions and which will galvanize them across the state, particularly in Anchorage, the state’s main population center. If the unions win, the Sullivan-era law will go away and will send a strong message to public officials not to take strident stands against the unions.
This will likely help all Democrats on the ballot and might even help independent gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker, who has gone out of his way to court the union vote. Mayor Sullivan will be on the ticked as Gov. Sean Parnell’s running mate. But Begich will likely get the most out of it. Continue reading
The Council of State Governments (CSG) and CSG West are both having their national conference in Anchorage starting this weekend through the first half of this week. More than 1400 people are expected to attend. One of the biggest names on the list is CNN political analyst David Gergen who has been an advisor to four U.S. Presidents. But most will be politicians, some will be Alaska state politicians. And although the subjects will vary from the economy to energy and land policy issues, you can expect most of the Alaskans attending will be buzzing about the announcement that Rep. Craig Johnson is going for Mike Chenault’s House Speaker position. Already, I’m told, people are jockeying for positions under the new organization.
Biggest news from Sunday’s KTVA/ADN GOP Senate debate:
.@DanSullivan2014 says he did not vote for @lisamurkowski in 2010. #akdebate
— Becky Bohrer (@beckybohrerap) August 11, 2014
Don Young enjoyed a belated birthday celebration on the deck of former Gov. Bill Sheffield’s Continue reading
If there was any doubt before, there’s little now that Sen. Mark Begich is going to make women’s issues a big part of his campaign. Today and tomorrow, Begich will be hosting Cecile Richards, President of Planned Parenthood Action Fund, for various events. (The press release is below.)
Numbers to keep in mind: About 257,000 men were registered to vote in Alaska’s 2012 general election. Only 147,588 voted. In that same election, about 248,000 women were registered to vote and 152,075 did so. In other words, women vote at a greater percentage than do men.
The majority of Alaskans are said to be at least nominally pro-choice. However, as evidenced by the make up of the Legislature, choice issues haven’t been a main general-election vote-driver in the state. But now, with the Hobby Lobby case and a more conservative Supreme Court, the issue will likely resonate more with women and pro-choice men than it did in the past.
Here’s the release and details of Richards’ visit: Continue reading
From a comment by Lynn Willis, responding to Brad Keithley’s announcement that he will put $200,000 of his own money into going after state candidates who claim to be fiscally conservative when campaigning, but who aren’t so fiscally conservative when they’re in Juneau:
While I applaud Mr. Keithley’s efforts, I fear that without serious changes within the institution of the legislature picking off a few fiscal offenders will accomplish very little.
Governor Parnell, despite having the constitutional authority to do so, will do nothing. At best he will spin the numbers (as he did with the pension buy down) to create the best mirage of fiscal management he can.
Here is what will happen regardless of who is in Juneau. The majority caucus will first meet in secret (because they have exempted themselves from state open meeting law) where they will remind the members that any caucus member who fails to support the next budget will be kicked out of the caucus and banished to political irrelevancy. Next they will meet with constituents to complain about how they are running out of money but “formula spending” ties their hands and it is the fault of Alaskans that they have to spend so much. Then it’s off to remote Juneau where these committee chairs will, without explanation and against their own legislative rules, hold bills to death often in a trade for even more spending. Next, the Governor will sign yet another record breaking budget into law while the opiate of the PFD calms the masses and the march to the fiscal cliff will continue.
Tune in to KTUU – Channel 2 on Sunday morning for a debate between Anchorage Rep. Les Gara and Andrew Halcro on Ballot Measure #1. Both are fine debaters and neither are known for pulling punches.. I suspect there will be verbal ones thrown and you might even learn something.
The GOP senate candidates will be debating with KTVA and ADN reporters Sunday evening live from 7:00 – 8:30 pm at the UAA Wendy Williamson Auditorium. It’s open to the public. If you want to watch it at home, KTVA – Channel 11 will broadcast the first hour of the debate or you can watch in its entirety on GCI Cable Channel 1.
Like other tea party candidates across the country who have run in this cycle’s Senate GOP primaries, Joe Miller has focused on taking a hard line on immigration, particularly in the final days leading up to the primary. Here’s an image from a recent mailer sent by his campaign:
Like those other tea party Senate candidates, who, it should be noted, have all lost their races, Miller has repeatedly said that he doesn’t support any sort of amnesty. On Friday, he released a video of his campaign staff dropping off a “No Amnesty” pledge to Dan Sullivan’s and Mead Treadwell’s office, set to what sounds like rapping chipmunks. Here it is: Continue reading
Oregon based Moore Information, which is the pollster for U. S. Senate candidate Dan Sullivan, shows that Sullivan is surging in the final weeks of the primary season. The most recent poll by Moore was conducted Aug 4-5 of 500 likely Republican primary voters. It shows Sullivan getting 42 percent of the GOP primary vote, Treadwell getting 25 percent and Miller 17 percent. About 16 percent remain undecided.
It’s the biggest lead so far for Sullivan. In the past months, Moore has had Sullivan up anywhere from 8 to 12 points, with as many as 22 percent undecided. Other pollsters have Sullivan also leading, but by less than Moore.
According to Moore: Continue reading
Current Alaska Speaker of the House Mike Chenault is “leaning” towards going for his fourth term as speaker, he said. If a majority of his caucus decides to support him again in November, shortly after the general election, it will make him the longest serving speaker in the state’s history. He’s survived for so long because he’s cunning, wily and from most accounts, he’s done a good job of keeping things moving and keeping his members relatively content. As content, that is, as 30 power-hungry politicians can be.
But Anchorage Rep. Craig Johnson, who’s been in the House since 2006 and is currently Rules Chair, thinks it’s time for a change. Johnson said in an interview on Thursday night that if he wins his House seat in November—which is likely—he’ll also be vying to be speaker. He’s been Continue reading